Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191642
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1242 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Strong high pressure in place across the Ohio Valley will keep
warm and humid air in place across Indiana the next several days.

A few upper level disturbances are expected to push toward Indiana
each day through Friday. This in combination with the very warm
and humid air mass in place may result in some isolated
thunderstorms each day. Otherwise hot and humid weather through
Friday will continue to expected which will be some of the warmest
weather of the summer so far.

Cooler temperatures will arrive by early next week as well as the
heat is shoved off to the south and west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 1238 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Updated the POPs to reflect current radar. Still expecting current
precipitation to slowly diminish in coverage as it tracks SE. Late
afternoon heating could help develop isolated storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Models keep generally the same pattern across the area through
Friday Night. Strong High pressure appears to remain in place
aloft over the Central Plains. This allows several ridge riding
short waves to push across the northern plains and stream toward
Indiana and the Great Lakes. The GFS and NAM suggest the first
wave arriving late tonight...reaching NW Indiana near 12Z
Thursday. Model precipitation fields suggest MCS type
precipitation...but suggest rapid decay upon arrival in Indiana
near 12Z. Confidence is low for this given the favorable warm and
moist air mass in place. Thus will continue to keep some pops in
the forecast tonight. Will continue to keep the low at or above
the forecast builder blend given the warm air advection.

The GFS suggests yet another short wave pushing through by Friday
evening while the NAM show a subtle weak wave passing Friday
morning and again on Friday Night. Confidence in these wave is low
given their weak nature. However forecast soundings continue to
suggest a favorable column for daily convection with plenty of
CAPE available on Thursday and Friday. Convective temperatures on
Thursday and friday appear a bit more marginal...in the middle
90s. Thus given this will still need to include some low chc pops
each day until better confidence is in place. at this
point...should rain occur...best chances should be across the
northern parts of the state which will be closer to the quicker
flow aloft. Again will trend highs at or above the forecast
builder blend given the ongoing warm air advection and little
change in the air mass.

No heat advisories or watches at this point as confidence that
criteria will be met is low...particularly with uncertainty due to
possible thunderstorms. May consider an SPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

An upper trough will develop and move into the area through Monday.
Upper disturbances moving through the flow along with a surface cold
front will provide forcing for rain chances for much of the area
Saturday into Monday. Do not believe that it will rain for large
portions of any day, but uncertainties in timing of the forcing
result in more generalized PoPs each period.

High pressure then will build in Monday night and Tuesday, providing
dry conditions those days.

Saturday will be the warmest day with hot and humid conditions, then
temperatures will cool to near or below normal readings by Monday
and Tuesday as the airmass changes with the passage of the cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION /Update to KIND TAF/...

Issued at 1029 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Remnant clouds and showers from daybreak Illinois storms have
spread across KIND area. Shower threat from these remnants appear
minimal for KIND. As afternoon heating wears on, a very low risk
for isolated storms developing after 3pm.

Winds have become WSW but will remain under 10 knots.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...KH
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Tucek


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