Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251911
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
211 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL
INDIANA WITH RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MORE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS (AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS) STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH AT OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES!

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SOME SITES IMPROVING
TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE NO HANDLE THE CURRENT MFVR
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LEANED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE MORE NEGATIVE (MVFR) NAM MOS WHICH DEPICTS MVFR
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE LIFTING OUT A LITTLE EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SUCH AS KLAF AND KHUF...AND LATER WED MORNING AT KIND
AND KBMG. W/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INTRODUCE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FOR WED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING IN PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ADDED IN TO SUBSEQUENT AVIATION FORECASTS IF PRECIP
LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS.
FOR NOW KEPT EARLY HALF OF WED DRY IN THE TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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