Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220745

National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over New England keeping the
weather over Kentucky quite quiet. Clear skies and light winds
have allowed for another night of solid radiational cooling
setting the stage for a decent ridge to valley temperature split
through the night. Currently readings vary from the upper 50s in
the deep valleys to the middle 60s on the ridgetops while
dewpoints are running in the mid and upper 50s.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a Mid Mississippi Valley
ridge building through the rest of the work week as the southeast
trough starts to fill. All mid level energy for this time period
stays well north of Kentucky keeping the weather quiet here. Due
to the good model agreement have favored a general blend with
reliance on persistence and the higher resolution near term
guidance for weather details.

Sensible weather will feature a warm and dry start to the fall
season continuing right on into the weekend. Expect similar
conditions each day and night through at least Friday with a
slight uptick in temperatures the only notable change. Mostly
clear/sunny skies will continue to be the rule allowing for a
healthy diurnal range as well as patchy fog - locally dense in the
river valleys - late at night and through the morning commute.
Will continue to highlight this concern in the HWO.

Used the CONSShort/ShortBlend as a starting point for most grids
through the first part of tonight followed by the SuperBlend
into and during Friday. Did make some adjustments to the
temperatures to expand the diurnal range - warmer during the day
and cooler at night - through the period while also enhancing the
ridge to valley split in the grids. As for PoPs, basically zeroed
them out - in line with all MOS guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

A strong ridge will stay in place across the region through Monday,
keeping the well above normal temperatures and dry weather in place.
Beyond Monday, models remain all over the place as they are having a
tough time resolving how a southern and northern stream wave
interact early next week.  The 12z version of the ECMWF showed more
phasing with this wave, along with the 00z version of the GFS. Thus,
things were looking like they were coming together.  Now the 00z
ECMWF has come in, and keeps the two waves completely separate with
2 distinct cut off lows developing (one north of the great lakes and
another one in the southwest CONUS). With the phased
northern/southern stream wave, the cold front was slower, likely not
reaching the area until Wednesday. However, with the less phasing
scenario, the boundary would come southeast a bit faster (late
Monday night/Tuesday, but would also be weaker. With vastly
different scenarios with the evolution next week, opting to just
include a slight chance of showers/storms from Tuesday through the
end of the period.  Given the continuation of the dry airmass
through Monday, opting to go higher than guidance by a few degrees
on highs and slightly cooler on the lows.  By Monday night, opting
to stay close to guidance with the all the uncertainty.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

High pressure centered across New England will provide for VFR
conditions across eastern Kentucky. However, IFR, or worse, fog
will likely form once again overnight setting in along the river
valleys from 07 to 13Z, but not expand too far from these
locations. As such, will not include any visibility restrictions
at the TAF sites. Winds will continue to average 5 kts or less,
mainly out of the east and northeast, through the period.




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