Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017

Forecast looks on track. Made some minor adjustments to hourly
NDFD based on latest observational trends and short term guidance
but this did not result in any substantive changes to the
forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 653 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017

Clear skies this morning will allow for a quick warmup once mixing
commences. Most locales sitting in the low-mid 20s, with the
Dorton mesonet site currently at 41 degrees. This combined with
dewpoints in the 20s/30s this afternoon should make for high
temperatures topping out in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017

Following a crisp start to the day, moderating temperatures will
be in store as low level winds veer south/southwesterly in wake of
ridging pushing across the mid-Atlantic. Backing flow aloft will
take shape between a dampening shortwave trough across the western
Atlantic and another lobe of energy stretching from Hudson Bay to
the upper Ohio Valley, further promoting temperatures warming
above normal into the mid 50s to near 60 this afternoon.

Top-down moistening will ensue later tonight as the latter feature
further digs and extends a mean trough through the Tennessee
Valley into the Gulf of Mexico. A subsequent increase in mid-high
cloud cover and elevated south/southwest winds will keep low
temperatures in the low 40s on ridges. Eastern valleys should cool
into the mid-upper 30s preceding the increase in cloud cover.
While energy will ride south through eastern Kentucky later
tonight into Saturday morning, low level moisture return looks to
be rather anemic in terms of measurable rainfall. Have therefore
kept sprinkles in the forecast as virga may be able to
occasionally produce liquid at ground level along a cold front
pushing through the Commonwealth. A drier and cooler airmass will
advect into eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon as a surface ridge
noses into the western Ohio Valley, but may see sprinkle activity
persist into the mid-late afternoon near the Virginia border as
upslope winds materialize and temperatures top out in the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday night with
an amplified but progressive upper level pattern in place.
However, Kentucky seems to be stuck in a rather unimpressive
overall dry pattern with the northern stream disturbances
possessing a severe lack of moisture. For the most part the,
models seem to be in decent agreement with the seeming difference
being in timing as the GFS is a bit more progressive compared to
the slower Euro. With no strong surge or no strong intrusion of a
colder airmass through the period, temperatures seem to remain
around normal values for much of the extended. In fact, heading
into Day 6 and 7 of the extended, there seems to finally be a
strong surge of warm air ahead of an approaching cold front. For
the most part, high pressure will dominate much of the extended.

By Wednesday night, a stronger disturbance tracks over the central
Rockies and eastward. This shortwave does seem poised to bring a
chance of showers into the area by Wednesday night and into
Thursday. The progressive nature of the disturbance will leave
precip chances brief. However, the euro does hint at much larger
precip chances next Thursday into Friday as well. Thus trends
would suggest a dry pattern overall transitioning into a bit
wetter at the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017

VFR conditions to prevail as near calm winds early this morning
become south/southwesterly at 5-10 knots later this morning
through tonight ahead of a cold front. Mid-high clouds will
increase tonight with any ceilings likely remaining above FL100
through 12Z Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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