Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 190707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP





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