National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KJKL 080853
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TODAY. WIDE BAND
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CONSISTING MOSTLY OF SLEET...MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT AFD ISSUANCE. SO FAR ONLY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SLEET
FALLING...FEEL LIKE THE ONGOING ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE TO DEAL WITH
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR...COULD STILL SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO OF SNOW
TODAY...WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION STILL
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS THE TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DID NOT MAKE MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FIRST 8 HOURS OR SO OF
THE FORECAST AS THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD COMPARED TO
ONGOING CONDITIONS. MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS HERE AND THERE PER
LATEST CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. THE NAM12 AND SREF MODEL DATA
WAS USED TO SHORE UP THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH 0Z
TUESDAY...WITH HPC QPF HIGHLIGHTS USED TO CALCULATE THE LATEST
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. STILL EXPECTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FURTHER FLOODING
ISSUES ON AREA RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MT VERNON TO PAINTSVILLE. AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL RAIN TO
OCCUR...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SWEEP A LARGE...FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY
FRIDAY. SUCCESSIVE...SMALLER DISTURBANCES OR SHORT WAVES TRACK
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW OF THE LARGER TROUGH WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SPLIT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW APPEARS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY DROPPING OUT
OF THE INTERCONTINENTAL WEST BEFORE REACHING THE TN VALLEY AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY CONTINUE A THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION KEEPING MOST OF ANY WEATHER WELL TO THE NORTH OF
KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN TO REINFORCE
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN TO SHIFT OUR WINDS AND REINFORCE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TO
DELIVER OUR NEXT MOST LIKELY CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH SOME
MODERATION TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 6 AND 8Z...AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO AND THEN REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SLEET IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z...
WITH THE MIX CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN WITHIN 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER
ARRIVAL. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
13Z AND 17Z...EARLIEST AT LOZ AND SME AND LATER AT JKL AND SJS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106-107-119.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-068-069-079-
080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ058-
068-069-108>114-120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ079-
080-083>088-115>118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...AR