Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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196
FXUS63 KJKL 111955
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS...LOW PRESSURE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ON SATELLITE...SOME LOWER AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA WHILE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CLOUDS ARE HEADING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE OF TODAY HELPED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH
RETREATING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
FOLLOWS FOR KENTUCKY A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUNCH THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THIS WILL MAINLY
PASS WEST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT ALSO BRING SOME HEIGHT FALLS
TO THE AREA FOR THE DAY. ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL STREAMS OF ENERGY BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WILL FAVOR A GENERAL
BLEND ALONG WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND CHILLY EVENING WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE WEST AND SHORTLY AFTER IN
THE EAST. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING THE SNOW WILL TARGET THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY NOON FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT COULD LINGER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS FIRST BATCH OF SNOW WILL BE ROBUST FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MORNING AND RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
ON ACCOUNT OF THIS...AND AS IT TARGETS SOME OF THE MAIN
THOROUGHFARES IN OUR CWA...HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OVER TO PIKE COUNTY FROM 10Z THROUGH 17Z. AN SPS
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL SPS OR ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL
DETAIL ALL THIS IN THE HWO...AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT DUE TO TERRAIN DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH THE MET TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND MUCH ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY SNOW-PRONE RIDGES RECEIVING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND RAPID COLUMN COOLING
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE ABOVE REFERENCED GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STEMMING FROM A POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SPOTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION LIKELY
SEEING SUB- ZERO VALUES. ~1040 MB SURFACE RIDGING PLOWING INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS
FOR MANY LOCALES WHILE AREAS NEARER THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE MAY
BREACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY
MORNING AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. COOLER LOWS WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO BACKING
HEIGHTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST.

THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE AT THE ONSET WHILE A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S. FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND DAY
RESPECTIVELY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. PHASING OF THESE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES AND EXACT PLACEMENT
OF CONTINUED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY WILL GREATLY IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS/PHASE. CENTRAL TO EASTERN
CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO REMAIN CONTAINED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE BROAD-SCALE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE WARMUP BY
LATE WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

STILL SOME LINGERING SC CLOUDS AROUND AT THE LOW END OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR CIGS TO THEN LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAWN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z FOR MOST
PLACES WITH VSBY DOWN TO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LOW VIS AND CIGS WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
PEAKING IN THE 12Z TO 15Z RANGE. HAVE HIT THIS HARDEST IN THE
GRIDS AND ALSO THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...SOME VCSH SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE PERIOD...
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ068-
069-079-080-083>088-110-112>118-120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF



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