Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 300757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
357 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

The well advertised upper low continues to spin over Lexington this
morning, bringing isolated shower activity to far eastern Kentucky
toward the Ohio Valley. Dry slotting has wrapped into much of the
rest of eastern Kentucky on the northwestern flank of a surface low
positioned across western North Carolina. Will continue to see the
main precipitation shield move northward through the day today as
the upper low slowly wobbles toward the Ohio River, thus keeping
much of eastern Kentucky dry. For those areas in the Bluegrass
region and near the West Virginia border who do see rain today,
capping aloft should negate any chances for thunder with cloud tops
struggling to punch above 10k feet. Nonetheless, will still hang on
to a good deal of cloud cover through the day under the presence of
cyclonic flow. A meager intrusion of warmer air aloft as the low
meanders northwestward will help warm temperatures a few degrees
from Thursday`s readings, with highs topping out in the mid-upper
60s.

The Bluegrass region through portions of the Interstate 75 corridor
will see a slight bump in precipitation chances this evening into
tonight as an upper impulse looks to round the southern periphery of
the parent upper low. This will help to reintroduce cloud cover from
west to east as warm air advection ensues aloft. Overnight lows
still look to drop into the mid-upper 40s in valleys and low 50s on
ridges as this warmer air will be confined to above the nocturnal
boundary layer.

Will begin to tap into some of this warmer air aloft Saturday
morning as turbulent mixing occurs with deep layer southwest flow
remaining in place. This will send temperatures back to near normal
values, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Shower chances will
be greatest in the Bluegrass region nearer the best pool of moisture
and forcing for ascent. Will again see decent low level lapse rates,
but quicker warming aloft near the 700 mb level will promote strong
enough capping again to keep any mention of thunder out of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

The extended period should feature isolated rain showers to begin
the period Saturday and Sunday, as a slow moving area of low
pressure slowly rotates through the region. They system will have
only meager lift an moisture associated with it, so any showers that
form with it should be isolated to scattered at best, mainly for the
western and northern portions of the forecast area. Once the upper
low rotates out of the Ohio Valley and out of our area Sunday
evening, the remainder of the extended should be dry and pleasant. A
ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle over the region through
out the upcoming work week, which would bring mostly clear to partly
cloud skies, dry conditions, and light winds to eastern Kentucky.
Daily highs are expected to top out in the 70s for most locations. A
few spots along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway
corridor may reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees Tuesday and
Wednesday. Nightly lows should bottom out in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Fog and low stratus will plague all sites overnight into Friday
morning. VLIFR to at least IFR conditions appear to be a good bet
at some point before daybreak. Fog and visibility reductions look
to be more prevalent at LOZ/SME where quicker clearing will occur,
while stratus build down will likely be more of an issue early
tonight at JKL/SJS/SYM before transitioning to less robust of a
stratus deck in exchange for greater visibility reductions. Expect
a return to VFR conditions within an hour or two after sunrise as
drier air wraps into the region this morning along with the
occurrence of daytime mixing.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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