Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300845
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SETTLING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TROUGHING ARE CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A
PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE READINGS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S.

THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOLSTER THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES THANKS TO READINGS PUSHING 60
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES YESTERDAY WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW
RESTRICTED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
COVERING ON SOME SHADED AREAS ALONG ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IS STILL POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER
THAN LOWS FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DUSK WITH DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM
DUE TO THE MODEL RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS
BRING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US LOW AND TRY TO
PHASE IT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HOWEVER... THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS IS WHERE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES....ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST 12Z/29 GFS RUN WHICH
DEEPENS THE SFC LOW AND TAKES IT UP ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS. ONE THING
THE MODELS DO HAVE IN COMMON IS THE AMOUNT OF QPF THEY SHOW. ANOTHER
QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW MUCH COLD AIR STAYS IN PLACE AND THIS
WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THAT BEING SAID...
HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAD MOST OF THE MOIST COLUMN BELOW ZERO WITH SFC TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW. THOUGH...STILL BELIEVE THERE IS A
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A COLD AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO GENERALLY BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
COULD REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SPOTS BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ON TUESDAY INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF
USHERING IN WARMER AIR. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO KENTUCKY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A MIXED PRECIP EVENT ENDING ON THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS IN BEHIND IT... DROPPING TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY WILL BE A CHILLY
BUT QUIET DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALSO BRING A
WINDOW OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 11 AND 17Z. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. W TO NW WINDS OF AROUND 10
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DUSK.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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