Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 041807 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

STRAY SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE FRESHENED
UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 4
2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. CU HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
FORM TODAY...AND ANY RESIDUAL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY LOOKS
WEAK AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90 DEGREES LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH WARMER IN PLACES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AND
MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS HUMIDITY MAY HELP SPARK A FEW WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE THREAT SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCES MAY BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY OR IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. AS FAR AS SATURDAY GOES...HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WOULD STILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY HIT OR MISS IN
NATURE. THUS...WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION/NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED OF RECENT TRENDS. MODEL WISE FEEL THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD THE OVERALL
BLEND.

THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BREAKDOWN...AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
NEGATIVELY TILTS AND CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUAL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN EVENTUALLY SWEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH BLEND WHICH BRINGS CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER IF
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS INTACT WOULD THINK LIKELY POPS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE SPOTS THAT SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. MVFR OR
WORSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME TEMPORARY IFR OR
WORSE VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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