Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 301357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
957 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A broad area of low pressure remains in place across the area.
This will again lead to scattered thunderstorm development across
the region today. High pressure will begin to nudge into the area
late tonight into Sunday, which will lower thunderstorm chances a


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Patchy fog and low stratus continue to impact northern portions of
the forecast area as of mid morning with mainly sunny skies
elsewhere. 1330Z temps ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Similar convective setup to Thursday and Friday unfolding for
today with the surface low still residing in the region located
over northwest Ohio. There are a few changes though that would
suggest overall convective coverage will be lower this afternoon
than the last few days.

Water vapor imagery indicating some subsidence has advected into
the area south of the stratus over central/southern Indiana and
LAPS sounding and precip water values support this as well. Upper
wave remains over the region but this will likely weaken through
the course of the day with more substantial forcing aloft focused
to our northeast. Low level lapse rates and instability look
weaker for the afternoon as well. With that being said...presence
of leftover boundaries from Friday are likely to spark scattered
storms this afternoon as convective temps are reached. Most
coverage should be focused closer to the departing surface low and
energy aloft over northeast half of the forecast area and will
employ highest pops there.

Heavy rain...localized flooding and cloud-to-ground lightning
remain the primary threats this afternoon and evening as stagnant
flow over the area supports sluggish and erratic moving
convection influenced by outflows. Highs in the low to mid 80s
again look reasonable for highs.

Zone and grid updates out.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Models depict weak high pressure nosing into the area late tonight
through the remainder of the weekend, which will significantly
lower but perhaps not completely eliminate thunderstorm chances
from central Indiana. Will carry slight chances across the east
Sunday and across the southwest Monday and west Monday night per
model consensus.

Consensus temperatures again appeared a bit too cool on maxes per
low level thermal progs. Min temps were reasonable and required
only minor adjustments.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through next Friday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Operational models and ensembles in decent agreement that upper
waves will drop southeast over the area Tuesday into Wednesday as a
warm front gradually lifts northeast over the Wabash Valley and the
rest of central Indiana late Wednesday and Wednesday night. These
features will interact with a warm and unstable airmass and allow
for scattered thunderstorms with the best chances Tuesday night.
After that, the upper dome of high pressure over the middle of the
nation will build northeast over the Ohio Valley and lower Great
Lakes and result in warmer temperatures and only small thunderstorm
chances Wednesday night through Thursday night. Finally, an upper
Canadian low will force a cold front to drop southeast over the area
early next weekend. This will bring another decent shot of
thunderstorms in starting Friday. Regional blend looks to have a
good handle on temperature trends as well as pops. Could see 90
degrees again in the south by Thursday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 30/1200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 603 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The SREF and no as much the GFS LAMP suggest the low clouds and fog
could continue for an hour or two after issuance time. Then,
moderate confidence that mostly VFR conditions will be featured the
rest of the day and evening save some brief poor flying conditions
in scattered diurnal thunderstorms. More fog and low stratus is a
good possibility overnight as model soundings show plenty of
lingering low level moisture.

Winds will become west 6 knots or less this morning and afternoon
and very light to calm once again tonight.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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