Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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248
FXUS63 KJKL 271100
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Forecast appears on track early this morning. Made a few tweaks
to grids for hourly trends. No other changes to the forecast
package ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Short wave trough moving across the Northern Tier and eventually
through the Great Lakes will flatten the mid/upper level ridging
in place across the eastern CONUS through the short term. A storm
complex currently rounding the western periphery of this ridge
will remain well west and northwest of our area today. However,
the gradual suppression of the ridge and increasing moisture in
return flow around the ridge will allow for a growing threat of
rain through the short term period, first across the Cumberland
Plateau, possibly brushing our far southwestern zones later today
and then over most of the forecast area Sunday.

For sensible weather, summer like weather with hot and humid
conditions will continue. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can
not be ruled out across the far southwest and over the higher
terrain to the southeast this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected over much more of the area Sunday.
Look for afternoon highs in the low 90s and tonights lows once
again dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

A strong upper level ridge will be over the region at the start of
the period. Despite its presence, diurnal heating of our humid air
mass could fuel a few thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. The
upper ridge will weaken and break down during the long term period,
and a slow and rather subtle transition of air masses looks like it
will occur. High pressure passing to our north will bring slight
drying early in the work week, which will limit our POP. As an upper
level trough develops over the northeast CONUS, a further change in
air mass is expected. Models depict a diffuse, poorly defined cold
front dropping south through the area Wednesday and Wednesday
evening. Once again, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as
this happens, but the probability is low. Late in the work week, a
continued transition to a cooler and drier air mass should occur as
surface high pressure drops southeast out of Canada over the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Slightly warmer/direr air in place across most of the area this
morning. Current thinking remains that terminals will see less of
a threat for dense fog development given strong heating and lack
of rain earlier today. But persistence, the nearby presence of
weak surface ridging centered near the Great Lakes, and current
hourly trends warrant at least some MVFR/IFR visibilities at
LOZ/SME/SYM/SJS from approximately 8-13Z. JKL may see a brief
decrease in VSBYS as fog lifts and rides upslope towards the
airport from the nearby Quicksand river at dawn, the result of
early morning heating in the valley kick starting our diurnally
driven upslope flow. Thereafter VFR conditions with light winds
will persist through the remainder of the day. Some isolated
shower and thunderstorm activity across the TN valley may ride
northwest out of TN and just to the west of our far southwestern
terminals late this afternoon.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...RAY/GREIF/GUSEMAN



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