Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 162022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
322 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.


Issued at 322 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

An area of low pressure and weak cold front could bring some rain
and snow to the area Saturday. A slow moving front will bring rain
and perhaps some thunderstorms Sunday night into Wednesday. Some
heavy rain and flooding is possible during this time frame as well.
Above normal temperatures are expected through much of the period,
with well above normal readings early next week.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 322 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Early this afternoon, clouds continued to cover central Indiana.
Some slow clearing is occurring across northeast Illinois. Expect
this slow clearing trend to continue into the forecast area into the
evening hours. However, as is usual with these situations, there
remains some uncertainty on how fast the low clouds will actually
scatter out.

Overnight, clouds will increase once again as a couple of upper
systems approach the area.

The model blend looks reasonable for low temperatures given the
expected cloud cover.


.SHORT TERM.../Saturday through Monday/
Issued at 322 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The area will be impacted by two upper systems on Saturday, one in
the northern stream and the other from the southern stream. The
southern stream one will move in first, and it will have the most
moisture available with it. The southern forecast area will be in
the right entrance region of an upper jet as well.

Will have PoPs starting in the south early on Saturday, peaking in
the likely category in the far south by afternoon.

The weaker northern stream one will move in during the afternoon, so
will keep the northern forecast area dry until then. Will go chance
category PoPs north during the afternoon.

Some evaporative cooling will lead to a mix of rain and snow south
early in the day, but am not expecting any snow accumulation. By the
time precipitation reaches elsewhere, the lowest levels of the
atmosphere should be warm enough for rain.

Will keep some low PoPs east during Saturday evening to account for
any lingering precipitation.

Dry conditions will then prevail for most of the area through Sunday
evening. An approaching frontal system, along with a low level jet,
will bring more rain chances to the area overnight Sunday night into
Monday. There could be enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm in the far west during this period.  The strong low
level flow will bring in well above normal temperatures for Monday.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Unseasonably warm and very wet weather will occur Monday night
through Tuesday night as low pressure tracks from the middle
Mississippi valley into the great lakes.  A cold front will push
south into our region Tuesday night.  Models are indicating record
high minimum temperatures Monday night.  In addition models are
indicating three inches or more of precipitation from Monday through
Wednesday.  Have added a slight chance of thunder Tuesday with an
unstable air mass and an approaching cold front.

Temperatures will cool slightly after the cold front moves through
and precipitation chances should end at least north and central late
Wednesday and early Thursday as high pressure builds into the great
lakes.  Models indicate a brief shot of precipitation may move our
way late Thursday as a weak upper disturbance moves across Tennessee
and the lower Ohio valley.   This will be followed by a stronger
upper disturbance Friday with a much better chance of rain by then.

Low level Thickness and temperatures favor rain through the period.
A brief wintry mix is not out of the question far north late
Thursday night...but confidence of this occurring is low.

Tweaked low temperatures a little warmer Tuesday night in the south
ahead of the cold front and slightly lower north and central
Wednesday behind the cold front.   Otherwise...stayed close to a MOS
blend of temperatures most other periods.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 16/18Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1205 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

MVFR Ceilings through mid afternoon...Then VFR at least through
midday Saturday.

A cold front across Tennessee and southeast Kentucky will drift to
the south as high pressure centered just north of Kansas City moves
east towards Indiana.  Lower clouds will scatter out by late
afternoon and only expect a few lower to middle clouds later tonight.
Mid clouds will increase over western and southern sections by
midday Saturday as low pressure moves from the lower Mississippi
valley towards Tennessee.

North winds of 10 to 15 knots will decrease to 5 to 10 knots
by evening and then light overnight.   South winds up to 8 knots
possible by midday Saturday.




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