Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 242031
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
431 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation sections updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

For the next several days Indiana will be in a somewhat unusual
weather pattern. Very large low pressure systems should cover the
state most of the time, causing unsettled weather. Expect brief
appearances of high pressure Friday and again the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

All models track a low across the state, indicating there will be
rain with embedded thunderstorms.

Temperature forecasts are all close, and reflect little change
overnight due to precipitation.

Given all the rain, the situation will need to be monitored for a
flood watch or flash flood watch. Currently no watch seems needed
since we have seen a lot of drying over the past several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Saturday)...

Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

The forecast problem is POPs. Confidence in them is low.

The models agree on Indiana being in a pattern where small, weak,
features determine rain chances. These are difficult to forecast
and different models handle them different ways. Given the
uncertainty, it`s best to use consensus and have slight chance or
chance of rain most of the time. A precise forecast for the
weekend may have to wait until Friday morning.

Skies should be mostly cloudy thanks to the previously mentioned
small systems.

Confidence in the temperature forecast is moderate. Different models
have similar results. However just a few hours of clear sky versus a
storm would make a big difference. A consensus will be used, with
potential errors 2-4 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...

Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Saturday night a low pressure system will be moving through the
area. Models are showing quite a bit of variability on the
placement of the surface low and axis of qpf, but generally looks
like the best forcing will be across the southern half of the area
and confined highest pops there. Sunday looks like the cold front
will move through during the morning and should move most pops
out with its passage. Could see a brief shower in the wake of the
front so didn`t completely eliminate pops for the afternoon but
think much of the western half of the area should be dry for the
afternoon hours, and this should last through Sunday night. Monday
the next wave approaches and brings chances for showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, and this system stalls and keeps pops in
the forecast through Tuesday.

After mid to upper 70s on Sunday, high temperatures will
generally run in the low to mid 70s through the period under the
influence of an upper low slowly traversing southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 242100 IND Taf Update/...

VFR CIGS with occasional MVFR visibilities are expected to
continue.

Surface low over Northern Kentucky continues to provide cyclonic
flow across Central Indiana. Radar shows shield of rain across
the TAF sites...with pockets of light rain passing from time to
time. Thus have updated to reflect the periodicity of the brief
breaks which may result in brief VFR Cigs and visibilities.

Otherwise...ongoing taf in good shape.

Previous Discussion Below

(Discussion for 241800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Expect poor flying weather much of the time.

For the afternoon, visibilities will be mostly MVFR in rain while
ceilings are largely VFR, but occasionally MVFR. Widespread IFR
and areas of LIFR are going to form overnight as low pressure
crosses Indiana, rain continues, and fog develops. There should be
slow recovery to VFR during the day Thursday.

Thunderstorms could be embedded in larger areas of rain today and
tonight.

The wind should stay mostly northwest at 5-15 knots.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JK/JP



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