Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 270748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME PESKY CU HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE...TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE LOW
TEMPS. SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S SO BUMPED THE LOWS
DOWN 1-2 DEGREES...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS FORECAST TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE SHORT TERM. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EWD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE FOLLOWING SUITE BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
EAST...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LL
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN USHERING IN 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS AND WARMER TEMPS...MAKING THINGS FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3O4 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIFT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY AND MAY PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...OR SUNDAY PROPER. THIS
SYSTEM EVENTUALLY EXITS TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WINDOW. A BIG SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HANDING THIS
SYSTEM ONLY A LITTLE OVER 72 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST IS LEADING TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
CARRIES THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE GULF OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INTERACTION WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.
THE 06/12Z GFS SPLITS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THUS ADVERTISING A MORE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS PART OF
ITS ENERGY RIDES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PART OF
IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS THEN SHOWS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL PHASING WITH
WITH THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF.

APPLYING A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DIFFERENCES/INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS...WE
APPEAR TO BE HEADING INTO A MORE SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER TIME TYPE
WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF HEAT AND MOISTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD
EXPECT THAT USING A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE SHOULD
HANDLE TRENDS EXCEPTIONALLY WELL. BASICALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT POPS TO BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT. ANY FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS LINGER...WITH
FOG FORMATION LESS LIKELY THE LONGER THE CLOUDS LAST. EXPECT ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM NEAR DAWN TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...STAYING OUT OF THE TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A
SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE CALM BUT THEN WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JVM



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