Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 142041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
437 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER TROUGH BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET...BUT WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE OR NOT IS MUCH
SHAKIER. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FACTORS POINT TOWARD
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME GOOD PRECIP RATES...OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS POINT TOWARD SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARM
GROUND AND PAVEMENT WILL WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ACCUMULATION OCCURRING.

SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ADEQUATE IF NOT SPECTACULAR...BUT VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS /RAIN OR SNOW/ SHOULD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REDEVELOP. BRIEF
HIGH PRECIP RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WHICH UNDER PAVEMENT ARE RANGING FROM
55 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS...AND LATEST HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BEGINNING TO HINT THAT MAJORITY OF SNOW COULD
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE HERE.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO ARGUES AGAINST ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY THREE DATES
FROM THIS POINT OR LATER OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 30-40
YEARS.

IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS AT
MOST...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A STRETCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE/ENHANCED PRECIP RATES MAY MAKE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SNOW SIDE NW
INITIALLY...WITH TRANSITION IN THE IND METRO AROUND 03-04Z AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST MORE LIKE 04-06Z. ANYTHING FALLING AFTER 06Z
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS TRACKED WELL WITH WETBULB TEMPS AND WERE USED
WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY
SIGNFICANT ISSUE BEING ONE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN ACCORDING TO OFFICE COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL AND STATE
AGRICULTURAL OFFICIALS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. DO NOT
WANT TO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING QUITE YET TO AVOID MUDDYING THE
WATERS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MINOR THEY MAY BE. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE
LIKELY UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL START VERY COLD...NEAR
RECORD LOW MAX NUMBERS TUESDAY...BUT WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS
TO THE TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS A WAVE ALOFT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
REVERTING TO DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID APRIL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINTS CONTINUE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP BEYOND THE 7 DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 142100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WON/T PROBABLY ARRIVE TIL AROUND
SUNSET...SO STEADIER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

WILL LOWER THE WIND FORECAST SOME FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP MORE AFTER DARK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 010 FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE CEILINGS MAY DIP 008-009
AGL...ESPECIALLY NEAR PRECIPITATION AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH KBMG. RENEWED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
IMPACTING BOTH KBMG AND KIND. FURTHER WEST...VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AIR SETS IN. SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AND WILL RACE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...
FIRST AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN AS LIGHT SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO REASSERT THEMSELVES
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
QUICKLY EXPANDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO 3000-3500FT DURING THE MORNING...BUT
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL KEEP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CU THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JAS

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