Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Hot and muggy weather will continue across eastern Kentucky
through the weekend, as the ridge of high pressure that is
currently parked over the Ohio, Tennessee, and mid Mississippi
valley regions, continues to exert some influence on the region. A
few showers and thunderstorms have formed this afternoon in the
humid and unstable air mass that is in place. These should remain
confined to an area generally along and west of the I-75 corridor.
A few showers and storms will also be present along and north of
the western end of the Mountain Parkway in our forecast area
through sunset this evening. Any showers and storms that form
today should dissipate quickly once the sun goes down. Another
round of showers and storms is expected on Sunday, as the
aforementioned ridge weakens and allows height falls to occur over
the region. The persistently warm and humid air mass will still be
in place, however, and with the ridge weakening, conditions will
be bit more favorable for shower and storm formation on Sunday.
That being said, still only went with 20-40 percent chance of rain
across the area on Sunday, with the best time for rain being
during the afternoon and evening hours. The rain should taper off
Sunday night, with only a few showers or storms ongoing along and
north of I-64 by early Monday morning.

Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be very warm and
uncomfortable yet again, with min readings around 70 expected.
Highs on Sunday should easily reach 90 or slightly above for the
entire area once again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

A strong upper level ridge will be over the region at the start of
the period. Despite its presence, diurnal heating of our humid air
mass could fuel a few thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. The
upper ridge will weaken and break down during the long term period,
and a slow and rather subtle transition of air masses looks like it
will occur. High pressure passing to our north will bring slight
drying early in the work week, which will limit our POP. As an upper
level trough develops over the northeast CONUS, a further change in
air mass is expected. Models depict a diffuse, poorly defined cold
front dropping south through the area Wednesday and Wednesday
evening. Once again, a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as
this happens, but the probability is low. Late in the work week, a
continued transition to a cooler and drier air mass should occur as
surface high pressure drops southeast out of Canada over the Great


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through around 5Z
tonight, with mostly clear skies and light winds also on tap. More
fog is expected to begin forming between 6 and 8Z for most of the
area. Due to dry air mixing down to the surface this afternoon,
the fog should not be quite as extensive tonight, with less dense
fog expected as well. The best time for fog will be between 8 and
12Z tomorrow, with the most extensive fog expected at SME and SJS.
Mostly MVFR conditions will be expected, with a few spots perhaps
seeing IFR conditions in the worst of the fog. Any fog that does
form should be gone by between 13 and 14Z on Sunday. Isolated
showers and storms will also be possible today along and south of
the Hal Rogers Parkway. The coverage should be minimal enough to
make mention of thunder in the TAFs unwarranted at this time.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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