Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 280624

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
224 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The LONG TERM section has been updated below.


Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High pressure will strengthen over the area, resulting in dry
conditions into the weekend. However, a frontal boundary will
trigger some scattered rain showers across the northern counties
on Saturday night and Sunday. Southerly flow on back side of the
high pressure will result in above normal temperatures for the
weekend and most of the week. After dry conditions early next
week, rain chances will return with a cold front on Wednesday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Held clouds around longer tonight. Although, the stratus was
breaking up over our southwestern and west central counties, plenty
of thick ac and cirrus was streaming in fast northwest flow aloft
ahead of the central states ridge. With delayed and not full
clearing, held temperatures up to overnight lows in the lower to mid
40s per blend of near term models.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure currently continues to track farther east into New
England while high pressure pushes into Illinois. Time cross
sections show low level moisture through this evening, but drier
air is expected to filter into the area overnight. As a result,
partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail tonight. And, decent
radiational cooling late tonight should give temperatures enough
time to dip into the upper 30s/low 40s.


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Sunday/...

Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The main focus of the short term period will be the above normal
temperatures and rain chances on Saturday night/Sunday across the
northern counties.

Southerly flow on the back side of high pressure will result in
above normal temperatures through the duration of the short term
period. Highs will climb into the upper 70s/low 80s by Saturday
and remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s for Sunday. Meanwhile,
overnight lows will generally be in the 50s, which was captured
best with a model blend.

The majority of the period will be dry. However, a surface frontal
system will be responsible for rain showers on Saturday night and
Sunday across the northern portions of the forecast area.


.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Upper ridging will keep central Indiana warm and most of the area
dry until mid week, when an upper trough pushes into the area from
the northwest. Models still differ a bit on timing, but the
uncertainty that far out leads to sticking with the model blend.

Temperatures will remain well above normal into mid week, then cool
some (but still above average) for Thursday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 280600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 116 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Patches of MVFR ceilings continues to hang around KIND/KLAF, so
included a mention of these for the first couple of hours.
Will also see some MVFR fog develop at the sites that could last
through daybreak. Not high confidence in how low it will get or how
long it will last though with high clouds streaming in to the area.

Winds will be light to calm for the rest of the night but then
increase to 5-8 kts out of the southwest by late morning. Could see
some LLWS Friday night.




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