Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 191958
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS...ALONG WITH REMAINING LARGER SCALE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THU NIGHT. WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHT VALUES ON THE
REBOUND AS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS
RESULTS IN WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVERALL...SO WE WILL NOT
QUITE SEE THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR THU MORNING THAT WE SAW
EARLIER TODAY. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A TEN DEGREE WARM-UP FOR MORNING
MINS. HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN TONIGHT IN THE
FORM OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CHANGE IN SHORT TERM WAS TO
BEEF UP THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AS 5H TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
EXODUS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE AN OVERALL DRYING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THEN SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A FAIRLY DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX AS LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ALONG THE THE MID LEVELS ARE OPENED UP TO
GULF MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CYCLONES THAT WILL BE WORKING OUT OF THE
ARK-TEX REGION AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS
AND SLOW PROGRESSION DOWN JUST A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL
TRENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH
TAKES ON A MORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE WORK
WEEK STARTS. THIS FEATURE WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME EXITING THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE US WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ON BACKSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY THIS POINT...
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY. COLD FRONT PASSES
TONIGHT...WITH BULK OF CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SITES.
MVFR IN CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFT 12Z TO VFR AFT 15Z. WINDS CONT FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TODAY TO AROUND 10 KTS SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AFTER
FROPA WITH A TURN TO MORE TOWARD THE WEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JS






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