Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300744
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
344 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
SEEING AN AREA OF WEAKENING LIGHT ECHOS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.
THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HRRR STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD POP UP HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO STILL SEEING AN OCCASIONAL
POP UP HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE REGIONAL MOSAIC.
THEREFORE SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP A SLIGHT POP THROUGH DAWN.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT IN LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

COLD POOL HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE IN GENERAL AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS ARE
HANGING ON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER THESE LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 PM. WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES AND GRIDS AT THAT TIME. FOG WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
BEEFED UP...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THINNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SHEARED OUT COOL FRONT
DANGLED SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED
CELLS MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR.

CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MEAGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER
A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS NORTH OF I-64...SO THINK THAT THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR
AREA IS LOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LONGER-LIVED CELLS THAT
MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND
THE SHORT WAVE EXITS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS PLEASANT AS LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY GET ON THE STRONG-SIDE...WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SOME
MODEST SHORT WAVE RIDGING ENSUES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING OUT
THURSDAY WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...WHILE SLOWLY DAMPENING. THIS PULL OF NORTHERLY AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING ENHANCED
AREAS OF LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN SOME MCS
POTENTIAL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DAMPEN THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT WILL KEEP A WEAK NW FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM TO IMPACT AS FAR
SOUTH AS KENTUCKY TO END OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR THIS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK SYSTEM...AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE CONDITIONS...THE NW FLOW AND SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SPARKS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL
OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT REMAIN OVERALL RATHER STATIONARY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS
LOCALIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND GENERALLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND TN. THIS IS
WHERE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND MCS POTENTIAL WILL LIE. BY
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THE LOCAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALIGN
ITSELF ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS TIME AROUND...EXPECT BEST MOISTURE
/RAIN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL/ TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BUT PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IF THE ECMWF MODEL HOLDS TRUE...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING SE ACROSS CANADA WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND THE EXACT FRONTAL LOCATION IS STILL QUITE LOW
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/. STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THESE
MODELS...WHICH LED TO JUST A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER STRONG DOSE OF
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PWATS 2 INCHES AN ABOVE/...AND
POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GFS40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ISOLD POP UP RAIN SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH DAWN. MAIN CHALLENGE
IS FOG. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CONDITIONS OR BETTER AT
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SME LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE AND THEREFORE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR GENERAL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CONVECTION THREATENS ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/RAY



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