Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 041440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER
TO CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL THEN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER QUICK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS ON MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN ABUNDANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRESENT NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-70. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S AS OF 1430Z.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO MAINTAIN FLURRIES FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A DEPARTING VORT LOBE
APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE FLURRIES. KIND RADAR
SUGGESTING SNOW IS FALLING A BIT HEAVIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN INDY
SUBURBS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE I-69 CORRIDOR FROM
FISHERS TO ANDERSON AND MUNCIE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TRACE AMOUNTS...THE LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN JUST
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN INDY SUBURBS.

EXPECT ANY FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO END BY MIDDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS ALREADY TO THE INDIANA-
ILLINOIS BORDER THIS MORNING...AND WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S CONTINUE TO LOOK
REACHABLE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN POP
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLEND.

NAM AND GFS PUSH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK ANY GULF
MOISTURE...AND LEAD TOWARD MAINLY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS
SEEN ON THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. GIVEN THE MINIMAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A FEW PASSING CI WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...THE
COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE DRIFTED EAST BY TONIGHT AND
MINIMAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE
BARELY TO -7C BY 00Z SAT. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS/METMOS
BLEND. WILL JUST USE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARRIVING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE. LOWER LEVELS
DOES INDICATE A DECENT COLD FRONT/CLIPPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUS THE MAVMOS POPS FOR LOW CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING...BUT WARM
UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAN ANY PRECIP COULD BE LIQUID. THUS
WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW. WILL TREND TEMPS ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN
MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN ALOFT. WITH EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT AS TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT HALF OF THE MEMBERS
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE OTHER
HALF DIGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF CHANCE POPS FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES LOWER
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR A DRY FORECAST BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 041500Z-041800Z TIME FRAME.

SURFACE WINDS 260-290 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS


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