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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY