Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 031909
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
THEN SEE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A STALLED COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOARING
TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY WILL AIDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THIS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. HAVE LEFT LOW
POPS IN FOR THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AT LEAST NORTH OF I 70. MOS
BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONDITIONS FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S (FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TO THE SOUTH JUST FAR ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY LATER TUESDAY
EVENING...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY DURING THE
DAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY THE FORCING WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO
GENERATE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN...WITH THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN
THIS PERIOD DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS AT ONE POINT
DURING THIS 24 HOUR TIME FRAME. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
EXCESS OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES COULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
RAIN. FOR NOW HAVE UP TO AN INCH IN THE FORECAST BUT RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON WED NIGHT INTO THU TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

REGIONAL INITIALIZATION LOOKS GOOD AND FOLLOWS THE MODELS WELL.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL
CONTINUE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE IN AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUSHES EASTWARD OVER TEXAS AND
EXPANDS...CAUSING RIDGING TO EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...BUT WILL
REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE MOVE OUT OF
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AFT 040900Z.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A FEW LINGERING CU CLOUDS WERE FOUND ALONG WITH IT.
AS HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TROUGH PASSES...THE
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON NW WINDS.

BY 00Z HEATING WILL BE LOST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR FOG...PARTICULARLY AT
LAF...AS RAIN FELL THERE LAST NIGHT AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...HUF
AND BMG WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER. AT THAT TIME
SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS EXPECTED
A RETURN TO VFR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MORNING FOG DISSIPATES
WITH SCT CU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MMB/PUMA
AVIATION...JP


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