Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 262329
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN OLD FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN CHANCES
BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY MAXIMUM ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AXIS THANKS
IN PART TO AN OLD FRONT IN THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

FEEL THAT WHEN THE UPPER FORCING THAT ORIGINALLY CREATED THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS REACHES THE INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
AREA...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE TO HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER ENERGY PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER THE OLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS ALL NIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

OLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD IN AT THE SAME TIME. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST COOL ENOUGH THAT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...BUT DRY FAR
EAST /FARTHEST FROM THE OLD FRONT/.

UPPER HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MID LEVELS WARM.
THIS PLUS LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD STOP MOST
CONVECTION. DECIDED TO GO DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER
AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT THE ODDS
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. UPPER HEIGHTS FALL WEDNESDAY
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND SO
WENT HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS.

GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS FOR TEMPERATURES. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR TO OVER 100 TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OFFICIALLY TAKES CONTROL OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA BACK TO DRIER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AFTER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLY THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES STILL DEPICT A STRONGER
WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE THUS INCLUDED A CHANCE OF STORMS THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z-16Z.

RADAR SHOWS ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
AREA. AS HEATING IS LOST...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

DUE TO THE NEW MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AND VERY
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLYAT
THE LAF AREA WHERE MORE RAIN WAS RECEIVED.

AFTER FOG BURNS OFF AFT 14Z-16Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATE FAVORABLE...STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THUS WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP



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