Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 021412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A COUPLE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SPECKLED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 14Z TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. STRATUS LIKELY GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT THE INVERSION NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY. TRAILING UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON CURRENT READING AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS READINGS. EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO STAY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY
COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST ON THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.   FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY COMMENCE BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KIND AND KLAF ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS WHICH COULD
LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. AT THAT POINT...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CATEGORY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS TAF SITES FALL INTO CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD



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