Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271245 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
845 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 845 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

The shower coverage has exceeded expectations so far this morning.
Have increased the coverage to scattered given the current radar
trends. Most of the higher resolution model guidance has not
caught onto these trends just yet. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 752 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

Showers have developed slightly ahead of schedule this morning as
the initial trough axis swings through. Will continue to see
isolated showers through this afternoon before drier air advects


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

A weakening upper low churning across Michigan with a trailing
trough through the western Ohio River Valley will continue to move
east this morning. However, a positive tilt to this southern trough
axis suggests continued shearing apart and subsequently
diminishing upper forcing for ascent. This has been evidenced in
light rain shower/virga activity back across western to central
Kentucky where shower coverage and intensity have both been
hampered by a lack of forcing as well as a dry boundary layer. A
weak front/wind shift stretching from lower Michigan through
north-central Indiana and back through central Illinois will move
toward eastern Kentucky later this morning and this afternoon,
providing the best chance of any lift for precipitation. Sounding
profiles suggest some very meager instability attempting to
materialize, but lack of forcing aloft combined with a mute change
in airmass should hinder the possibility of thunder with capping
remaining in place as cloud cover keeps the surface/boundary layer
from warming substantially underneath non-cooling temperature
profiles aloft. Still expecting highs this afternoon to make it
into the mid-upper 60s in the Bluegrass region with 70s generally
taking shape elsewhere.

Showers will end this evening across the higher terrain as drier air
filters into eastern Kentucky ahead of a surface ridge building
across the Ohio River Valley. Given placement of this ridge just
about directly overhead by daybreak, and valley temperatures
dropping into the upper 30s, inserted areas of dense valley fog with
crossover temperatures easily being reached with drier air likely
not seeping into the valleys before mixing ensues Friday morning.
Patchy fog should be in the offing elsewhere as dry air advection
should end shortly after midnight, giving radiational cooling plenty
of time to work.

Clearing skies will continue for Friday as warm air filters into the
region thanks to upper ridging extending from the southern Plains
into the Ohio Valley. Mid level heights of greater than 580
decameters and 850 mb temperatures of 11-13C will spell quickly
rebounding temperatures, with highs making it well into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

...Record Highs Possible Saturday...Monday...Tuesday...and

The main highlight this weekend through most of next week will be
the warm weather as several record highs may be broken through next
Wednesday.  Strong ridging will be in place over the Southeast CONUS
into the start of the weekend with southwest flow established across
southeast Kentucky.  This will pump in abnormally warm air for the
end of October into Kentucky.  850mb temperatures will be a tad
higher than on Wednesday, supporting highs around 80 degrees.  The
surface high will be suppressed south on Sunday as a weak cold front
pushes south across the Ohio River Valley.  Once again, moisture and
forcing are lacking with this front and should do nothing more than
provide a brief reprieve from record warmth and a slight uptick in
cloud cover.

By Monday, the ridge builds back over the southeast, then slowly
strengthens and retrogrades back to the west through midweek.
Heights will again build across the region early in the week with
850mb temperatures climbing to near +14C or +15C by Tuesday.  This
is again higher than we will see on Saturday, so this could support
highs creeping into the lower 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday.  With
November being ushered in on Tuesday of next week, some of our all
time record highs for November may be threatened with monthly
records sitting at 82 for both London and Jackson.  Daily records
also will be attainable from Monday through Wednesday with many of
them sitting around or just above 80 degrees. With guidance
suffering too much from climatology, have kept highs well above
guidance for Saturday and much of next week. As the ridge
retrogrades back to the west through next week, we should see
overnight lows gradually get cooler as we lose the gradient. Models
continue to slow down the system for the end of the week, due to the
strength of the ridge, so no rain would threaten the area until at
least Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

VFR conditions will begin the period, before ceilings begin to
lower later this morning and this afternoon as a front pushes
toward eastern Kentucky complete with isolated showers. Not
currently expecting widespread sub-VFR ceilings, but will likely
see these approach the low end of the VFR range. Southwest surface
winds will increase as mixing ensues, with speeds increasing to
10-12 knots with gusts of up to 20-25 knots through this
afternoon. Winds will veer westerly through the afternoon as a
front approaches eastern Kentucky, with lighter west/northwest
winds materializing this evening around 5 knots. Drier air will
move in tonight as surface ridging builds into the Ohio Valley.
However, should see this ridge set in quick enough to allow for
ample radiational cooling and valley fog development. Locations
farther west, LOZ and SME, should also see visibility reductions
by 12Z Friday.




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