Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 311730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NEW
ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO POP UP IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA. AFTER
A LULL IN ACTIVITY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS GOOD UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN SHAVE SOME COUNTIES OFF OR
CANCEL IT ALTOGETHER BY THE 4 PM AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE DAY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
HAVE BEEN PLANNED AS OF YET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL KY IS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO EASTERN
KY. ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE REGION REMAINED IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
WITH PW OF 2 INCHES OR MORE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MS VALLEY REGION. A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
WORKING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ATTM AS THE FIRST WAVE IS
BEGINNING TO DEPART. HOWEVER...THE NEXT WAVE IS WORKING INTO THE MID
MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE INITIAL WAVE WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT THE NEXT MOST EVIDENT AT THE 850 MB AND 700
MB LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INTERACT WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND LEAD TO RENEWED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO EASTERN KY
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN BY TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THIS TROUGH WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

RECENT HRRR RUNS BRING THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WHERE ANY TRAINING OCCURS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA ATTM AND WE PLAN TO KEEP IT IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER EXTENDING IT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN GENERALLY LIGHTER THERE
COMPARED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES
AND RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE HAS FALLEN
ACROSS PARTS OF WAYNE COUNTY AND FROM MCCREARY COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO
LAUREL COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BELOW
SATURDAYS LEVELS BY THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO OUTSIDE OF LOCATIONS
CURRENTLY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WITH THE WAVE DEPARTING TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO
DIMINISH. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. AT LEAST
PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...WHERE ANY PARTIAL CLEARING
OCCURS. ON MONDAY...THE REGION WILL MORE OR LESS BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FORCING. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND COULD APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE
WARM AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY
ISOLATED POPS WERE USED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH PLENTY OF WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ON TAP. A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ON
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE
STALLING. SOME WEAK FORCING WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DECENT SHEAR
PROFILES...COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY COULD YIELD THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND VIRTUALLY WASH OUT. THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKS END
GIVEN THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ALL
THE COOLER AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 13Z
ON MONDAY...AS RAIN AND FOG FROM SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY AFFECT THE
TAF AIRPORTS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 0Z THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 8Z. EASTERN KENTUCKY MIGHT EVEN BE RAIN FREE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN FIRING
UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS YET ANOTHER
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






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