Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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887
FXUS63 KIND 270817
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion...correction
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Synopsis...Near Term...Short Term and Aviation sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Several weather systems will move across Indiana...the first
one early today and another one this weekend producing heavy
rain.   Finally a third system will bring a chance of
more showers by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Low pressure was over northeast Illinois and a cold front extended
south along the Indiana Illinois border.  Showers and a few thunder-
storms will be the rule this morning as the cold front moves east.
High res models indicate showers will diminish with time and will
go with high chance POPS east and central sections after 12Z.
Showers will end all areas by midday as cold front moves rapidly
to the east.

It will be mostly cloudy breezy and cool after the cold front moves
through.  Temperatures may fall into the upper 40s over western
sections this morning and struggle to reach 60 this afternoon.
Raised high temperatures slightly over east sections today and went
near or slightly below a MOS blend west.  Lows tonight will be from
the middle 40s north to around 50 south which is near a MOS blend.

A fairly tight pressure gradient will be across our area today
with winds of 15 to 20 knots and gusts to 20 to 25 knots.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Models are in fairly good agreement and will go with a blended
solution working fairly well.

Models develop a warm front across Kentucky Friday and move it slowly
north by Saturday as low pressure strengthens over the southern
plains and eventually moves into the middle and upper Mississippi
valley by Sunday.  Showers will develop Friday and become heavy at
times late Friday night through the weekend.   Flooding will the
main concern as lots of gulf moisture moves north into the Ohio
valley and strong UVV occurs along the warm front.

SPC has the southern half of Indiana in a slight risk of severe
weather Friday.  But I believe this is too far north Friday as front
will be still south of the Ohio river.   Will go with an increasing
chance of thunderstorms Friday night as the warm front starts to
lift to the north.
I believe Saturday will see a better threat of severe weather as the
warm front moves north across our region.

in most cases stayed close to a MOS Blend on temperatures Friday and
Friday night and went slightly above in the south Saturday as warm
front starts to lift north.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

The active weather that will begin early in the forecast period
will continue into the long term portion of the forecast. Low
pressure will push northeast into the Great Lakes early in the
period, with the cold front moving through the area Sunday night.
Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front
with heavy rain and flooding remaining a distinct threat with
precipitable water values approaching the climatological maximum
for the time of year.

Additional showers will be a possibility with the upper low Monday
into Monday night, and then again Tuesday into mid week as
additional upper level disturbances and then a more organized
upper level trough move into the region. Convective indices show a
limited thunder threat and will keep it out of these periods for
now.

Blended initialization handled things well with only minor tweaks
required.


&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 27/0900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions.
No other changes are needed at this time.  Previous aviation
discussion follows...

An area of rain showers with a few thunderstorms will spread east
overnight and slowly weaken.  Area will spread into KHUF and KLAF
sites within an hour and reach KINd towards 09z.  Lightning has
diminished and will mainly go with showers or VCSH after the
first few hours.  Ceiling will lower to MVFR with arrival of
cold front and then improve to VFR ceilings this afternoon as weak
high pressure approaches from the west.

South winds around 10 knots will become southwest around 15 knots
towards daybreak and west this afternoon.  Could see gusts to
around 25 knots.  Winds will diminish tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JH



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