Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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816
FXUS63 KIND 021959
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
and LONG TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 209 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Increasingly winterish pattern this coming week as series of
weather systems move through the region and third in the series
pulls first shot of arctic air and measurable snows of this season
into the Ohio Valley. Near seasonal temperatures into mid week
next week transition to well below normal by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 209 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Cloud deck remains persistent across our forecast area. There`s a
few thin spots in the cloud shield back across Illinois and Iowa.
Expect a few holes in our cloud deck overnight but overall skies
remain mostly cloudy. With that, min temperatures will be a tad
warmer than earlier forecast...close to 30F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday and Sunday/...

Issued at 209 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

High pressure moves across the region with dry and tranquil
conditions while storm systems trek east from the Rockies. Under
generally cloudy skies with a few peeks at the sun, diurnal rises
will be slightly better than today. Max temps should again reach
the lower half of the 40s.

Saturday night, surface ridge moves east as high clouds thicken
and top down saturation occurs. Models are tad faster in
precipitation arrival prior to daybreak Sunday. Sunday morning
soundings show saturation down to freezing level near 1000 feet
above ground, surface dewpoints just below freezing and and
surface wetbulbs at or just above freezing. Thus expect a bit of
mixed precipitation at the outset in the southwest but more likely
mostly light snow north across WC and NW counties. Ground at or
above freezing should melt most snow that falls. Min temps Sunday
morning will be at or just below freezing most areas and just
above freezing in southwest counties.

Sunday...slow warming will bring gradual northward transition to
all rain during the morning. Perhaps a few tenths slushy
accumulation in grassy areas may occur near KLAF. Afternoon max
temps bumped down a degree or so to near 40 with overcast/wet
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night into Friday/...

Issued at 209 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

First system clears the area Sunday evening but residual
cloudiness will linger, keeping Monday min temps just above
freezing.

Tranquil day Monday as high pressure moves across the region and
brings a few periods of sunshine, allowing max temperatures to
reach the lower and middle 40s again.

Models all indicate upper closed low over Mexico lifting out
across SW Gulf and into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Warming in
advance of this system keeps this a rain system for our area and
precipitation exits before turning cold enough to snow.

From Tuesday on, models diverge on solutions, at least with
regard to precipitation amounts and timing, as well as arrival
time of arctic air. Have stayed with blend of models,
precipitation arriving Wednesday afternoon, as rain, with
temperatures in the upper 30s. Arctic air begins filtering in
Wednesday night and rain transitions to snow in the wrap-around with
some accumulation probable, depending on strength of this system
as it pulls away. Snow showers continue throughout the day
Thursday into Thursday evening with additional light snow
accumulations again. Thursday temperatures should be steady or
slowly falling through the 20s while Friday max temps remain in
the 20s. Wind chills in the single digits are expected Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 021800Z TAFs/...

Issued at 1156 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

VFR deck across routes extending back into Dakotas should remain
common feature through the period. Deck around 2000 feet should
scatter out as afternoon progresses.

Visible satellite shows some breaks in cloud deck across Iowa
which should progress this way and may be more diurnally driven
thus suggesting possible scattering of all low decks after 030600z
per some model data. Low confidence in this solution given that it
is often difficult to clear lower cloud until warm advection kicks
in or next wave approaches which means at or beyond this forecast
period.

Winds around 10 kts will drop off by sundown and remain below 10
knots thereafter.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK



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