Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1244 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

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