Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231702
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
102 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A cold front is forecast to cross Indiana today, causing widespread
showers and thunderstorms.  High pressure will move in from the
northwest overnight. The high should control Hoosier weather into
Sunday, when another cold front is going to pass.

A new high pressure system is predicted to arrive from the west
Monday, and be moving off the east of our state by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 933 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

GOES16 clear channel shows a stream of convection and moisture
stretching from Northern Louisiana to western Kentucky and SW
Indiana. Surface analysis shows a trough of Low pressure from NW
Indiana...stretching SW to SW Missouri. Radar showing showers and
storms developing across Central Indiana with the convergence of
these two systems.

Ongoing Flash Flood watch appears in good shape. Time heights and
forecast soundings suggest a saturated column through the
afternoon...and precip on radar continues to develop and stream
toward southern Central Indiana. Only minor change in the grids
was to lower thunderstorms chances as precip appears more
"showery" with only a few isolated or scattered rumbles of
thunder.

Look for steady state temperatures or minimal rises in
temperatures with ongoing precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Saturday through Sunday night)...

Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The forecast problem is POPs Saturday night and Sunday.

There is good agreement Saturday should be dry. Some models
introduce a slight chance of rain Saturday night, but the
consensus does not. There isn`t an obvious mechanism to fire
storms then that won`t also be acting earlier when heating would
favor convection. The dry consensus will be used.

A low chance is in order for the north late Sunday when a
secondary front will be present.

With the ground wet from today`s rain, but drier air arriving,
we`ll see partly cloudy days and mostly clear nights from cumulus.

With the models similar about temperatures, the consensus
forecast should be accurate to within about 2 degrees. Late in
the weekend, it will feel more like mid May than late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A strong upper trough over the great lakes will dominate our weather
early next week as high pressure over the middle Mississippi valley
builds east across Kentucky and Tennessee.  The GFS and Euro models
indicate a few showers are possible part of our area Monday
afternoon and evening as a weak upper disturbance moves our way.
Will mention a slight chance of showers north and central sections
Monday afternoon and a slight chance of evening showers west half
Monday evening.   Otherwise...high pressure will bring dry and quiet
weather through Wednesday as it moves on to the east.

High pressure will move on to the east coast and an increasing
southerly flow will allow Gulf moisture to spread north into our
region by Thursday.  Models indicate an unstable air mass by then
and will mention a chance of thunderstorms after the middle of next
week.

Temperatures will be cooler than normal early next week warming to
near normal by days 6 and 7 as the upper trough moves on to.
the east.  Overall Superblend temperatures seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231800Z IND TAFs/...

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

MVFR Conditions will improve to VFR during the TAF period.

Cold front over NW Central Indiana will sag southeast during the
first 1-3 hours of the TAF period...ending the precipitation
threat as it passes southeast. In the meantime ample moisture and
lower level convergence will result in showers and storms ahead of
the front...producing mainly MVFR conditions...but IFR will be
possible with some of the heavier rain showers.

High pressure centered over western plains will then build across
the region tonight...leading to VFR CIGS. Unlimited CIGS will be
expected by Saturday morning as forecast soundings suggest a very
dry column.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ052>057-
060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP



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