Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231925
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Dry weather will continue across central Indiana into early next
week, before a front brings a return of rain chances Tuesday night
and Wednesday. For the most part, temperatures will be near normal
to above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Radar echoes have diminished with the passage of the upper trough,
so pulled flurries.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 930 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Added flurries to areas north of Indianapolis per radar and reports.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Thankfully the models are in pretty decent agreement for the
forecast today.

Mid clouds will move across the area this morning as an upper trough
moves through, providing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Clouds will
decrease this afternoon as the system exits.

With warm advection today, temperatures will be warmer than
Wednesday`s. Went a little above the model blend given the warm
advection and sunshine this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/
Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

High pressure will build in tonight and Friday, continuing the dry
conditions.

Another cold front and upper trough will move in for Friday night.
The best forcing will remain north of the area closer to an upper
jet. Moisture is limited as well, so odds favor a dry forecast,
which is what the blend gives. Hopefully the dry forecast for Friday
night won`t be a turkey, as some GFS ensemble members do show some
light rain Friday night. Will have to keep an eye on it.

High pressure will then build in again and bring dry weather
Saturday and Saturday night.

The blend looks reasonable for temperatures given expected
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Low confidence forecast after Monday night as models and ensembles
continued to struggle finding a common solution, which gets more
common the further into the cold season. So, will not make any
chances with small pops starting late Tuesday and Tuesday night
associated with complex frontal systems and a pair of upper systems.
Low confidence in temperatures and timing and coverage of showers is
low and goes hand in hand  with the low confidence in synoptic
temporal and spacial features.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/1800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Good confidence in VFR conditions with only mid and high clouds.

Winds will be southwest less than 10 knots.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK



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