Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 242116
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH. WITH
THIS HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY OR SPRINKLES MAINLY TAKING
AIM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AND A POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWER OVER THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST IN MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTY. WITH THIS
FEATURE...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING UP IN MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LOOK LIKE TEMPS MAY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN HERE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. AS WELL...SOME CONCERN
FOR PATCHY FOG WAS A POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW HAD
FALLEN IN THE NORTH BUT WITH REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY UP...WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN PATCHY INSTANCES IF
AT ALL SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT WILL STILL SEEM TO BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DEALING WITH A CONVECTIVE PROCESS AND THE RIGHT WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE CASE IN THESE EVENTS...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DOES BEGIN TO EXIT COME MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT SO SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED FOR
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT
THE VALLEYS AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH TOTAL WITH
MORE THAN AN INCH ABOVE 2000 FEET. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO BUT THE OCCURRENCE BEING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY REQUIRE SOME
FURTHER CONSIDERATION TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
EXIT...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY KEEPING IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME BREAKS MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





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