Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230738

National Weather Service Jackson KY
338 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

06z sfc analysis shows a deep southern low passing by just to the
south of Kentucky. This low is responsible for the series of
waves - consisting of showers now - pushing across southern
Kentucky this weekend. Currently there is a lull between these
waves, even so sprinkles and drizzle are found across much of the
CWA this night. Low clouds blanket the southern half of the area
while in the far north they have actually cleared out. Winds are
from the north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph locking in the colder
air. Temperatures this night are running from near 45 degrees -
dewpoints in the upper 30s - north to the lower 50s in the far
south - dewpoints around 50.

The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a developing and closing
off low moving into the Tennessee Valley and then continuing
south - rolling through the deep south. The models are quite
similar with the magnitude, placement, and timing of this low
lending a good deal of confidence to their consensus forecast.
Accordingly, have favored the CONSShort model blend for most GFE
weather elements with special attention to the high resolution
components in the short term.

Sensible weather will feature a renewed surge of moisture and
showers pushing north into the CWA towards dawn and continuing
through the bulk of the day. The heaviest showers and higher QPF
are anticipated through the areas that remain under a Flash Flood
Watch. This may be able to be cleared earlier in the afternoon in
the west, but will likely be needed through 4 pm in the eastern
part and possibly longer. For now, will hold to the current
timing for this headline and pass on to later shifts to watch for
a need to extend it later in the east. Otherwise, cloudy, rainy,
and cool weather will be the rule today and into the evening for a
good portion of the area. The exception may be locations north of
Interstate 64 where some sunshine may be seen early this morning
and then later filtered through the clouds - but still seasonably
cool. On Monday, the sfc low should be far enough east that drier
starts to make its way into the area and dry us out from northwest
to southeast - allowing temperatures to recover to a bit closer to
normal for this time of year.

Again started the grids from the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance
set through this part of the forecast. Did not make much
adjustment to temperatures or dewpoints given the limited diurnal
range over the next 36 hours. However, did again beef up PoPs and
QPF, from the blend, across the south given the certainty for
measurable rain from yet a couple more surges of shower activity
during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017

An upper level low will continue to meander up the east coast
through Tuesday while slowly shifting offshore into the Atlantic.
Mid level heights will slowly recover through the period with a
warming trend anticipated the the first half of the week. Dry
weather now looks like it will hold on through Wednesday evening.

The next chance of rain will come late Wednesday night and
Thursday as a shortwave trough drives another cold front across
the Ohio river valley. The front may be shearing out as it crosses
the area, so opted to stay with the lower blended pops as it may
not be a widespread rain event for the area. Regardless, a few
thunderstorms would be possible. Whats left of the washed out
front will lift back to the north as a warm front by weeks end
providing another shower and storm chance Friday into Saturday.
With the passage of the warm front temperatures will warm
dramatically next weekend with highs into the mid to upper 80s. As
it stands right now, there does not appear to be any threat of
severe weather or flooding with the rain chance on Thursday or
late this week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Main concern for aviation through the rest of the night will be
low cigs in the LIFR or IFR range but with the showers in a lull
through dawn, some cigs may briefly bounce up to MVFR. The next
surge of showers will push in from south to north during the day
Sunday with cigs bouncing between low MVRF and IFR and times of
visibility down to MVFR. SYM will have the best shot at remaining
VFR through Sunday night as the main influence of the weather
system passing by to the south wanes for locations north of a JKL
to SJS line. Winds will remain north to northeast through Sunday
night with speeds averaging around 5 kts but up to 10 kts at


Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ079-080-083>088-



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