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000
FXUS63 KIND 030300
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND A FEW SYSTEMS COULD BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS WELL
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING /MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF/ WHICH IS MATCHING UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
STILL EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
LIFT WEAKENS. TEMPS DROPPED RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES OVER THOSE AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD BECOME STEADY THOUGH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL PUT PROJECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA...AND LOW 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS ADVANCE NORTH TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT...STRONGEST NORTH OF THE FRONT...COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS
LIFT WEAKENS. HOWEVER LATE TONIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG.
THUS HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT.

WITH THE INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD. WENT CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE SIMILAR MAV/MET MOS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...THEN ON PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH COLD FRONT TIMING MID WEEK. GFS
STILL SEEMS LIKE A FAST OUTLIER SO THREW IT OUT. RELIED MORE ON A
BLEND OF ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE EARLY
ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO ADDED IT UNTIL MID
MORNING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT
MUCH FOCUS FOR FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES DURING THE
DAY BUT DECIDED CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IT.

STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING EVEN WITH SPOTTY MOISTURE TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND FRONT ITSELF WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE STATE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ONLY CHANCE
POPS AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING. ON THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE
A LULL SO ONLY WENT LOW POPS DURING THE MORNING. AS A WAVE RIDES
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASE INTO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORY...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE WAVE.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIR SHOULD BE
GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET IN THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH CLOUDS AROUND DECIDED TO
STICK WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS ON TUESDAY. MOS LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS.

MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES ON WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST AREA BEING IN
WARM SECTOR. IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP...NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S LOOK POSSIBLE. HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
THAT HAPPENING SO STUCK WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. STUCK WITH A
BLEND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONCERNING WINTER WEATHER DURING
PARTS OF THE LONG TERM. ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  WENT WITH A BLEND OF GEMNH...GFS AND EURO SURFACE AND
1000-700 MB THICKNESS WHICH INDICATED A CHANGE OVER FROM A RAIN AND
SLEET MIX TO ALL SNOW MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR NOW MAINLY
FOR FRIDAY EVENING.

DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER WILL THEN BE THE RULE SATURDAY.  MODELS
BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THEN 12Z EURO
HAS TRENDED WARMER WITH HIGHER 1000-700 MB THICKNESS AND WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN DRY
AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY.

DUE TO SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW COLD IT WILL BE LEANED
TOWARDS A CONSALL ALLBLEND MIX ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/0300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 925 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

TOOK THE RAIN OUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BUT LEFT MVFR IN AS THE
VISIBILITY IS 5SM AND SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPROVING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AND DEW POINTS STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES. THE SOLID AREA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LAST UNTIL 01Z OR SO WITH MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT PER RAPID RERESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS. MODELS
WHERE SHOWING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE RAIN...WILL GO PESSIMISTIC WITH MVFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CEILINGS LIKELY TO HOVER
AROUND THE MVFR AND VFR BORDER. LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST
SOUTH OF A HUF TO BMG LINE AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST TO NORTH OF LAF
BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
THEN SOUTH WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL BE LIGHT AT ANY RATE TONIGHT AND
AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

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