Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161913
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
313 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Did a quick update to touch up sky cover through the rest of the
afternoon. Also added in the latest obs and trends into the near
term T and Td grids. These have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1105 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

16z sfc analysis shows a moderately strong area of high pressure
over eastern Kentucky. This has helped to clear out the morning
fog as well as clear the low and mid level clouds. Temperatures
are responding to the sunshine to rebound into the lower 70s most
places - lagging by a few degrees where the fog lingered.
Dewpoints, meanwhile are in the the mid 60s for most along with
light winds. Look for some cu development this afternoon as the
high pressure is not too strong at suppressing the cloud
development. In fact, cannot completely rule out a rogue shower
later this afternoon over the Cumberland Valley but the chances
are well below 14 percent - so will be left out the forecast. Did
update the grids mainly to clear out the fog, adjust the sky
cover, and to add in the latest obs/trends for the T and Td
grids. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Also, an
updated HWO and ZFP have been issued.

UPDATE Issued at 806 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

The fog has stayed more confined to the river valleys this
morning. As such, have cancelled the advisory and dropped back to
a Special Weather Statement. Some higher based cumulus has also
developed across portions of the area, helping to keep the lower
visibilities from becoming too widespread. Freshened up the
hourly temperature and dew points through the morning. Updates
will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Surface high pressure remains anchored from New England down into
the central and southern Appalachians, as well as portions of the
Ohio Valley. Aloft, troughing rules out across the West, with
ridging in the East. Another foggy night is on tap for eastern
Kentucky in the valleys, given the combination of clear skies,
calm winds, and lingering low level moisture.

Warm and dry weather can be expected across the area through the
weekend, with mainly valley fog tonight once again, and some
afternoon cumulus during the day. Winds will remain light. Highs
will be in the lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

The story in the extended will actually be temperatures this time
around. Based on the latest model data and the current weather
pattern, we should see slightly above normal temperatures with
highs in the lower 80s each day and lows in the lower 60s each
night. There will be a chance of showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon in our far western counties and across the entire area
on Wednesday. The rest of the period will be dry. Winds during the
extended should be generally light and variable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon though with some
scattered cumulus at generally around 5-6k feet agl before
diminishing this evening. Again, at least MVFR/IFR fog can be
expected in the valleys developing between 06 and 12z and these
may impact the SME, LOZ, and SJS TAF sites. Have set up some late
night tempos for this possibility. The fog clears out quickly
Sunday morning with more VFR conditions expected along with some
fair weather afternoon cu. Winds will average less than 5 kts
throughout the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/GREIF



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