Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 282321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
721 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017


The Aviation section has been updated below.


Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The forecast period will begin with a bit of a lull, but the
active pattern will commence once again Wednesday night as the
next system approaches from the southwest. As a result, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible into Friday. As ridging
strengthens aloft on Friday night though, dry conditions will
return for the weekend. Further out, yet another system will
approach from the southwest, bringing additional shower and
thunderstorm chances late in the extended period.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Central Indiana is between systems tonight, so calm weather can be
expected with high pressure aloft. However, time cross sections
are showing lingering low level moisture with a weak inversion.
So, will keep the mostly cloudy skies that latest Superblend
initialization is producing.

Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 30s (northeast) to
upper 40s (southwest).


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Friday/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The low level moisture will start to mix out tomorrow as winds
increase in the lower levels. However, time cross sections then
show an increase in cloud coverage in the mid-levels as a system
approaches from the Central Plains. So, will continue to trend
toward a cloudy forecast on Wednesday.

As the aforementioned system moves into the Missouri Valley
Wednesday night, rain chances will abruptly increase after
midnight. Meanwhile, thunderstorm chances will remain confined to
the southwestern counties on Wednesday night, then spread across
the remainder of Central Indiana on Thursday as the system moves
closer and forcing increases. SPC has most of the southern two-
thirds of the forecast area in a marginal risk for Day 3, except
for the southwest corner which is in a slight risk for severe

Decided to carry thunderstorm chances into Thursday night as well
as upper low traverses the area, but severe threat should taper
off by then. All thunderstorms should be confined to just the
eastern third of the forecast area early Friday morning with only
rain shower chances across all of the forecast area on Friday.


.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The general weather pattern will continue through the long term. The
main focus will be on timing of showers.

Models and ensembles continue the pattern of having Pacific systems
move through the dessert southwest, Plains and then Ohio Valley with
ridging in between. One such system will be moving out of the area
Friday night. Ridging in its wake should allow for dry weather
through Sunday night. Then, the next system will be getting close
enough for pops by Monday. The system should then be on our doorstep
on Tuesday, so pops look good the rest of the long term. Instability
progs suggest some instability will be around if only weak. So, will
throw in isolated thunderstorms.

Look for below normal temperatures in the 50s on Friday but above
normal temperatures by Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the
second system. Blend highs in the 60s look good.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 29/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

MVFR ceilings will predominate during the first 14 to 18 hours of
the TAF period, except for a period of borderline VFR/MVFR at
HUF/BMG. Conditions will likely become VFR across all sites
tomorrow afternoon.

Moisture lingering under an inversion aloft will keep widespread
cloud cover in place overnight into Wednesday, with ceilings
likely to build down overnight as cooling occurs. At this time it
appears likely that conditions will remain MVFR.

Winds through the period will generally be 10KT or less. Northerly
winds initially will gradually become easterly overnight into

No significant obstructions to visibility are expected through the





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