Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 250841
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

IR SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WORK
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING PROVIDED BY NEXT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT LATEST RUNS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT OPTED TO LEAN THAT
DIRECTION WHICH WILL MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO
GIVEN DECENT WARM NOSE AHEAD OF THIS LOW DID UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT
WHICH ALSO MATCHES BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THIS ALSO
INTRODUCES A BIT WARMER TEMP CURVE INTO PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
BEGIN OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT BETTER QPF DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH COLDER AIR
THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN 2000 FT AND
ABOVE WHERE A INCH OR MORE COULD OCCUR. MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN SEEING MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT SNOW AS
MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY TRANSFERS
TO DEVELOPING NOREASTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK.

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MOST SITES ARE SEEING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH SNOW SEEN YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING FOR A SOME
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THAT SAID WE ARE SEEING SOME
SITES WITH VIS RUNNING AT OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW
WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR VIS. SYM AND SJS HAVE SEEN SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL STREAMING ACROSS THOSE SITES THIS HOUR. MOST
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE MOST SITES WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ






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