Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 271955
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE BIG STORY IS A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH IN
THE TIMING AND TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF. SPC PUT EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
ACTUALLY THINK 5 PERCENT MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ABOUT THE ONLY FAVORABLE
FACTOR IS THAT THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH MIGHT ENHANCE THE
DOWNDRAFTS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FAST ENOUGH
SO THAT FLOODING IS NOT A FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED
AS A SHARP TROUGH PLOWS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
ALREADY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BE DEEP AND COLD AND LIKELY BRING A KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT RATHER MOISTURE STARVED
FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND WE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS A BIT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW IN THE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FRIDAY EVENING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY GOES FROM WEST TO
NORTH...SO UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS NOT IDEAL TO SQUEEZE OUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEFT IN THE COLUMN BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

A 1030 MB HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S). AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE A KILLING FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS THE MID 20S.
THE MODERATING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENGAGES IN ADVANCE OF WHAT WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD..GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...HAVE
BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS PATCHY LOW CLOUD WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD. OTHER THAN A
FEW ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SBH






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.