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000
FXUS63 KIND 140803
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
403 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RELATIVELY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. AS
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK APPEAR LIKELY TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS UP TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES...WITH
PERHAPS A STRAY GUST TO NEAR 40 POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED
IN THE HWO AND PERHAPS AN SPS...BUT FALLS SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND ONLY WEAK LIFT EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

ON TEMPS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CONSENSUS APPEARED REASONABLE
BASED ON WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...AND AGAIN DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
EXPECT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM IT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT NO FURTHER. WILL CARRY LOW TO MID
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF SUNDAY...WITH LOWER POPS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
SUNDAY...OR EVEN JUST STRAIGHT SNOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP
EXITS THE AREA...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE
TO A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW. IF ANYTHING...MODELS MAY BE BRINGING
PRECIP A BIT TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN A 1030 PLUS MILLIBAR HIGH
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT COMPARED
TO 850 NUMBERS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  HOWEVER...RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS CENTRAL
INDIANA.  AT THIS TIME...THE GFS FORMS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER ILLINOIS
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE EURO IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE.  BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
THOUGH...AND THAT/S HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LATEST INITIALIZATION...SO
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.  TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VFR BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AND GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND
20 KT AT 12Z...AND AROUND 30 KT BY 15Z...TO NEAR 35 KT IN SOME
LOCATIONS BY 18Z.

BEFORE THOSE WINDS PICK UP...THERE WAS CONCERN EARLIER ABOUT
POTENTIAL LLWS FOR TONIGHT...BUT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
RISK AFTER LOOKING FURTHER AT MODEL SOUNDINGS. SO...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF LLWS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD 00Z SAT...SW WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE W AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF

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