Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 040212
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AFTER THAT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

PULLED POPS AS IT APPEARS THE LAST OF THE STORMS EXITED THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MOS
BLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TO THE SOUTH JUST FAR ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY LATER TUESDAY
EVENING...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY DURING THE
DAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY THE FORCING WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO
GENERATE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN...WITH THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN
THIS PERIOD DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS AT ONE POINT
DURING THIS 24 HOUR TIME FRAME. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
EXCESS OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES COULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
RAIN. FOR NOW HAVE UP TO AN INCH IN THE FORECAST BUT RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON WED NIGHT INTO THU TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

REGIONAL INITIALIZATION LOOKS GOOD AND FOLLOWS THE MODELS WELL.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL
CONTINUE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE IN AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES EASTWARD OVER TEXAS AND
EXPANDS...CAUSING RIDGING TO EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...BUT WILL
REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE MOVE OUT OF
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO FOG.
SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW NO FOG POTENTIAL. MET GUIDANCE HAS MVFR AT
KBMG AND KHUF FOR A COUPLE HOURS...MAV HAS NONE. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN 5-7 DEGREES OR MORE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND COULD ADVECT INTO THE KLAF AREA. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THINK THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
MVFR FOG THERE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH FOG MENTION THERE. WILL LEAVE
FOG OUT AT KLAF AND KIND. SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MMB/PUMA
AVIATION...CP


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