Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 220813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY
A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL SINK SE FROM WV TO THE SEABOARD OF VA AND
NC BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS A
SHALLOW RIDGING PATTERN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...AND RIDE ALONG NW
FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NE/RN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
EAST. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO KEEP THESE
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES JUST ALONG PIKE COUNTY AND POINTS EASTWARD
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.

MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG PULL OF WINDS FROM
THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN FACT...LATEST
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG JET STREAK ORIENTED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE DAY TODAY. WHAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO...BESIDES HIGH WINDS
ALOFT...IS A STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARDS AND
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS TODAY...WARMING SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW..AND THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE HAS BEEN TALK BETWEEN THE OFFICES CONCERNING WHETHER OR NOT TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. GENERAL
CONSENSUS WAS TO PASS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFTS AND LET THEM DECIDE IF
ONE IS NEEDED OR NOT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER ADDING IN FROST FOR
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS 37 DEGREES OR LESS...WE STILL SEEM TO
BE A BIT LIMITED ON COVERAGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THE FAR
NORTH...FAR SOUTH...AND IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ADDING IN
FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTING 38 DEGREES AND UNDER...WOULD PUT MUCH OF
THE AREA IN PATCHY/AREAL COVERAGE AND MATCHED UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WEIGHING BOTH SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO STICK
WITH INCLUDING FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE 37 DEGREES OR LESS
OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF SPARSER COVERAGE...SINCE 38 DEGREES SEEMED TO
BE PUSHING THE LIMITS OF BEING TOO WARM FOR ICE TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS FOR THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SOME CIG LOWERING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...RANGING
FROM 1 TO 3KT FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO HANG AROUND THE FAR EAST LONGER /I.E.
KSJS/ AND SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY UNDER DRY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF BORDERLINE MVFR
CIGS WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
NNW TO THE NNE AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







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