Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1036 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM...HUMID AND
STORMY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY BY LATE
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND ALLOWING FOR MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS EXPANDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S AT 14Z.

CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT. CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
PROTECTION OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS STILL BELOW 1 INCH AND AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR BELOW 15KFT. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WABASH VALLEY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT HRRR LOOKS FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING
PRECIP INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE AMBIENT AIRMASS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY IMPACT...LIMITING SUNSHINE AND TEMP RISES A BIT MORE
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ANY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF IN FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SHORT TERM WILL PROVIDE MANY CHALLENGES TO THE
FORECAST..NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY PM...ILLUSTRATED BY THE DAY2 SPC OUTLOOK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET SETTLES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES THERE. IN ADDITION...UPPER JET WILL STRETCH OUT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH EMBEDDED JET MAXIMA AIDING IN RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO...WITH ABUNDANT
FORCING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...POTENTIAL SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FROM
THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT STORMS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SIDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THE
00Z GFS AND JUL 24 00Z ECM LOOK TOO WARM BY SATURDAY CONSIDERING
CLOUD COVER AND EFFECT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
DEPART THE AREA. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THAT POINT...MODELS BECOME
INCONSISTENT FOR THE END OF LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS PICKING UP ON AN UPPER TROUGH FOR THURSDAY...BUT
IS STRUGGLING WITH TIMING. DUE TO THE MODEL INCONSISTENCY...WILL
NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS PERIODS OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT OUTLYING SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
HAVE ENDED...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW CONTINUE TO HOLD
STEADY. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.
AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE VCTS AT
KLAF FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES COULD IMPROVE AFTER SAT 12Z
AS WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 7
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT KIND AROUND MID-MORNING TOMORROW WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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