Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 182345 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

23z sfc analysis shows high pressure mostly in control of the
weather over eastern Kentucky. The heat and humidity did build up
over the area with even a few storms able to develop over the
higher terrain of far eastern Kentucky. Look for these to
dissipate over the next hour or so as the instability fades
toward sunset. Otherwise, temperatures topped out in the upper 80s
most places with a few 90s and mid 80s noted. Dewpoints were
relatively high in the low to mid 60s, for most, yielding
humidity levels in the uncomfortable 50 to 60 percent range. These
dewpoints will serve to support a floor for lows tonight with even
extreme valleys having a hard time getting much lower than the low
60s while upper 60s will be recorded for lows on the ridges. Patchy
fog can again be expected in the river valleys late tonight -
locally dense. The forecast grids have been tweaked with those
thoughts, sky considerations through the evening, and the latest
obs/trends for the T/Td grids in mind. These grids have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

A rather stagnant weather pattern remains in place across eastern
KY with a dissipating front extending from southwest IN and
western KY to central OH and weak surface high pressure across our
area. A few showers and storms have been noted with the
dissipating front over western KY, and there have once again been
scattered showers and storms in the higher terrain of the
Appalachians to our southeast. An isolated storm even developed
over the higher terrain of Wise County VA this afternoon. With the
nearby storm in VA we will continue with a slight chance of a
thunderstorm in our highest terrain near VA for the next couple of
hours.

Wednesday will be very similar to today. There will be some
fog to start the day, mainly in the river valleys. There will also
once again be a very small chance for a thunderstorm in the
highest terrain near the VA border during the afternoon.
Afternoon maximum temperatures will again be in the upper 80s and
lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

At the start of the period upper level ridging will be over the
center of the country while an upper level low is along the
Carolina coast. The ridge will gradually flatten and extend east
as we move into the weekend, with the upper low working its way
back east on the south side of the upper high. Our main weather
message going into the weekend will still be the heat with highs
mostly in the lower 90s for the end of the week and the first part
of the weekend. While temperatures will be above normal this is
still nothing that unusual for this time of year, though
overnight lows in the lower 70s for Friday through Sunday are
only a few degrees away from record warm minimums for this time
of year. Thunderstorm chances will increase late in the weekend
and into early next week as the ridge flattens, troughing begins
to take shape in the northeast U.S., the upper low already
referenced moves west across the Gulf Coast states and a surface
cold front drops into the OH valley where it will likely become
stationary. This change in the weather pattern will also result in
temperatures closer to normal for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

Weak high pressure across the area will result in a rather
stagnant weather pattern through mid week, with VFR conditions and
light winds prevailing into Wednesday. Fog will once again
develop in the river valleys tonight with fog and MVFR
conditions, or worse, likely affecting the SME site for a couple
of hours around daybreak - have added a tempo for this. All other
TAF sites will continue remain VFR through Wednesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF


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