Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

More of the same to report in the short term portion of the
forecast. The model data all still suggesting a warm and muggy air
mass will be in place across the region for the next several days.
Temperatures are expected to run well above normal for the rest of
the week, with day time highs routinely topping out in the 80s
each day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible today through tomorrow as a weak wave of low pressure
moves from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley
regions. The best time for thunderstorm activity will likely be
from the late morning through early evening hours today and
tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the south at 5 to 10kts
during the day time periods and light and variable tonight. Some
patchy valley fog will be possible early this morning and again
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Models continue to be in good agreement with the overall pattern
heading into the weekend. A summer like pattern will be setting up
across the area with mid and upper level ridging over the southeast
United States, and the jet stream lifting northward. We will remain
on the periphery of the upper level ridging, which means occasional
isolated to scattered convection can be expected for late in the
week and into the early part of the weekend.

By late in the weekend, models continue to indicate a tropical or
subtropical wave moving onshore somewhere in the southeast United
States. Exactly if and where this occurs is still in question, with
the 12z GFS suggesting the system would move northwest from South
Carolina bringing deep moisture along with increasing rain chances
to eastern KY early next week. However, the 12Z ECMWF indicates
impacts with this system will remain east of the Appalachians. Both
the  GFS and ECMWF are continuing trends they`ve shown in recent
runs. So while they are not in agreement with each other they are
consistent. Confidence in any specific model solutions for Sunday
onward is lower than normal, but based on latest guidance and the
standard model blend will end up with a forecast with daily rain
chances increasing each day from Sunday through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid level
deck will overspread the area overnight. Could see some patchy fog
in the most sheltered valley locations but not expecting any
influence at area terminals at this time. Winds will be light
until tomorrow when they increase from the southwest at 5-10 kts.
Mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms will move across eastern
Kentucky beginning early this morning and lasting through early
Wednesday evening. These showers and storms should remain
scattered enough to not warrant mentioning in the tafs at this


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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