Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 122100
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ON
RADAR...THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
STATE...THOUGH SOME LIGHTER ONES ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND BRUSHING NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY. ON
SATELLITE...THE EARLIER CLEAR PATCHES HAVE FILLED BACK IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WHILE DEWPOINTS VARY FROM
THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTH. AT THIS
TIME...WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND
BRISK.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP ONTARIO LOW WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THROUGH THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH KENTUCKY IN FAST
FLOW AT MID LEVELS. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS PAST THE CWA
TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLOWLY EASES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...LOCALLY...SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A NOSE OF ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY
DAWN SUNDAY. THIS NOSE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT
HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A STRONG LEAN TOWARD GUIDANCE
FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY NIGHT OF COLD ADVECTION
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT DUE TO THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND ALSO A BRUSH BY OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...FLURRIES WILL
BE FOUND. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OF A
FLUFFY CONSISTENCY DUE TO THE COLD AIR WHICH SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS
TO A MINIMUM WITH ANY DUSTINGS BASICALLY BLOWING OFF THE COLD ROAD
SURFACES. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS STAYING UP FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WILL MEAN WIND CHILLS DOWN TOWARD ZERO AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AT TIMES...OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC HIGH
THAT FOLLOWS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR ZERO IN THE VALLEYS
BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARDS DAWN...
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...MAY HELP LIMIT THE ABSOLUTE
EXTENT OF THE COLD EARLY SUNDAY.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO TERRAIN DIFFERENCES BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND THEN LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AFTER THAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY INCREASING...

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING UP
THE ENVIRONMENT AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH SNOWFALL RATES
BEING SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WE
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT...MODELS STILL IN NOT GREAT
AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS/NAM SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THUS...SITUATION
REMAINS VERY MUDDLED...AND WILL STICK WITH A MENTION OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PER THE GFS AND NAM WOULD OBVIOUSLY GIVE US MORE
SNOW FOR THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOWS TO THE AREA. AGAIN...MODELS ARE FAR APART ON TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...LIKELY CAUSED BY THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD BE WARMING UP AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE STEADIER SNOW WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLY ON...VIS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO IFR AT LOZ AND TO MVFR AT JKL AND SJS.
OTHERWISE...VCSH WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT MOST SITES WITH
NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. CIGS...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN IN THE IFR
AND MVFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TO PICK
UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING RUNNING
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF


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