Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS
THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT COLD TEMPERATURES IN IT/S WAKE WILL CREATE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN COME MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER A COLD START ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY
THURSDAY AND COOL A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 956 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AS EXPECTED WITH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW GONE BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLIER SAW A LOT OF MELTING
INITIALLY AND THUS HAVE CUT AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS COOLED FASTER. THE MELTING OF SNOW AND
INITIAL START WITH RAIN...THEN TOPPED BY SNOW AND FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID AND LOW 20S IS CAUSING
ROADS AND OTHER OUTDOOR SURFACES TO ICE OVER. WHILE THE SNOW WILL
END SOON...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AND THIS WILL CREATE/KEEP HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ISSUED AN SPS TO THIS EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THROUGH THE REGION.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT VERY COOL AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. NICE AXIS OF FORCING
ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 12-1 RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO FALL. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO TUESDAY MORNING.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP TUESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING. KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAVMOS ON HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.  BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE SHOWS NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS WARMING ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN FOR MOST OF THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...BUT MORE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY...BUT THEN COOL TO BELOW
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 927 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATE...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AT
KIND AND ARE ALREADY AT MVFR CATEGORY AS SNOW SLOWLY STARTS
TAPERING OFF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IFR IS GENERALLY THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY AT THIS TIME...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP IS IMPACTING ALL TAF
SITES AND HAS ALREADY MADE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT
KLAF AND KIND. ELSEWHERE...THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOULD
COMMENCE AT KHUF WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND AT KBMG
WITHIN 3 TO 4 HOURS.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MON 06Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR CATEGORY BY MON 08Z. HELD ONTO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING TOMORROW AND THEN RETURNED TO VFR CATEGORY AROUND LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 12 TO 16 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF AROUND MON 09Z. AFTER
THAT...THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH
THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ031-
038-040>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH/CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...TDUD

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