Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 051720
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1220 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO
DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST
RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM


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