Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161859
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON KEEPING IN THE SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO TENNESSEE
AND ALLOW A COOL AND DRIER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DECENT COVERAGE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
COMPLETE THE GLOOMY PICTURE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR
THROUGH THE AREA RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE
MID 60S IN THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH...THOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FOUND NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE HRRR
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A SLOW PROCESS WITH ANY LIFTING OF THE CIGS AND
DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
GOING FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LIMITED ANY
CLEARING. ALSO KEPT A REALLY SMALL DIURNAL CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES
RIGHT THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED PRIMARILY FOR
POPS AND WX WHILE THE T/TD WHERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH
THE BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW FOCUSED ALONG THE
TN/VA BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN ACTION THIS MORNING REMAINS CENTERED AROUND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED
TO EXPAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THE DRIZZLE THREAT WILL ALSO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN
TODAY...AND WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH LIKE
THIS PAST SATURDAY...GOING TO GO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.

STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING THINGS OUT. IF THIS IS
THE CASE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE. GOING TO ADD A MENTION INTO THE HWO FOR THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBILITIES. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WEDNESDAY...SUNSHINE SHOULD
RETURN...HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 70 FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AFTER A CHILLY START WHERE VALLEYS MAY START THE DAY IN THE
UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING STARTS THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. STRONG TROUGHING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS
PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. N/NW WINDS
WILL USHER IN COLD WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL NOT
CONTINUE...HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING
ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS KY...WITH SRLY WINDS
PULLING UP WARM AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...REACHING MORE SEASONABLE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE FRONT WILL LOSE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN KY
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN KY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY LEFT...AS WELL AS VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR PWAT VALUES.
MODELS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO A MODEL
BLEND. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY. DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NEIGHBORING OFFICES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE FACT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT ALONE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME THUNDER. AS SUCH...KEPT IN ONLY SLIGHT
MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE LINE MAKES IT THROUGH KY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT SEEMS THE
INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED INSTABILITY
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND THEREFORE CHANCES WERE INCLUDED.

TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN OVERHEAD
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...AS STRONG
W/NW WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE BY THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MANY OF THE TAF SITES EVEN
THIS LATE INTO THE DAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. ANY CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE FLEETING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING
STRATUS AND DENSE FOG TO MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE BROUGHT ALL THE
SITES DOWN FOR THIS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF






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