Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 170615 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
215 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 145 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

Did a minor update to the grids for the remainder of the night,
primarily to touch up the spot low forecast given the ongoing
moderate ridge to valley split. Also, tweaked the T and Td grids
per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Forecast remains on track this evening with mostly clear skies in
place. Valley temps have dropped off quickly with a decent 10
degree ridge valley split between the Jackson ASOS and Quicksand
mesonet. This is slightly less of a split than we saw last night
at this time. Have therefore freshened up the hourly temps and
sent updates to NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Most of the afternoon cu is beginning to scatter out this evening
as some mid to high level clouds push through the area. This
clearing should lead to valley temps dropping off quickly again
tonight. So have freshened up the hourly temps and sky cover. Sent
updates to NDFD and web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

As of mid afternoon, a weak upper level low is meandering across
the southeastern states while a weak shortwave is passing by to
the north of the area. Cumulus developed this afternoon mainly
closer to the TN and VA borders and some sprinkles likely fell
from the weak returns. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge is centered
over the southern Plains to Western Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface, high pressure is centered off the Mid Atlantic coast with
ridging west into the southern Appalachian region.

Overall, once the wave passes by over the next few hours, the
remainder of the short term period is expected to feature height
rises with mid and upper level ridging building across the
Southeastern States and then toward the Mid Atlantic states to end
the period. High pressure at the surface will also remain place
and centered south and east of the area. Southerly to
southwesterly flow is expected into the lower levels through the
period with west to southwest flow aloft. This pattern will favor
above normal temperatures through the period with nocturnal
temperature inversions leading to ridge/valley temperature splits
and deeper river valley fog tonight and Monday night.

Cu and any lingering cumulus should diminish through the evening,
giving way to mostly clear skies tonight. Current dewpoints are
near to slightly above readings from this morning. Coop MOS
guidance supports valley min T and normally colder spots slightly
warmer than this mornings readings. The lower than normal soil
moisture suggests lows a bit below guidance for tonight as was the
trend last night. Highs should be more solidly in the lower 80s
across most of the area with the exception of the highest terrain
on Monday. A couch of Cu may develop, but should be less prolific
than today with some high clouds as well as weak disturbances move
by in the flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Models are starting to converge on a solution with the cold front
passage towards the end of the week, so forecast confidence is
increasing for the late week period.  Strong ridging will reside
over the area through Wednesday, keeping the mild and dry conditions
in place and providing 2 more days of potential record highs.  It
looks now that a cold front will move through Kentucky late
Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a good chance of rain
for the area.  Any rainfall would be very beneficial and models seem
in reasonable agreement on producing a quarter to a half inch of
rainfall with the frontal passage.  It now looks like the front will
be on the way out on Friday with dry conditions returning for the
weekend.  In fact, a shortwave ridge will move overhead on Saturday
and could spell a pleasant fall weekend.  The mornings could be a
bit chilly, with lows possibly dipping into the 30s.  Not out of the
question we could see some frost at some point next weekend, but
models have been a bit inconsistent on temperatures, so will hold
off on mentioning any frost for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

Though some mid and high level clouds will be present, at times,
through the period VFR conditions will prevail. There is the
potential for deep river valley fog again between through dawn,
but this is note expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Winds
may become gusty tomorrow afternoon, particularly at SYM, as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of a low pressure system moving
through the Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, winds will generally be
10 KT or less out of the south to southwest during the daylight
hours else light.




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