Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 252017
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

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