Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 170336 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1036 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

Isolated light rain showers have ended across southeastern
Kentucky. Have made a few small adjustments to the low
temperatures based on the current trends in observations.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 729 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

A few showers will linger for the next hour or so across far
southeastern Kentucky, otherwise, cooler air will gradually work
in overnight. Have adjusted the lows a bit based on some of the
higher resolution model guidance, which suggest clouds will be
hanging on. As such, went a tad warmer on the overnight lows, but
still lower 30s north of I-64, to near 40 degrees in the valleys
bordering Tennessee and Virgina. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

Cold front is now exiting to our south with the upper level
support for the rain earlier today now exiting as well. This has
allowed showers to weaken and dissipate from the north. Rain
should be done for most areas over the next 1 to 2 hours with just
a few showers lingering in southeast Kentucky. Colder air is
advecting into the region with temperatures falling through the
40s. While models are generally supportive of some partial
clearing, current satellite trends seem to be less supportive.
Cloud cover is still firmly entrenched across the area and it may
be hard to erode as low level winds veer around to the northeast
tonight. Thus, going to go more robust with the sky cover and that
should help keep lows in the low to mid 30s tonight.

A shortwave trough will bring another round of rain back into
eastern Kentucky after dawn on Saturday. With the colder air
already in place, we could see a brief shot of light snow or sleet
early, before everything transitions to rain. Rainfall could be
locally heavy in the southeast with up to or just over an inch
possible. With the rain and saturated ground, flood watch will
continue for southeast Kentucky. The rain will come to an end by 8
pm. Some drizzle could linger well into Saturday night, but the
more substantial precipitation will be over.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 415 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

Surface high pressure and shortwave mid level ridging will
briefly work across the area to start the period with an upper
level ridge in place southeast of Bermuda with another over parts
of the eastern Pacific with rather zonal flow across the northern
Conus at that point. However, an upper level low is expected to be
working across the Pacific northwest to begin the period and is
expected to dig south across the west before slowly moving east
from the Rockies and to the Plains near the end of the period.
From the early to middle part of next week, heights are expected
to rise across the southeast with upper ridging becoming centered
between Bermuda and the southeast US Coast. The ridge is expected
to dampen late in the period. At the surface, high pressure will
shift east of the area from Sunday into Monday while low pressure
tracks from the Plains to Ontario with a baroclinic zone to its
south slowing down and remaining in place generally from Quebec
and Ontario across the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. As the
pattern amplifies, a warm front will lift north through the region
as well from Sunday night into Monday with PW increasing back to
near or above 1 inch and then likely remaining near 1 inch for
most of the period across east KY. Downstream of the trough
moving through the west, several weaker shortwaves should lead to
a series of waves of low pressure moving along this frontal zone.

Some moderate rainfall amounts are possible with the warm front on
Sunday nigh into Monday with the focus for heavier rainfall then
remaining closer to the boundary through the middle of the week.
With the region in the warm sector with southerly flow persisting
and anomalous heights over the area temperatures will persist
through at least midweek. MEX MOS is forecasting a record high
temperature not only for the 20th on Tuesday but for the month as
well. The ECMWF MOS is also forecasting a record high for the day
on Tuesday as well.

As the frontal zone moves into the area at midweek and then slows
down over or south of the area and southwest flow remaining the
wet pattern will continue from midweek through the end of the
period. Near moist adiabatic lapse rates, especially aloft may
support some embedded thunder around midweek on Wed into Wed
night. If the boundary were to stall across the region some heavy
amounts would be possible and lead to flooding concerns. However,
confidence in heavier amounts over East and southeast KY is low,
but the potential will continue to be monitored for late in the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

MVFR clouds will hang on across the area through most of the
night, before temporarily breaking up towards dawn Saturday.
Clouds will then gradually sink to IFR or lower once again
thereafter, as another round of rain moves in from the southwest
during the day on Saturday. Northwest winds of around 10 kts,
will gradually diminish and become more variable late tonight
into Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 AM EST Saturday through Saturday evening for
KYZ080-084>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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