Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281825
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper ridge of high pressure will keep warmer than normal
temperatures over the area for the next few days. Small chances
for thunderstorms will continue off and on until Wednesday night
when surface high pressure builds in behind a cold front that will
bring cooler and drier air with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Patchy fog will occur across the area through an hour or so after
daybreak with a decent temperature inversion and dew point
depressions of 0 to 2 degrees. Shortly after daybreak sunshine
should mix out any fog. Then focus turns to chances for
thunderstorms.

With upper ridging over the area and no forcing mechanism, looks
like the only thunderstorms today would be those diurnally
generated with the hot humid air mass. Best chances will be this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances. Not much available for
forcing through the period under increasing influence of the upper
ridge. Diurnal influence will wane tonight so kept a slight chance
going initially but dropped to dry late tonight. Again went with
low chances on Monday, with a dry pop in the northeast as surface high
pressure builds from the north. Expect dry weather Monday night
and for most of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night under the
subsidence of the surface high. Could see slight chance in the
west Tuesday and late Tuesday night where subsidence will be the
weakest. Temperatures should continue to run warmer than normal
with the upper ridge producing mostly sunny to partly cloudy
conditions and the front stalled north of the area keeping humid
conditions in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...

Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Big change in store for the long term as models and ensembles in
good agreement that strong high pressure in the wake of a cold front
will bring dry...cooler and much drier air to the area. Regional
blend handles this well. So, stuck with afternoon highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s through Saturday and lower to mid 80s Sunday.
Overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s look good as well.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 281800z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Confidence is good in 3 to 3.5K feet diurnal ceilings through 00z.
With such a soupy airmass and a pair of weak upper waves, should
also see isolated to scattered thunderstorms. So, went with VCTS.
Then, good confidence in VFR conditions this evening and also in a
few hours of MVFR and IFR fog at the smaller airports 08z-12z as
airmass will remain unchanged. Should see more diurnal MVFR or VFR
cu after 16z Monday. Thunderstorm coverage expected to be too low to
put in the TAFs.

Winds will be 6 knots or less through the period, except higher in
thunderstorms.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK


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