Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281802 AAC
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
202 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations and
trends. This led to very little change in forecast high temperatures,
but pops were adjusted based on radar and short term model trends.
This led to scattered pops over the western counties and slight
chance for southeastern locations.

UPDATE Issued at 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations and
trends. The ZFP was updated to remove the valley fog as the valley
fog has dissipated in all locations over the past hour or so.
Recent HRRR runs continue to have a bit more convection at midday
into the early afternoon across the southeast counties where
convection occurred on Friday. Cu fields will continue to be
monitored in that area for the need for some slight pop
adjustments. Overall, the previous forecast was on target and no
significant changes were needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Just a quick update to touch up the T and Td grids per the latest
obs and trends. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

07z SFC analysis shows that eastern Kentucky is in an area of
relative high pressure while seasonably deep low pressure is found
over the plains states, to the west. Despite the high in place,
conditions remain rather muggy and prone to convection, though the
activity over the area ended earlier in the evening while it
continued through central Kentucky a few hours longer. The thicker
mid and high level clouds over eastern Kentucky are starting to
erode, but so far this has delayed the development of fog this
night, though clearer patches in the far east will likely allow
for it there earlier than the rest of the area. Many places under
the thicker clouds are having a balmy night with temperatures in
the low 70s while mid and upper 60s are seen elsewhere. Dewpoints,
meanwhile, are in the muggy low to mid 60s throughout the CWA with
winds light from the southeast. Will monitor the clearing and any
subsequent fog development through the rest of the night for
possible inclusion in the HWO and/or an SPS.

The models are in good agreement aloft and synoptically through
the short term forecast, though mesoscale features will have a
bigger effect on the forecast than any particular long wave system
in this pattern. As it stands, East Kentucky will be in the midst
of mid level ridging with intrusions from short wave energy
brushing by to the northwest in conjunction with a trough lifting
north-northeast into the western Great Lakes on Sunday. At the
same time, energy associated with a possible landfalling
depression or tropical storm on Sunday may progress northeast
enough to affect far eastern parts of the forecast area. Given the
model similarity have gone with a blended solution, but leaned
toward the details from the HRRR and NAM12 most heavily.

Sensible weather will feature a mainly diurnally driven convective
cycle over the area with the northwestern parts of the area
favored today. However, the best chances tonight will fall to the
eastern parts of the CWA and this continues into the day Sunday
loosely related to the tropical system approaching the South
Carolina coast. Otherwise, look for patchy valley fog late tonight
and early both mornings. Generally light winds will provide little
cooling both afternoons as readings peak in the low to mid 80s
along with sticky humidity levels. Any storms that develop
through the weekend should have plenty of instability to help them
sprout as well as moderate PWATs to yield a potential for heavy
rains. Will add this mention to the forthcoming HWO.

Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for most of
the weather elements with minor adjustments to temperatures at
night anticipating a small ridge to valley split outside of areas
of lingering showers or thick clouds. Also, upped temps a notch
today and Sunday seeing the guidance as overly influenced by
relatively small chances of rain. As for PoPs, ended up on the
low side of all the guidance owing to a lack of organization to
the convection both today and Sunday and expecting mainly spotty
coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

At upper levels, a shortwave trough will be passing well to our
north at the start of the period. East Kentucky will be influenced
by general troughiness on Monday before ridging builds into the
area Monday night. The upper ridge is expected to shift off to the
east and strengthen turning the flow to the southwest by
Wednesday. This southwest flow will help usher in additional
moisture. A northern stream trough will make its way towards the
Ohio Valley during the latter half of the week with rounds of
energy lifting into Kentucky along the upper level trough axis
through the remainder of the period.

At the surface, a tropical disturbance will slowly move northward
along the Carolina coastline on Monday. In previous model runs, this
disturbance moved a bit further inland. But the most recent runs of
both the GFS and ECMWF keep the feature along the coastline. This
may allow for a couple of dry days in East Kentucky during the first
half of next week, mainly Monday night through Tuesday. High
pressure will build into the region these days potentially keeping
daytime shower activity at bay. However, rain will return for the
second half of the week as a cold front approaches the region. More
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible along
and ahead of the front starting Wednesday afternoon. Active weather
will continue through the end of the period and into the following
weekend as another potential surface low pressure system forms in
the Gulf and lifts into our area by Saturday.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side, in the lower 80s, through
the first half of the work week. A cold front will move through the
region on Friday, allowing temperatures to cool down to below normal
values. Low temperatures each night will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Outside of heavier showers and any thunderstorms as well as fog
between 6z and 14z, VFR should prevail. Isolated to scattered
convection is anticipated, mainly through 0Z and then again late
in the period after 9Z. As previously noted, the renewed
potential for fog later tonight, should mainly be dictated by
places that experience any rain this afternoon or evening and the
typically favored valley locations. Winds will remain light
through the period outside of any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP



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