Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 252324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
724 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Summer has arrived and will be in full force across central
Indiana over the seven day forecast period. Highs in the 80s, lows
in the 60s, and ever present shower and thunderstorm chances
characterize the entire forecast period as a warm and humid
airmass remains in place with multiple subtle, weak, and difficult
to time upper level disturbances providing the focus for the
thunderstorm threat.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Guidance depicts an upper level wave moving into the area late
this afternoon into the overnight. This would potentially be the
focus for shower and thunderstorm activity but activity over
western Kentucky and another complex over northeastern Arkansas
this afternoon appear to be the dominant reflections of this wave.
Will remove guidance likelies and carry a 50 pop overnight, but
even this may be too high unless more robust development can occur
over the next few hours in Illinois, which does not appear to be
occurring particularly quickly at this time.

Marginal risk was expanded into the area earlier this afternoon,
and while this isn`t unreasonable, any severe risk would be
extremely limited, in the form of isolated microbursts as deep
layer shear is minimal at best.

Consensus temperatures overnight appear reasonable.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Multiple weak and poorly resolved waves will move through the area
over the next few days, and in the absence of more significant
synoptic support, expect that thunderstorm threat will be highly
diurnal in nature and will reflect this to the degree reasonable
in grids. Cannot justify more than chance pops in any one period
as a result of the significant uncertainty and low forecast

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout. Bumped up
maxes a bit per low level thicknesses and left mins alone. Little
change in airmass over the next few days will result in only minor
day to day variability in temperatures.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

ECMWF really has no significant changes to the ongoing pattern
during the extended period. Warm and moist southerly flow
continues to stream into the Ohio Valley. Strong ridging looks to
remain across the east coast...keeping any passing short waves
well to the north of Indiana. Given the warm and moist air mass in
place...diurnal thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as superblend
continues to carry pops each day. Again, no washout days are
expected...but daily showers and storms will be possible. Given
the expected warm and moist southerly flow...the trend of slightly
above normal temperatures given by superblend seems reasonable.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 260000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 716 PM EDT Wed May 25 2016

Mainly VFR through the period. Convection from upper wave has
split around central Indiana and no longer think TSRA should be a
probable threat at the sites so dropping any VCTS. High dew points
suggest some fog potential but winds overnight will not drop off
completely so will keep MVFR for a few hours around daybreak
similar to previous issuance. Models are showing some potential
for low (MVFR) cloud development in the morning but not confident
of this given upstream obs so will just bring in a scattered lower
deck for now. Possible scattered thunderstorms around Thursday
afternoon given the amount of instability but this will be
fighting a cap and a bit of upper ridging so will also leave out
any mention at this point.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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