Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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661
FXUS63 KJKL 230700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

06Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over eastern West
Virginia controlling our weather with clear skies and light winds.
On satellite, some thinning high clouds are drifting into north
central Kentucky but will likely dissipate before having too much
of an effect on temps or sky cover for our CWA through the rest
of the night. This setup is a good one for radiational cooling and
ridge to valley temperature splits across the area. Temperatures
are responding as expected for this situation with readings
varying from near 70 degrees on the ridgetops to the lower 60s in
the sheltered valleys with a few spots likely in the upper 50s.
Dewpoints are fairly uniform across the area - generally in the
low 60s while the winds are mainly calm.

The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict the filling of lingering
southeastern troughing today in the face of building heights
coming east out of the Southern Plains and Mid to Lower
Mississippi Valley. This ridge will bolster heights over Kentucky
through the weekend keeping all mid level energy well to the
north and east of the region. For this quiet pattern, will
continue to follow a mainly persistence based forecast with some
adjustment toward the latest consensus model guidance.

Sensible weather will keep the summer weather going into extra
innings through the weekend with a relatively dry air mass
allowing for a fairly large diurnal range each day. Also, late
each night some patchy valley fog will develop and become locally
dense near the rivers thanks to the longer nights and good
radiational conditions under mostly clear skies. Likewise, during
the days, plenty of sunshine will send readings into the mid to
upper 80s both today and Saturday with some spots reaching the 90
degree mark. Look for afternoon humidity to not be quite as dry
today through the weekend as moisture gradually returns for our
area. So we can also look for some increasing humidity to add to
the afternoon warmth through the weekend. However, changes are in
the works...

Again used the CONSShort/ShortBlend as the starting point for the
grids through the evening and the SuperBlend thereafter. Made the
bulk of any changes to overnight lows to better capture the point
forecast for our ridges and valleys given this pattern. As for
PoPs, effectively zeroed them out through 00z Sunday - in line
with all MOS guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

The extended period will feature a significant cool down to fall-
like temperatures as an upper ridge breaks down and a deep trough
moves through the area. At the beginning of the period, the upper
ridge will still be in place as a trough develops over the northern
plains. By Monday, this upper trough will move into the Great Lakes
region, dropping a cold front through Kentucky sometime Monday
evening/Tuesday. Models continue to struggle with the details of
this system as it moves across our area. The GFS is notably wetter,
quicker and develops more convection along the front, whereas the
ECMWF is drier and has a weaker associated upper low. While a cool
down is still on track for early to mid week, confidence remains low
on exact timing and amount of the precipitation and how cool the
temperatures will get behind the front. So for now, will keep low
precip chances Mon-Wed with temps cooling off into the low 70s for
highs Tue-Fri. Overnight lows look to take a significant dip towards
the 50 degree mark, though wouldn`t be surprised to see some valleys
cool into the upper 40s mid-week

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

An upper level ridge and the continued influence of sfc high
pressure will keep mostly clear skies and VFR conditions in place
across eastern Kentucky through the period and well beyond. Some
IFR, or worse, fog will be seen along the deeper river valleys
between 07 and 13z; however, expect the TAF sites to remain
unaffected by this, once again. Winds will be light and variable
through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF/GEOGERIAN



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