Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 290900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND YET ONE MORE MOVING IN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A NICE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 20S...WHILE RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...TAKING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND
ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE MORE NORTHERN
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST IN SUCCESSION...HELPING
TO ESTABLISH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST BY FRIDAY.

THE CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO OUR DOORSTEP BY DAWN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST NORTH...WITH MORE SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO
CONTEND WITH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z...PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BLOSSOM AS THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED
WITH THE COLD VALLEY READINGS ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THAT BY THE TIME THE BETTER PRECIPITATION DOES MOVE IN...THAT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING THE SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AT ONSET...AS
MAINLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL STILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SINCE
ANY RAMP UP IN THE PRECIPTATION WILL MEAN AN ICY COMMUTE POTENTIALLY.

ONCE THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH QUICK MOVING
S/WV TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE... WITH
QUIET WEATHER ON THE HOMEFRONT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
USHERING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE END OF THE WEEKEND FEATURES A SYSTEM THAT STILL HAS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY TIED TO IT. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES TOGETHER...IF AT ALL... THE 12Z/28
GFS SHOWS A MORE LACKLUSTER SOLUTION WITH A WEAKER TROUGH WHEREAS
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF SHOWS THE ENERGY PHASING IN THE MIDWEST AND FORMING
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER EVENT FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS
QUITE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS OF RIGHT
NOW... THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN ON SUNDAY WHEN
THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT. THOUGH... GIVEN ALL OF THE
UNCERTAINTY... STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND FINE
TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DROP DURING THE DAY
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. THAT BEING SAID... IT DOES APPEAR THAT WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN TUESDAY HELPING TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO
LOWER 30S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A MIXED PRECIP EVENT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING CEILINGS...PRECIPITATION...
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 08 AND 14Z ACROSS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CELINGS LIKELY COME DOWN QUICKLY TO MVFR/IFR ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.