Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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130
FXUS63 KJKL 240740
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

07z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure now settling into
Kentucky with a washed out front lying over the southern parts of
the state. This boundary is keeping clouds through the southern
half of the CWA limiting the fog potential down there despite the
minimal dewpoint depression. To the north, a bit more of spread
to the temperatures and dewpoints are also serving to keep fog to
a minimum ATTM. Readings are fairly uniform through the area -
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s most places while winds area light, mainly from the
southwest.

The models are in good agreement aloft in the wake of the stronger
shortwave exiting the Ohio Valley to the east early this morning.
They all depict northwest flow continuing as low heights curl
east through the eastern Great Lakes with ridging found to the
southwest. This ridging starts to build back east through Tuesday
with heights rising and any energy packets coming through the
region weaker and weaker. Given the model agreement will favor a
general blend with particular attention to the HRRR and NAM12
solutions in the near term.

Sensible weather will feature another warm day, though not quite
as humid as heat indices peak in the mid to upper 90s. The weak
front nearby will be the potential source for storm development by
midday, but the models are not very impressive so have kept the
PoPs in the chance category. Drier air will continue to seep into
the area at all levels also limiting the storm potential and
certainly concerns for excessive rainfall. This is due to lower
PW air for most of the CWA now that the deeper moisture has pushed
off to the south. For tonight, will have to be on the lookout for
low stratus to develop along with fog, but otherwise it will be a
quiet night in a rising heights environment. Similarly, Tuesday
looks dry and warm with partly sunny conditions and minimal storm
chances as a deep cap develops while the mid level ridge spreads
northeast into the region.

Again used the CONSShort as the start for the forecast grids with
only minor point adjustments to lows and highs. Did adjust PoPs
today to better align with the front and HRRR QPF depictions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

The extended period will start off warm and dry as a ridge of high
pressure settles over the region. Normal to slightly above normal
temperatures will accompany light and variable winds Tuesday night
through Thursday. After that, however, a slow moving frontal
boundary will invade the area from the north. This boundary will
bring chances for rain to eastern Kentucky from Thursday morning
through Saturday. The highest probability for rain will likely occur
Thursday night and Friday, as a cold front moves slowly across the
area. The rain should taper off during the day on Saturday, as the
front begins to exit the area. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms are expected to linger across our eastern and southern
counties through Sunday evening, as the front stalls out just to the
south of the area, and an wave of low pressure aloft moves across
the eastern Great Lakes region. Temperatures from Friday onward are
expected to be below normal, due to persistent cloud cover and
precipitation. Highs from Friday through Sunday will max out in the
lower 80s across the area, while max values on Wednesday and
Thursday should be in the upper 80s. Nightly low will be in the 60s,
with the warmest nights at the start of the period, and the coolest
nights from Thursday night onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

An upper level disturbance will swing through the Ohio Valley
during the rest of the night likely helping to sustain some cloud
cover. As such, have only allowed for a small window of MVFR fog
at SME and LOZ. Should more clearing take place, then the
potential for more substantial fog will increase. Most fog will
burn off by 13z, with a return to VFR conditions with any storm
chances for the day Monday too small to put into the TAFs. Winds
will average around 5 kts or less through the period, mainly out
of the west southwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF



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