Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 151258 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
758 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER RISE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...UNTIL BETTER CLEARING WORKS IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAKENING BUT BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SWINGING TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST JUST YET. ONCE
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...TAKING THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST...DAMPENING IT AS
HEADS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE TODAY...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS ARRIVAL...AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE BETWEEN 700 AND 850 MB...AM INCLINED TO HOLD BACK THE BETTER
CHANCES UNTIL AFTER DUSK. SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT...HOWEVER THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL PEAK OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH...WHERE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE QUICKEST TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST THAT
MANAGE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AGAIN...TO THE UPPER
40S WEST OF I-75. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE
DAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S...BEFORE COOLING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR NE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BE TAPERING
OFF AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
SLIGHTLY LONGER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WARRANTING THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE BEHIND THE RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE HOLD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MUCH COLDER NW FLOW.

THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO PICK UP IN UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT A STRONG TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE WILL RACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF IS
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE LESS PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA...AND MORE CENTERED IN
AREAS LOCATED TO OUR SW. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SE
COUNTIES...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THESE MODEL RUNS HOLD TRUE. GIVEN THE COLDER AIRFLOW
INTO THE REGION...PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
FIZZLE OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE DEEPER TROUGH /NOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ BEGINS TO TAKE MORE PRECEDENCE. FINALLY...AFTER
DAYS OF STRONG DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...THE LATEST
0Z RUNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR THE POSITION OF
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE SE TOWARD
KY ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THE
LOW STRAIGHT ACROSS KY...AND THE 0Z ECMWF IS NOW CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH /THOUGH NOT QUITE SO MUCH AS THE GFS/ THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. RIGHT NOW...BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CWA
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE ECMWF...MORE THAN LIKELY WE WILL NOT SEE THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT COULD OCCUR IF IT TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW. WHILE SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...MOST OF IT WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...OR BE MIXED WITH SNOW...UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN SOMETIME
SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
TAKE HOLD ONCE MORE TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

IFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL HOLD IN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE CLEARING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ALREADY STREAMING IN OVERHEAD AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CLOSER TOWARDS
12Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 5
KTS...WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







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