Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 281652
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1252 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS WE START
THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MORE DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1001 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS AN AREA OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT ON WHICH WEAK UPPER FORCING IS ACTING ON.

THE AREA OF HIGHER WATER CONTENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPPER FORCING
WILL CONTINUE INTO INTO MID AFTERNOON AS A VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA. THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP.

HOWEVER...THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH THAT COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF
COVERAGE INCREASES WILL HAVE TO UPDATE TO INCLUDE THEM.

OTHERWISE JUST MADE MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES OR SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

GFS AND NAM REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL USE A BLEND. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY...AGAIN WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. THUS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS AND
THICKNESSES...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE.

THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW HINTS OF A BREAKDOWN AS
SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MUCH OF
THE FORCING WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
INDIANA. AS THAT SHORT WAVE DEPARTS...A SECOND RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF IN IT/S WAKE. THE SECOND RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROTECT INDIANA FROM ANY PASSING UPPER DYNAMICS INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A BROAD TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...HINTING OF CHANGES EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING
THIS PERIOD. A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT SATURDAY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK MAY BE
QUITE DYNAMIC...WITH SEVERAL ENSEMBLES INDICATING SUB 990MB SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

OTHER THAN BRIEF PERIODS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

GULF MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO RIDE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HAVE SEEN SOME VFR CU FORM AND EXPECT THAT TO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS
UP AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CIRRUS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO MONDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5KTS
OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.