Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232229

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
629 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Issued at 629 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

A beautiful evening continues with forecast in great shape. No
updates needed thus far.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

An upper low across the mid-Atlantic continues to churn as shortwave
and amplified upper ridging builds across the Great Lakes through
the Mississippi Valley. This last gasp of cyclonic flow has led to
an afternoon cumulus field across most of eastern Kentucky, but a
strengthening subsidence inversion will keep dry conditions in the
offing across the Commonwealth. Will see this dissipate into this
evening as deep layer ridging makes greater headway east. This will
set up an appreciable ridge/valley split tonight along with patchy
valley fog once again, with lows bottoming out in the mid 40s in
valleys and low to mid 50s on ridgetops.

Sunny skies will prevail for Tuesday as high pressure and deep layer
subsidence remain in firm control. Building heights/thicknesses and
full insolation will spell highs climbing into the low to mid 80s.
Return flow will begin to take shape Tuesday evening and night as
ridging slips off to the east. Warm air and moisture advection will
be ongoing through the night, resulting in lows Wednesday morning in
the mid 50s to near 60. Valleys in far eastern Kentucky may dip
closer to the low 50s as the backside of surface ridging will hold
longer influence.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

As the upper level low scoots off to our east, ridging will build
into the region at the start of the long term. Flow will then turn
to the southwest, ushering in higher moisture and warmer
temperatures. Ridging is expected to stay parked over the region
through the work week, shift to the east just a bit for the
weekend as a shortwave trough lifts into the Great Lakes, then get
reinforced back into the Tennessee Valley to end the month of May.
There will be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
every afternoon, but any source of low level forcing in terms of a
front will likely hang up to our northwest. There is the potential
for more widespread shower activity over the weekend if the upper
level low feature nudges closer to East Kentucky (closer to the
GFS20 solution). However, decided to keep it generalized with
slight to chance pops in the afternoons each day to account for
model differences in timing and coverage of precipitation.

Temperatures will average well above normal each day with highs
in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Vfr conditions are expected at all sites throughout the period
as this afternoon`s cumulus field remains scattered and above 3000
feet. Patchy valley fog is possible late tonight into Tuesday
morning, but this should remain confined to deeper valleys outside
of Taf sites. Light winds at or below 6 knots will prevail out of
the northeast today before veering south or southeasterly tonight
and southwesterly tomorrow.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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