Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 011436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
936 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 220 AM EST Wed Mar 01 2017

Severe thunderstorm threat will remain through noon today. Then, a
strong cold front will move through the area and bring colder
temperatures to the area. Northern locales could see a brief mix of
rain to snow this evening, before an upper system to the eastern
Great Lakes. After that, a clipper systems could bring rain or snow
showers to all or parts of the area Thursday afternoon and night and
again Friday night. Meanwhile, warmer and dry weather is expected
the rest of the weekend with the next chance of showers early next
week as another low pressure system approaches from the west.


.NEAR TERM (Today and tonight)...

Issued at 937 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

The system that caused active weather earlier is now leaving. A
number of changes for today, based on observations and the Rapid
Refresh, were made to reflect this.

The forecast for overnight was unchanged. A disturbance aloft may
cause showers of rain or snow. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s
per conshort look good.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday night/...
Issued at 220 AM EST Wed Mar 01 2017

Main focus for the short term will be on timing of a pair of Alberta
clippers that are headed our way. Deterministic models in good
agreement that the first of these will move across Thursday night
and bring precipitation chances to northern parts of the forecast
area Thursday afternoon and the rest of the forecast area by
Thursday evening. After another brief break, another clipper will
bring precipitation chances in Friday night. The first one should
start off as rain and mix with or change to snow Thursday night from
north to south. The second, looks like snow for entire event. Either
way, looks like either way any accumulation would be minor.

Superblend below normal temperatures look good based on low level
thermals and expected. Friday looks to be the coldest day with highs
only in the mid 30s to lower 40s.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

The above normal temperatures will return on Saturday and persist
for the duration of the extended period. Highs will climb back
into the 60s with lows generally in the 40s. Meanwhile, dry
conditions will prevail on Saturday and Sunday, but latest
Superblend initialization has increasing pops by Sunday night as
the next system enters the Upper Midwest. Rain chances will only
increase further on Monday as moisture is drawn in ahead of the
aforementioned system. As of now, there is no mention of thunder
in the forecast, but this will continue to be monitored. Rain will
taper off from west to east on Monday night with most of the
forecast area dry by Tuesday morning.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 011200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 541 AM EST Wed Mar 01 2017

The squall line will be southeast of BMG at issuance time. Looking
at radar and lightning data trends, will keep thunder in through 14z
at IND and HUF. Around the same time, the cold front should be close
by. Flying conditions will tend to go from MVFR to VFR after 21z.
Could still be some showers around, possibly even mixing with snow
after 03z at LAF. However, coverage too low to mention.

Winds will become west behind the front with sustained winds to near
20 knots and gusts to near 30 knots through 02z or so.




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