Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM...WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DEGREE OF LIFT AND PROGGED INSTABILITY NOT TOO
EXCESSIVE...BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE
THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOK OK FOR THE
MOST PART...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
TONIGHT TO COVER THE POP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

OTHERWISE...MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GET SHEARED OUT DURING
THE LATER PERIODS...LEAVING AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS VORT LOBE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL
FOCUS...DOUBT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY WIDESPREAD. AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH
TIME...THINK THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN. FOR NOW...WILL PUT A SMALL
CHANCE POP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE VORTICITY AXIS. WILL HOLD ONTO THE DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIODS.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE
LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS
PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM.   THE COMBINATION OF A HUMID AIRMASS
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO MAY PRODUCE A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS FRIDAY.  ALL MODELS INDICATE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.   IN MOST CASES ONLY WENT MOSTLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OR LESS IN THE LONG TERM.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FROM +18 TO 20 CELSIUS.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MINOR TWEAKD MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL OR LOWER BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2F AND LIGHT WINDS MAY COMBINE TO ALLOW FOG
FORMATION. HIGH CLOUD STREAMING WITHING THE TROPICAL PLUME ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT CLEARING AND DENSE FOG.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THUS
SOME SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS...AND HAVE USED VCTS AFT 17Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH


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