Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 232105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
505 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS. OTHER THAN A MINOR RIPPLE IN THE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SLIDING
SOUTHWARD AT A VERY SLOW PACE...BUT SHOULD GET A HELPFUL KICK START
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT AND BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING
TO NOON ON THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND. UNTIL
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THUS FAR
THERE HAS BEEN NO REAL ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION EXCEPT ALONG
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE NUDGED GRIDS TO LATEST BLEND
OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY TEMPS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
A THREAT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS REFLECTED IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

HE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A MEAN TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR
OUR AREA NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THE EASTERN
TROUGH DEEPENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY
BRINGING FAIR MILD WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE REMAINS OF A POSSIBLE MCS MAY APPROACH THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN PROBABILITIES IN THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z ON SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS THE
REMAINS OF THE RETURNING WARM FRONT BECOME STATIONARY AND LINGER IN
THE AREA...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
REQUIRE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE OVERALL UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BEGIN A
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WITH MAJOR DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN TROUGH AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS PROCESS
WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS KY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WHILE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
DURING THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH THE UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST...NOTED BY WPC TO HAVE
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN BUT SHOULD
REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROPA AT MOST OF OUR FORECAST POINTS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING.
IN GENERAL EXPECT VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD BE
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH A
FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AFTER FROPA. CIGS MAY TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO LIFT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT ABOUT 5 TO 10
KTS...VEERING TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY






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