Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
358 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

A strong low pressure system centered over western Ohio will move
on to the east.  Weak ridge of high pressure will move east across
Indiana late tonight and early Friday.  After a brief dry period
more active weather will return late Friday through Sunday as
low pressure system moves into the great lakes followed by a cold
front which will move our way by Sunday.

In the long term another weak cold front will move our way late
Monday night and early Tuesday and high pressure over the northern
plains will build southeast towards Indiana towards the middle of
next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Surface analysis indicated a strong low pressure system near the
Indiana Ohio border just east of Winchester.  Radar indicated
numerous showers were occurring over the northeast half of
central Indiana.  These will rotate south mainly across the eastern
half of our forecast area early this morning.  Will hold on to
likely POPS over eastern sections until mid morning.  All models
indicate showers will end from the west later today.

Western sections will only see low chance of showers this morning...
while the east will see good chance of showers better this morning
and diminishing chance of showers this afternoon.

Model soundings indicate western sections should become partly cloudy
this afternoon...while clouds hold in the east most of the day.
Highs will range from the lower to middle 60s east to lower 70s far

Partly cloudy and dry weather will occur tonight as a weak ridge of
high pressure moves our way with overnight lows in the lower to
middle 50s.


.SHORT TERM (Friday through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

A ridge of high pressure over Indiana early Friday will move
on to the east.  An area of low pressure over the central plains
will move towards northern Indiana.  Models also move an upper
disturbance our way late Friday bringing a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to most areas by late Friday.  Some models
such as the NAM and Canadian only bring this precipitation
to our far west by late Friday.

Friday night looks wet as the upper disturbance moves our way
and a surface low moves towards northern Indiana.  Went with
high chance POPS most areas...but I would not be surprised to
see likely POPS in later forecast.

Models indicate a lull in rain chances Saturday followed by
high POPS Saturday night as another upper disturbance and an
area of low pressure moves our way.  Will go with likely POPS
most areas Saturday night.  Some areas could see an inch of
rain as airmass will be quite moist.

Stayed close to a MOS blend on high temperatures from 75 to 80
Friday and upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday.   Lows will be 60 to
65 Friday night and middle 60s Saturday night.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

An active weather pattern will prevail throughout the extended
period. First, showers and thunderstorms will persist into Sunday
as the result of a surface frontal boundary. After a bit of a lull
in activity on Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms will
commence once again by Monday afternoon as waves of energy rotate
around a broad upper low situated over Ontario. This system and
its periodic waves will be the source of showers and thunderstorms
at times through mid-week.  Meanwhile, temperatures will start
out above normal on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s,
but they will trend closer to normal through the remainder of the
forecast period.  Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250900 KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions.
No other changes are needed at this time.  Previous aviation
discussion follows...

MVFR Conditions are expected to deteriorate to IFR at time
overnight. A return to MVFR is expected on Thursday morning.

Low pressure remains over Western Ohio...producing cyclonic flow
across Indiana and pin wheeling wrap around showers across central
Indiana. With the loss of daytime heating coverage of rain showers
has decreased and light showers have becomr more scattered. Thus
have trended toward VCSH withinb the tafs along with IFR CIGs
through much of the night.

The low is expected to linger across the area on
Thursday...keeping clouds and MVFR CIGS across the area trough
much of the morning hours. Time height and forecast soundings
continue to suggest this plenty of lower level moisture.

Some improvement to VFR appears possible by late afternoon
Thursday as the surface low finally is suggested to drift to
toward Western New York.





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