Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 271446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. DECREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS DRY AND HAS NOT EVEN
BEGUN TO CU UP YET. OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV REMNANTS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT/LOCALIZED
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES STILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM BEFORE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THIS SO
THINK GENERALLY LOW 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
COULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE DURING ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

AT THIS TIME...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT BECAUSE
DRY GROUND WILL REDUCE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS NEEDS TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JK

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