Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220521
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1221 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017

Cold front is just beginning to cross into eastern Kentucky as its
moving across the bluegrass region. A band of light rain (and snow
farther north towards the Ohio river), has developed along the
boundary and it looks like will brush across areas just north of
I-64 over the next 2 hours. Expect a few wind gusts up to 20 or 25
mph and a hundredth or two of liquid precip. Temperatures have
continued to trend higher than models have anticipated thus far
ahead of the front, so have adjusted temperatures higher.
Dewpoints have also fallen off with the prefrontal trough axis
exiting to the southeast. This has allowed dewpoints to fall off
for most areas. We should see temperatures start to catch up to
the models post frontal as we should see some fairly stout
temperature falls. However, models continue to show some low
clouds developing towards dawn and will likely keep temperatures
a tad warmer than models anticipate.

UPDATE Issued at 953 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

A convergence zone over the eastern part of the forecast area
strengthened and has produced some pop up showers. Adjusted the
PoPs to account for this. Cold front on track to enter the CWA and
bring increasing clouds and a northerly wind shift. Ingested
current observations, but the forecast looks on track for the
temps and dew points so no adjustments were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

High pressure will be the primary influence on the weather of
eastern Kentucky in the short term. A fast moving upper level
weather system will move across the region tonight, and will bring
broken to overcast low and middle level cloud cover to the area.
The system will be moisture starved, so no precipitation is
expected. Temperatures will be influenced strongly by the amount
of cloud cover that ends up forming, so went slightly above the
latest MOS guidance for tonights lows. The passing system tonight
will usher some cooler air into the area, so highs on Wednesday
are expected to only top out in the 40s across the area. Another
shot of cold air is in store for Wednesday night, with lows in
the mid to upper 20s on tap for Thanksgiving morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Generally good agreement among model solutions today. We continue to
see a progressive and amplified pattern across the CONUS. Only
feature of real interest for our area will be a fast moving short
wave trough and its associated surface cold frontal boundary which
will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by next
weekend. Models have been fairly consistent in bringing this system
through our area dry, keeping any shower activity to our north. As a
result our sensible weather will remain dry though models do suggest
a shot at some rain just beyond the forecast window. Temperatures
will then fluctuate between brief periods of cooler then warmer
weather. We start out rather cool for Thanksgiving Day, then
moderate a bit by week`s end before dropping briefly again to wrap
out the holiday weekend. Temperatures moderate once again by the end
of the forecast window. Overall temperature will average at or just
below norms for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017

VFR conditions will continue over the next 3 to 4 hours...but
confidence is increasing that a low deck of clouds may develop
behind a departing cold front around or after 10z. Thus, will
bring in some MVFR conditions around this time. Model soundings
show some potential for ceilings to reach IFR, but confidence is
lower in this scenario. West Winds of 5-10 knots will veer
northerly overnight while diminishing below 5 knots Wednesday
afternoon as clouds lift and mix out.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...RAY



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