Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 152029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
428 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017


The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

In the wake of a departing cold front, high pressure will begin to
push into the area tonight, and will dominate the area for the
next week. This will lead to a prolonged stretch of dry weather,
with initially much cooler post frontal temperatures gradually
warming back into the 70s as the week wears on.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High pressure will work into the area tonight, although the upper
level trough will still be moving through the region, which should
keep cloud cover up overnight.

Some guidance suggests a lake enhanced plume of precipitation
making it into the northeastern forecast area tonight, but I
suspect that if anything it might result in a little drizzle. Do
not expect measurable precipitation.

Consensus temperatures seemed in the ballpark per upstream numbers
from this morning, and were only minorly tweaked.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Dry weather will be the rule through the short term and beyond as
high pressure dominates the area. Some cloud cover will likely
remain, particularly over eastern/northeastern portions of the
area through early Monday morning, but skies will quickly become
mostly sunny Monday and remain clear or mostly clear through the
remainder of the short term.

Minimum temperatures look too warm to support frost Monday
night/Tuesday morning at this time, but will have to monitor this,
as if winds go calm, dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s would make
this at least a minor threat.

Consensus temperatures required only minor tweaks and generally
appeared reasonable per low level thermal progs. Expect Monday to
be quite cool compared to recent days with highs struggling into
the upper 50s to low 60s, but temperatures will gradually warm
each day.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Dry Fall weather will be expected during this period.

ECMWF suggests strong ridging aloft during this period while high
pressure at the surface continues to provide anticyclonic
southerly flow. Thus dry and warm fall weather will be expected
through Sunday morning. Next best chance for rain will be on
Sunday night as the ridge and surface high finally exit to the
east and allow a cold front and associated trough to push east to
the ohio valley. For now forecast builder holds that precip off
until after 00Z Monday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 152100Z IND Taf Update/...
Issued at 428 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

No changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

MVFR Cigs are expected for the first part of the forecast with
improvement to VFR in the second half of the forecast.

Cold front and associated precip now exiting the forecast
area...however GOES16 shows extensive MVFR Cigs in the wake of the
front extending west to Illinois and NW to Wisconsin. Forecast
soundings keep plentiful lower level moisture in place through
the night...suggesting lingering MVFR or VFR Cigs. aviation grids showing an earlier clear out.
Confidence is low for that considering observations and ongoing
cold air advection. Better chances for clearing appear to be after
15Z Monday as models suggest lower level moisture scouring out at
that point.





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