Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
209 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 1134 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers that were moving across the western CWA as of 8am have now
encompassed much of eastern KY, while becoming slightly more
scattered in nature. Meanwhile, the mid level wave is currently
moving eastward into West Virginia. However, this is not deterring
new development on the backside of this span of showers. Pops will
likely need to be increased across the western CWA to account for
this continued redevelopment. Upstream a expansive line of showers
and thunderstorms continues to track eastward into PAH and INDs
CWAs as of 15Z.

These cells are producing strong thunderstorms, but with little
shear seem pulsy in nature. Latest hi res models (specifically the
HRRR which is initializing the best) continue to show the line
reaching central KY and diminishing in strength, with very little
concern for eastern KY and the JKL CWA. This remains to be seen
however. The hope is that continued shower development over
central and east central KY will move across our region and rob us
of some of our clearing and lift throughout the early afternoon.
However if we are able to get some clearing across the area, this
will only help to fuel temperatures and lift, so it is possible
some thunderstorms could sustain themselves into our area.
Especially since the arrival time to eastern KY will be during
peak afternoon convective times.

Will continue to monitor and update as needed. As of now, any pop
and weather updates have been published and sent to ndfd/web, with
a new forecast package sent out as well. Sky was also updated
accordingly, and the latest observations for temps, dew points,
and winds were loaded into the near term grids.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers have become very numerous over the western portion of the
area early this morning, as they continue their march eastward.
have raised pops to likely for most of the area during the
morning. There have been a few very sparse lightning strikes, but
have not included it in the forecast yet, thinking that the
probability at any given location is still quite low this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers developed over central ky during the night and were
starting to move into the JKL CWA at forecast issuance time.
These were occurring as a shortwave trough moved east in an area
of isentropic lift. The hrrr model was picking up on these
showers, but it has shown variation run to run. the forecast
loosely follows the evolution of the precip in the hrrr for this
morning. After this, the forecast transitions to a reliance on
the nam and gfs, with a possibility for more development with
afternoon heating.

The big picture still has a southeast ConUS upper ridge in place,
and a broad western ConUS upper trough. We are on the periphery of
the ridge`s influence. The main westerlies were just to our north
and west, and this is where the better focus for convection will
be. Any pattern changes will be slow to come about. Will look for
a general diurnal trend for precip in our local area, with an
overall decline tonight, and another possible uptick with heating
on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

The extended forecast will feature well above normal temperatures,
muggy conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
The model data at this time is a bit sketchy on timing details of
the weather systems that might bring rain to eastern Kentucky from
Friday night through the middle of next week, so precipitation
chances were kept fairly low, in the 20 to 30 percent chance range
across the board. In general, the forecast is calling for rain
chances each day and night, with the best chance for thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures each day
in the extended are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

While a few lingering showers are ongoing across eastern KY a
the time of TAF issuance, attention turns to a strong line of
showers and thunderstorms currently moving across western and
central KY. Convection is now also occurring ahead of the main
line. Timing this out, expect the western most TAF sites
(KSME/KLOZ) to be affected first, likely between 22 and 23z. The
line is then expected to lose overall intensity as it continues
eastward toward the other TAF sites through around 3z. At present
time, it is hard to know exact impacts on each TAF site, so will
likely need to update TAFs as we see storms are nearing the
airports. Ongoing threats to our west include hail, torrential
rains, frequent lightning, and gusts between 30 and 40kts. After
the line moves through later tonight, high pressure and some
possible clearing will take hold. This may lead to some fog
development at the TAF sites, though confidence on exact VIS
restrictions is lows, especially considering it will be very much
correlated with when and how much rain occurs this evening. Any
fog should clear out by morning, with (VFR) diurnal CU developing
as we head into the early afternoon.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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