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000
FXUS63 KIND 200156
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE
EAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRINGING COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEN IT WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

0200Z UPDATE...FOR REST OF TONIGHT ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS PRODUCING A LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS AND ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WENT CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH A LITTLE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS LATE. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
+10 CELSIUS SUNDAY. UPSTREAM WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND
+10 SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THIS LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WHICH IS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE A MOS BLEND
ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A
COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY CATEGORY
MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHEST MU CAPES OF 400 TO 700 J/KG OCCUR
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN OHIO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
INDIANA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN OUR SOUTHEAST
EARLY TUESDAY...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND MUCH COOLER TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS. MONDAY COULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER AS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED THAT TREND IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM...BUT AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE FAR WEST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SOME
STORMS...THEN AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

GFS IS SLOWER WITH AN UPPER LOW AND KEEPS IT OVER THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY...WHILE 00Z ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE. GFS IS NOT
CONSISTENT...SO WILL JUST GO DRY SATURDAY FOR NOW.

A COOL START TO THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60 ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD SURGE WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S MANY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
EXPECTED THROUGH 201200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JAS

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