Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
736 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Issued at 736 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Patchy dense valley fog is affecting the commute this morning.
Getting plenty reports of dense fog, but satellite and web cams
suggest the worse is restricted to the immediate vicinity of our
rivers and other bodies of water. Since current zones have patchy
dense wording will not update the zone package ATTM. However, did
update the grids for recent hourly trends. Fog should gradually
lift and burn off by mid morning, or around 10 a.m.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Mid/upper level ridging across the eastern CONUS will keep a hot
and humid air mass in place across eastern Kentucky through the
weekend. Can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon across our southern and southwestern zones as
a very weak upper level disturbance manages to track around the
south side of the mid/upper level ridge centered over the
Atlantic seaboard.

Sensible weather will see summer like weather with hot and humid
conditions continuing across the forecast area. Weather will also
be dry except for isolated showers and thunderstorms generally off
the Cumberland Plateau and higher terrain along the Virginia
border Saturday afternoon. Seasonably hot afternoon temperatures
will climb into the lower 90s today and Saturday. Very humid air
in place will keep overnight lows up around 70 tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

A strong upper level high will be centered just to our east at the
start of the period, with a hot and fairly humid air mass in place
at the surface. Diurnal heating may be enough to get some
thunderstorms going in this regime, especially over higher/more
rugged terrain. With very weak flow aloft and nothing in the way
of meaningful features aloft to clearly focus convection,
convection will be disorganized and relatively low in coverage.

The upper high is expected to weaken during the long term period,
and an upper trough will deepen over the northeast CONUS. Both the
ECMWF and GFS show this scenario, but do not agree on how deep the
trough will be. Often in this scenario we will have a back door cold
front pass through. However, neither of the models shows a cold
front, but only a potential for a gradual filtering of slightly
drier air into our area by late in the week. One more factor in some
recent model runs involves a tropical system possibly moving through
the southeast CONUS, but the most recent GFS and ECMWF suggest this
may be less of an issue. With such a murky picture, slight chance
POPs are in order through much of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

Area terminals are taking a hit this morning from patchy dense
fog. CIGS and VSBYS are variable this morning, fluctuating across
the entire spectrum of possible flight conditions. Felt this
situation was best handled with TEMPO groups where fog is
present. Do expect fog to lift and dissipate by 10 a.m. with all
sites climbing into VFR ranges by mid morning. Weather looks very
similar for tonight, so persistence should give model guidance a
run for its money. Decided to mirror timing for the redevelopment
of fog tonight. However, being so far out in time and basically
within the planning period, went with an average VSBY based on
this morning`s hourly trends. Otherwise expect winds will be
generally light and variable through the period.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.



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