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000
FXUS63 KIND 212246
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
645 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Unseasonably hot and dry weather will continue through next
Wednesday as upper level ridging continues across the state.  A cold
front on Wednesday will bring a chance for rain followed by cooler
and more seasonable weather going into the weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The big question for the night will be the extent and severity of
fog.  The combination of clear skies, high pressure, and weak winds
should lead to another morning of patchy fog similar to Wednesday
and today.  Fog will likely begin developing by 8Z and burn off
shortly after sunrise with the best chances across eastern and
southern Indiana.  Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.



&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Unseasonably hot weather will continue through the period with highs
in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Went a degree or two above model initialization based on recent low
bias in high temps.  There is high confidence for dry weather
through the period with strong upper level ridging in place.


&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

An upper ridge will continue its influence across the area through
the first half of the long term, then an upper trough will build
into the area.

The result will be the continuation of above normal (or even well
above normal) temperatures through Wednesday, then readings will
cool to near or below normal.

A cold front will bring the cold air to the area mid week next week,
but models differ a bit on timing. Thus confidence is lower on PoPs
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 220000Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 645 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Brief restrictions possible in fog near daybreak Friday...
otherwise VFR conditions expected.

Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will
maintain dry conditions through the forecast period with limited
cloud cover. Only expect a few high thin clouds overnight and a
few diurnal CU from mid morning Saturday on.

Could be a brief period of MVFR fog at the outlying TAF`s near
sunrise. Otherwise...no visibility restrictions expected.
Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...White/Ryan
NEAR TERM...White/Ryan
SHORT TERM...White/Ryan
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JH