Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 281845
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FLURRIES CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS SE KENTUCKY UNDER
NW FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE THE FLURRIES TAPERING OFF ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND DECLINING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HARLAN
AND LETCHER COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY REMAINING FLURRIES TO BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE FLURRIES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING...JUST
ADDED IN ONE MORE HOUR OF FLURRIES IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR WHAT IS LINGERING ACROSS HARLAN AND LETCHER.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MAKING ITS
MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WELL REFLECTED ONGOING CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE DOTTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL HANG ONTO TO THESE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE
THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WORK EAST ENOUGH TO CUT THEM OFF. ALSO
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH AROUND DAWN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
LOWS DOWN IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP
IN THE LOW 20S.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH ZONAL FLOW...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
MILD TEMPERATURES...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING EAST
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL THEN BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY FOR
TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
FOLLOW NEIGHBORING WFOS TO N...E AND W...AND LOWER PROBABILTIES
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN NO MENTION OF RAIN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW LOOK TO TRACK
ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA AND BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE FROM THE GREAT LAKES OR OH
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AS WE MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH WEAKER ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
MORE EASTWARD IN FLATTER FLOW. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR OUR REGION...BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS WPC NOTES THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
TOWARDS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS...BUT WPC AND WE ARE NOT YET
COMMITTED TO THE FULLY PHASED ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE LAST OF THE MORNING FLURRIES ARE EXITING THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL IN COLD BUT DRY N TO NW WINDS INTO THE REGION. WHILE SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU ARE SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE NOW...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN ABOVE THE VFR LEVEL AND SCATTER OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SOME LOCATIONS /NAMELY KSYM/ ARE
SEEING A FEW GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING...BUT EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO
REMAIN AROUND 15KTS OR BELOW AND QUICKLY DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW


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