Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 260800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 7Z.
AFTER THAT THE AIRPORTS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCES MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
AND CHANGES ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT JKL AND SJS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM
AT JKL AND SJS. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PHENOMENA COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. LOZ
WILL BE ON THE FURTHERS WESTERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST IN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
IS ABLE TO AFFECT THAT AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...SME LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...BUT COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG...ALSO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING AT THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS BETWEEN
11 AND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COVERAGE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






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