Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301633
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1233 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A broad area of low pressure remains in place across the area.
This will again lead to scattered thunderstorm development across
the region today. High pressure will begin to nudge into the area
late tonight into Sunday, which will lower thunderstorm chances a
bit.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Patchy fog and low stratus continue to impact northern portions of
the forecast area as of mid morning with mainly sunny skies
elsewhere. 1330Z temps ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Similar convective setup to Thursday and Friday unfolding for
today with the surface low still residing in the region located
over northwest Ohio. There are a few changes though that would
suggest overall convective coverage will be lower this afternoon
than the last few days.

Water vapor imagery indicating some subsidence has advected into
the area south of the stratus over central/southern Indiana and
LAPS sounding and precip water values support this as well. Upper
wave remains over the region but this will likely weaken through
the course of the day with more substantial forcing aloft focused
to our northeast. Low level lapse rates and instability look
weaker for the afternoon as well. With that being said...presence
of leftover boundaries from Friday are likely to spark scattered
storms this afternoon as convective temps are reached. Most
coverage should be focused closer to the departing surface low and
energy aloft over northeast half of the forecast area and will
employ highest pops there.

Heavy rain...localized flooding and cloud-to-ground lightning
remain the primary threats this afternoon and evening as stagnant
flow over the area supports sluggish and erratic moving
convection influenced by outflows. Highs in the low to mid 80s
again look reasonable for highs.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Models depict weak high pressure nosing into the area late tonight
through the remainder of the weekend, which will significantly
lower but perhaps not completely eliminate thunderstorm chances
from central Indiana. Will carry slight chances across the east
Sunday and across the southwest Monday and west Monday night per
model consensus.

Consensus temperatures again appeared a bit too cool on maxes per
low level thermal progs. Min temps were reasonable and required
only minor adjustments.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through next Friday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Operational models and ensembles in decent agreement that upper
waves will drop southeast over the area Tuesday into Wednesday as a
warm front gradually lifts northeast over the Wabash Valley and the
rest of central Indiana late Wednesday and Wednesday night. These
features will interact with a warm and unstable airmass and allow
for scattered thunderstorms with the best chances Tuesday night.
After that, the upper dome of high pressure over the middle of the
nation will build northeast over the Ohio Valley and lower Great
Lakes and result in warmer temperatures and only small thunderstorm
chances Wednesday night through Thursday night. Finally, an upper
Canadian low will force a cold front to drop southeast over the area
early next weekend. This will bring another decent shot of
thunderstorms in starting Friday. Regional blend looks to have a
good handle on temperature trends as well as pops. Could see 90
degrees again in the south by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 301800Z TAFS/...

Issued at 1232 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Potential for lightning strikes in the vicinity of the terminals
appears lower today than it has been recently with the main
instability axis located close to the Ohio River and somewhat
drier and more stable air locally.

Inversion around the 850mb level on this mornings upper air
suggests diurnal cloud will probably spread out resulting in
areas of ceilings 030-050 for the balance of the afternoon. These
ceilings should scatter out towards/after sunset.

Surface winds 260-290 degrees at 7-10 kts this afternoon will
become light after dark.

Pattern remains favorable of IFR/LIFR conditions due to low clouds
and fog after 310600Z but may be delayed or not as widespread
due to slightly drier air mass.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS



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