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000
FXUS63 KJKL 121455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
WHILE ITS SHARP COLD FRONT IS NOW CUTTING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
BOUNDARY SIGNALS THE DROPOFF IN THE TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF THE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS...UP TO 45 MPH...ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OVER
EAST KENTUCKY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE MIXED
THE COLDER VALLEYS OUT SO THAT MOST AREAS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S WHICH IS WHERE OUR HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP. DEWPOINTS
HAVE SURGED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S...AS
WELL. THIS MAY BE GIVING JUST ENOUGH ENERGY TO GENERATE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WITH THE FRONT. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES PLUMMET WITH A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE STEADIER PCPN...THOUGH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY FROM 3 PM IN THE FAR NORTH TO 5 PM DOWN TO THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR EAST. THE REST OF THE CWA
SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW OR BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AROUND 6 PM.

PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 THE SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER MEAGER
THROUGH DARK BUT THEN KICK IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS MOST PLACES INTO MID
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WINDS WILL KEEP
THE SNOW BLOWING AROUND AND REDUCE VISIBILITY EVEN AS IT HAS TROUBLE
ACCUMULATING ON THE STILL TEMPORARILY WARM ROADS. THIS WILL CHANGE
WITH TIME...BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE GONE BEFORE THE ROAD SFCS
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO STICK. EVEN SO...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR OF
SLICK SPOTS AND LOW VISIBILITY ISSUES BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE SPS CURRENTLY HAS THIS ADDRESSED...BUT AN ADVISORY
MAY BE WARRANTED IF WE SEE SIGNS OF BEEFIER SNOWS AND BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS UPSTREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS NEAR VIRGINA. AN
ADVISORY THERE WOULD NOT BE A STRETCH AT THIS POINT...EITHER. WILL
GIVE THE NEW GFS A GANDER BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL DECISIONS...THOUGH.

THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO FINE TUNE THE FROPA...WINDS...AND CAA.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. A ZFP UPDATE CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA IN AN HOUR OR SO
TO CLEAR UP WORDING AND TIMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND POPS ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ON OUR DOORSTEP JUST BEFORE 11 AM...WITH A DISTINCTIVE
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BETWEEN SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR AREA RIGHT NOW AND
THE FRONT. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT...BEFORE PRECIP FILLS IN ONCE AGAIN AT THE CUSP OF THE
COLDER AIR. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME ALL OF THIS A BIT BETTER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING JUST
A TAD LATER. MOST OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS DRAPED
FROM SOUTHEASTERN MO DOWN THROUGH EASTERN TX. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...SETTING UP A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALOFT...A WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A DEEPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH MO/IL. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS PLANTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
LOW 60S...WHILE A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN DECOUPLED...REPORTING
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLIDES ENE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE IMPACTS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG DURING THE DAY...FIRST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND THEN
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...AS THE COLD FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 4 PM. SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM
15 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE STILL LOOK ON
TARGET.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR...PARTICULARLY THE NAM. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TIMING BACK A TAD...BUT STILL AHEAD OF THE MODELS...AS THEY TEND
TO BE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THESE KINDS OF DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER CLOSER TO THE 2 TO 3 PM TIME FRAME IN
THE BLUEGRASS...AND IN THE 5 TO 6 PM RANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED AMOUNTS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS FOR VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH
FOR RIDGETOPS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN COUNTIES
TONIGHT THOUGH...AS THE LATEST NAM IS A LITTLE BEEFIER WITH LIFT AND
MOISTURE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THE MULTIPLE IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE
WIND AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS...WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL READINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
BRINGING ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES TO AN END. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS FAIRLY LOW FROM 0Z SATURDAY
ON...AS THEY ARE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME AGREEING ON UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND AS A RESULT...SURFACE FEATURES TO IMPACT EASTERN KY. WILL
RELY ON THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS DISCUSSION.

LUCKILY...0Z FRIDAY THROUGH 0Z SATURDAY IS THE ONE PERIOD WHERE SOME
CONFIDENCE DOES EXISTS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE
RETURN OF WINTER PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL BE EXITING FROM THE
REGION...WITH PRESSURE HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
BECOMING MORE ZONAL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY...WARMING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...FRIDAY WILL INCREASE QUITE NICELY INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS.

MODELS ARE THEN POINTING AT A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE STARTED OFF AS A CLOSED LOW
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND MOVED ONLY SLIGHTLY BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOSING SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTH. MODELS ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY ENE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS IS
ABOUT ALL THE AGREE ON. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO
LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH SOME IMPACTS TO
KENTUCKY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. HOWEVER...EVERY MODEL VARIES GREATLY
ON THE EXTENT OF THE IMPACTS AND THE TIMING. THE GFS40 IS THE
FASTEST SOLUTION...WITH A LINE OF PRECIP MOVING IN BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
SATURDAY...THE GEM IS ALMOST 24 HOURS LATER...AND THE ECMWF IS
ANOTHER 6 HOURS AFTER THAT. AS A RESULT...LEANED ON THE ALLBLEND
SOLUTION AS THE BEST COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FROM HERE ON OUT. DO EXPECT
ANOTHER FEW SHORTWAVES TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...BRINGING MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS SO LOW ON WHEN AND WHERE ANYTHING WILL SET UP THAT WILL GO WITH
ALLBLEND...AND THEN REDUCE ANY CHANCES THAT ARE WITHIN THE ALLBLEND
DOWN TO SLIGHT SO AS NOT TO GIVE PREFERENCE OVER ONE MODEL OR
ANOTHER. CHANCES WILL BE INCREASED AS MODELS START TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...SIMILAR PROBLEMS EXIST.
HOWEVER...IF UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DO FALL...IT WILL NOT BE BY A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE TEMPS
COULD COOL OFF TO JUST BELOW FREEZING AND CAUSE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 842 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP
DOWN TO LOW MVFR/IFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH POCKETS OF IFR
OCCURRING WITHIN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING CLOSER TO THE 30 TO
35 KT RANGE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 00Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOWARDS DAWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN