Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 220026
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
826 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING.
LAST OF THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS SLIPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A GOOD PUSH OF CLEARING IS STILL TO OUR NORTH...BUT SHOULD WORK
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS. UPDATED
TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED TO REDUCE THE FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL NOT SUPPORT MUCH FOG. MEANWHILE...THE DRY AIR MAY NOT SURGE
INTO THE CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEY...SO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE
MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING RIDGING AND RESULTANT CLEARING IN CENTRAL
IL AND NORTHERN IN...THESE CLEARING SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT
INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. THE CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT MAX TEMPS DOWN FROM THE DAY AND THEREFORE WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S LATE TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S UPSTREAM...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATE TONIGHT TO THEIR
DEW POINTS IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE TOWARDS DAWN TONIGHT. WILL BE PUTTING
THIS IN THE HWO AND ALLOWING THE EVENING OR EVEN THE NIGHT SHIFT
DECIDE IF AN SPS IS NEEDED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE AREA
NEVER CLEARS OUT AND STAYS OVERCAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BUT WILL GO WITH THE CLEARING SCENARIO LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 70S.
ALSO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE
WEST...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN
THE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND WHAT THE SREF AND NAM
ARE ADVERTISING...ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CLOUDS AND WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR MASS MODIFIES AND MIN
TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL. CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER NEW ENGLAND COAST LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
SITS OVER THE 4 CORNER STATES IN THE SW CONUS...FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN A RIDGING PATTERN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...PROMOTING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD...SO TO
WILL THE RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY...BEST RIDGING
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN GULF STATES
SHIFTING EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO RIDE UP ALONG THE RIDGE...AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN  KY. WHILE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE A BIT MORE
DISPLACED...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
GENERATED BY THESE SHORTWAVES. IF THE ECMWF AND NAM PAN OUT...SOME
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD POP UP AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...THEN DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A QUITE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME FOR
ANY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO PAN OUT SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP
WITH INCREASED POPS BUT GENERALLY SUB SLIGHT CHANCES. OTHERWISE...
THE GFS TAKES THE LEAD ON BRINGING IN THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP
FASTER...PUSHING IT THROUGH AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE INCONSISTENCIES...AND THE FACT IT IS SO FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...DIDN/T DEVIATE MUCH FROM A MODEL BLEND OF THE TWO. BOTH
OF WHICH CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

ONCE THE RAIN DOES MOVE IN...PWATS INCREASE QUITE QUICKLY AND REMAIN
1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THIS COULD BE QUITE A WET SCENARIO...AND MAYBE SOMETHING TO
WATCH OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT BEST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GENERALLY...WINDS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS
EVENT...GIVING LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER...SPEED SHEER...OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THIS IS STILL FAIRLY FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH PARAMETERS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...AND WITH
WARM SEASON RAIN PROCESSES AND FORCING ALOFT...WOULDN/T RULE OUT
SOME ELEVATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN
PRODUCERS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO LEAD TO
SOME GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES INTO THE MID 80S DURING THE
WEEKEND. AND WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS WILL DISPLAY A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT PATTERN THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. ONCE THE RAIN MOVES INTO
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ONLY BE HAMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...DROPPING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS CONSIDERABLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY GO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS



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