Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 120235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ALLOWING WARM AND HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS WELL AS
CREATING CHANCES FOR RAIN. COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS WILL COME WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

LEFT IT DRY UNTIL AFTER 2 AM WHEN THE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES DOWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE DRY WITH RECEDING HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. OVERNIGHT WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST AND SHOULD
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THERE. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK.

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR WEST WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
MAINTAINING THIS STORMS AS THEY MOVE IN...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
REMAINING TO THE WEST OF INDIANA.

THUS HAVE DECIDED TO ONLY GO CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REACHING THE INDY AREA BY
12Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS BEST GIVEN EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS SEEMS A BIT
FAST WITH FINAL FRONT ON MONDAY COMPARED WITH OTHER MODELS AND ITS
OWN PREVIOUS RUN. THEREFORE WENT CLOSER TO A BLEND WITHOUT THE GFS
INCLUDED.

WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SPREAD LOW POPS EAST
DURING THE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT
AROUND...BUT CLOUDS/RAIN FROM EARLIER COMPLEX COULD INHIBIT THIS
SOME. THUS WENT LOW POPS MOST AREAS TO COVER ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING AS
FORCING DIMINISHES...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE. WENT LIKELY POPS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
AND CHANCE POPS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AGAIN WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME DECENT FORCING AVAILABLE WENT LIKELY
POPS NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

POPS SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ON
MONDAY A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND COULD DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY DISREGARD AND GO
WITH A BLEND OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX LOOK TO NOT PASS
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING
INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS
HUDSON BAY...A SHORTWAVE OR TWO LOOK TO IMPACT THE AREA WHICH COULD
SPARK SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THEREFORE...INSERTED LOW END POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HELD OFF ON ADDING ANYTHING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH STRONGER SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS COOL
CANADIAN AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW. AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS PULLING AWAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT BUT STILL NOT REACH
AVERAGE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD...
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE TAF SITES
LATE IN TAF PERIOD. EXACT TIMING IS STILL NEBULOUS...BUT PRECIP
SHOULD START ENTERING THE VICINITY SOME TIME BETWEEN SAT 18-21Z.
WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHERLY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO
7 KTS...INCREASING UP TO 12 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/MK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....LEE
AVIATION...TDUD

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