Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271349
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
FOR AN UNSEASONABLY WARM MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AMID LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND KANSAS. A
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS OVER INDIANA WAS RESULTING IN A QUICK FLOW OF WARM AIR ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FEW CI STREAMING INTO
INDIANA ON SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW STRONG
LLJ NEAR 50 KNTS OVER INDIANA TODAY...PROVIDING GOOD MIXING AMID
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS HAVE TRENDED HIGHS RIGHT NEAR 80 AS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MIXING AND HEATING. OVERALL...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AND MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES.

K INDEX VALUES INDICATE THUNDER IS A THREAT...AND WILL CARRY
CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. CATEGORICAL POPS
WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ARE RESPECTABLE...INCLUDING A 40-45KT LOW LEVEL
JET LATE TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT BEST...FEW
HUNDRED JOULES AT MOST ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SEVERE THREAT.

POST FRONT...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED.

ON MAX/MIN TEMPS...ADJUSTED CONSENSUS TO NEARER WETBULB NUMBERS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIP EXPECTED. CONSENSUS LOOKED
REASONABLE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE FIELDS VARY BY MODEL BUT OVERALL TREND LOOKS DRIER. DROPPED
POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT (00Z SAT) THE
FRONT APPEARS TO WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR THEN...AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD ACTUALLY AS BROAD
TROUGHING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION...NORTHWEST FLOW AND ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. HALLOWEEN WILL BE
COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ON AVERAGE. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND/OR
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR FOR THE PERIOD. POSSIBLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
SHOWERS LATER ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
270000Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME 190-210 DEGREES...WITH SOME SURFACE GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
INTRODUCED MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAFS...AROUND 12-15Z FOR
MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KBMG LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NO VIS/CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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