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000
FXUS63 KIND 182029
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND AS WELL. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH BEFORE
00Z WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.

AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH /AS STORMS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT/ AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH POPS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE DRY
ALL AREAS BEFORE 06Z.

THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 02Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS SINCE
DRIER AIR IS TAKING IS TIME COMING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON SKY AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH WITH MOST FEATURES THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE NAM KEEPS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THEN GENERATES ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT AT TIMES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER THE NAM LOOKS TOO HIGH WITH ITS
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THUS BELIEVE
NAM/S CONVECTION IS ALSO OVERDONE...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH
IN CONTROL. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND WHICH
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A FEW SHORT WAVES CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PATTERN WELL SO DID NOT
DEVIATE EXCEPT FOR QUALITY CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KHUF AND KBMG...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY PORTRAYED WELL IN TEMPO GROUPS. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY VCTS AT KIND AND KLAF SINCE MAIN THREAT FOR
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
INDIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ARRIVING AT TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODELS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING BY 19Z-21Z. SPC HAS CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
WILL STICK WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS FOR THE 19Z THROUGH 01Z
TIMEFRAME. AS CONVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING CAN BETTER TIME THE
ARRIVAL WITH FM AND TEMPO GROUPS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED CU THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO OUR REGION.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

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