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000
FXUS63 KJKL 110214
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1014 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...ALL
SEEMS TO BE CLEAR AT THE MOMENT ACROSS THE CWA. LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE
SURE THE FORECAST REFLECTED CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS SPAWNED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS THEN POPPED
UP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND SLOWLY FOLLOWED THE OUTFLOW DIRECTION.
ONE SUCH AREA WAS ALONG THE ROCKCASTLE AND MADISON COUNTY
BORDERS...WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPAWNED A DECENT RAIN
SHOWER...AND THEN REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE FAR EDGE OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR A COUPLE HOURS NOW. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS
SHOWER IS FINALLY SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...WITH ITS OWN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS WELL. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS
TO MAKE SURE ISOLATED COVERAGE WAS INCLUDED FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS
SHOWER...AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT ISOLD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO
OUR AREA AND BRING WITH IT A DRIER...HOTTER AIR MASS FROM OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE
AREA EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
SUMMER TIME LEVELS BY TOMORROW UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE. BUT WITH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. DESPITE
IT BEING MID JULY IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO
THE GULF COAST...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR EASTERN KY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MCS
ACTIVITY LIKELY DETERMINING OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN AND SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. LAST NIGHT...BASED THE
0Z FORECAST ON THE FACT THAT THERE WAS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
IN...AND SO CHOSE TO BACK OFF ON THE FOG POTENTIAL. THIS PROVED TO
BE A MISTAKE AS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY KSJS AND KLOZ...WERE ABLE TO
REBOUND ON THEIR DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AND TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CAUSE IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAWN. NOW LOOKING AT THE 0Z
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF LAST NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS SOME
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS UPSTREAM. IF HISTORY REPEATS
ITSELF...SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT...WITH
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS POSSIBLY KEEPING SOME OF THE DENSEST FOG
AT BAY. CHOSE TO GEAR THE TAFS TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST BASED
ON THE OBS FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT ONLY DROPPING KSJS AND KLOZ DOWN TO
IFR INSTEAD OF THE LIFR CONDITIONS THEY EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT CLEAR VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW