Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 262000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

The latest surface map features a modest ridge of high pressure
aligned from the Ohio Valley down through Florida. Broad low
pressure is located across Missouri and Oklahoma, with a warm
front aligned to the east into central Indiana. Aloft, the flow is
fairly zonal across the southern half of the CONUS. Further
north, a short wave trough is pulling away from southern New
England, with another deeper trough aligned from south central
Canada down into California.

Eastern Kentucky has enjoyed a welcomed dry day, with dew points
down into the mid 50s, and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Unfortunately, this tranquility will be short-lived, as a return
to stormy conditions across the area is anticipated into the
Holiday Weekend.

Tonight, an MCV, currently located in northern Illinois, will
track east. Organized convection will track east and southeast,
with most of the model guidance showing activity mainly staying
just north of our area. Will allow for some slight to chance POPs
after midnight; however, given a stout cap in place, will keep out
the mention of thunder. Temperatures will drop off into the low
to mid 60s for most, although there may be a few sheltered valleys
that dip into the upper 50s, given the early clearing and drier
dew points in place.

On Saturday, the leftover convection to our north will likely
bring a surface boundary closer to the I-64 corridor. Another
instability axis may also develop closer to the TN/KY border. The
model guidance is erratic with timing and placement of the
convection for tomorrow afternoon. As such, have stuck with mainly
a persistence forecast, keeping chance POPs, peaking in the
afternoon. Model soundings remain supportive of a few storms
possibly approaching severe limits.

Saturday night, a short wave trough will be moving into the Ohio
Valley, with organized convection likely approaching the area
after midnight. There is still some uncertainty on the timing and
to some degree the placement of the MCS. Have continued with
likely POPs across the western half of the area, with somewhat of
a weakening trend to the complex towards dawn as it heads further
east into our area, as is more typical with these types of systems
as they move further away from the main forcing. The greatest
threat with this complex will be damaging wind gusts and also
isolated flash flooding given the recent wet conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

The long term discussion will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

Expect mainly VFR conditions to hold on through the period, as
high pressure gradually retreats off to our east and southeast.
Scattered cumulus at 4-5k feet agl will scatter out through this
evening. Clouds will then increase and lower as an area of low
pressure tracks east, north of the Ohio River. An organized area
of showers and thunderstorms will follow suit, with most of this
convection staying to our north. Some isolated to scattered
activity will be possible after midnight; and will mention VCSH at
KSYM and KSJS. West southwest winds at 5 to 10 kts, will back to
the south tonight, before veering back to the southwest during the
day on Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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