Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

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