Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.  HOWEVER AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUR WAY.  THE FIRST ONE WILL BE
TOMORROW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.
ANOTHER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
FLATTEN OUT SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. CURRENT
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...AND ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 60S
OVERNIGHT.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MIDDLE 60S FAR SOUTH.  WENT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS TRACK AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH.  WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.  SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL STUCK CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
DRIER ACROSS OUR NORTH BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

UNDERCUT MOS HIGHS A LITTLE NORTHERN HALF TUESDAY AND SOUTHERN HALF
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.  OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S NEAR VINCENNES.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

COOL AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A
TROUGHY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE NW
FLOW AND ACROSS INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO REAL SOAKING RAINS
DUE TO A LACK OF GULF MOISTURE...HOWEVER LIGHT RAINS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EACH DAY AS THESE FORCING FEATURES ALOFT PASS. THUS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS EACH DAY.

GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR...CONTINUE TO TREND TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI STORMS
COULD HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 09Z...SO ADDED A
TEMPO THUNDERSTORM GROUP TO HANDLE THAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING IN CYCLONIC FLOW. THAT ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A THUNDER THREAT...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. SO...UNLESS A STORM IS NEAR
ONE OF THE TAF SITES NEAR ISSUANCE TIME AND OR LIGHTNING STRIKES
PICK UP...WILL JUST GO WITH TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z. ACTIVITY
SHOULD END OR BECOME ISOLATED AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS...MOS AND SREF SUGGEST VFR CEILINGS SHOULD DETERIORATE
TO MVFR AND QUITE POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 06Z. THEN...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE JUST NORTHWEST OF LAF AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK

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