Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251732
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Fog has cleared and now we have some afternoon CU based on obs and
vis sat. These will remain fair weather CU, given surface high
pressure skirting the region. Also stout inversion seen in the
model sounding data will likely aid in inhibiting much in the way
of vertical growth. Other than the clouds the warm temps will
continue to build across the region, as the 591 height line creeps
NE across the Ohio Valley. No major changes needed this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog
has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly
sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing
into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the
grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect
the clearing of the fog.

UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to
align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary
draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and
Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the
Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the
Continental Divide.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across
eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in
across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before
plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through
the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with
perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will
feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this
morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less
extensive.

Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture
will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the
Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the
Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in
the day near that area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and
dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will
feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday
afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and
storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the
area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then
forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week,
bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday
through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather
will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the
forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF
tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday,
but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per
the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for
the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not
really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are
bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as
the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves
through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the
forecast to end to upcoming work week.

Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we
saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low
to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see
slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on
Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid
60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may
see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday
looks to be a very warm day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Sites this afternoon are VFR with scattered CU at or around 4 KFT.
Some of the sites have been reporting a bit more cloud cover than
is realistically been seen. These CU are expected to remain
limited in their vertical growth given inversion layer aloft.
Otherwise we look to clear out once again tonight which could lead
to more fog potential, but we are not looking for quite the
coverage or density seen yesterday. Did opt to add some high end
MVFR VIS overnight and toward dawn just based on some of the
sounding data. The areas that are at most risk for patchy dense
fog tonight will be the deeper river valleys. Overall winds
through the period will remain light and variable.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ



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