Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 020958
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
558 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO PARTS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO CLEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE CLEARING LINE HAD SLOWED THOUGH...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE CLEARING
MIGHT BE A STRUGGLE FOR A WHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT/S HARD
TO ARGUE WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT.

THUS WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY OR BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH TODAY.

GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH
ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKING IN AND THE
UPPER LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WENT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS
NEAR MOS MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SOUTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. AS NORTHEAST FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE EASTERLY /AND EVEN SOUTHEAST AT SOME
LEVELS/...MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THUS ADDED MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
USUALLY OVERDO RETURN OF SURFACE MOISTURE SO WILL NOT GO AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS HIGH OF POPS AS THEY WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
IT RIDES OVER AN UPPER RIDGE...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND BEST
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. THUS CONTINUED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
INDIANA ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE TO
THE NORTH AND A SECOND TO THE SOUTH. ALOFT...RIDING LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES...LEADING TO A W-NW FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS INDIANA. GFS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL
PASS ALOFT DURING THUS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE FEATURES REMAIN LOW. ALLBLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW
POPS WITH A HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS IN PLACE...HAVE NOT TRENDED
FAR FROM THAT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAINS NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 553 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

11U-3.9U IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CLOUDS OVER BMG AND NEAR HUF THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
SUN-UP AS MIXING AND HEATING RESUMES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY NE FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. THUS WE WILL LOOK ONLY FOR SOME HIGH CI PASSING IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.