Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 010831 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
431 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING BEHIND
A WASHED OUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS STALLED OVER THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THESE CLOUDS
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
THIS MORNING WITH THE AREAS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER STAYING MILDER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
ANY CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THESE CLOUDS ARE
VERY SHALLOW WITH NO DEPTH. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER FANTASTIC FALL DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AGAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE
50S...ONLY THIS TIME...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL YIELD BETTER FOG POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL YIELD THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. SKIES
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEP FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS IS A TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE EXTREME SOLUTION WITH THE CORE OF
THE TROUGH/S ENERGY DIVING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NOW
THAT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE MOVED TOWARD THIS SCENARIO...THEREBY
JOINING THE ECMWF...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THIS SETUP. THE
INITIAL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/S ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA
WILL SWEEP THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
OTHER BATCHES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND
FURTHEST SOUTH MODEL WITH THIS TRAILING ENERGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT GIVEN THE TREND HAVE FAVORED ITS FORECAST. THE LARGE TROUGH
THEN SITS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HEIGHTS RELAXING A BIT.
THE LATEST ECMWF IS MORE INSISTENT ABOUT A RESURGENCE OF THIS TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE PATTERN OF THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FLATTER THROUGH
TUESDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WILL PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED AND THEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE
LATTER PORTION...TEMPERING THE EURO/S ENTHUSIASM

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE LAST MILD NIGHT AND SEASONABLE DAY
TO START THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT BARRELS INTO THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HEALTHY GRADIENT WITH IT KEEPING THE WINDS UP
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THE RIDGES. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND BE A CONCERN THAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. DO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT POST
FRONTAL AS SURGES OF COLDER AIR MOVE INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THIS FRONT AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/S
CORE WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY AND A VERY COLD NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS CAN DROP OFF...SOME PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
SETTLE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY DAWN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PUSH OF COOL TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT
DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH INTO TUESDAY AND COULD LINGER A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.

THE CR GRID LOAD AGAIN PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE  EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH AGAIN DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE LATEST EURO
SOLUTION EARLY. ALSO TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A SHALLOW STRATUS DECK BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND IT. THIS
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH AREAS CLOUDING OVER WITH AN IFR/MVFR LAYER OF CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FOG THREAT...WHILE...STILL POSING AVIATION
CONCERNS. GIVEN MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THE STRATUS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. SAFE TO
SAY...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE WE SEE CONDITIONS GO BACK
TO VFR. SHOULD STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG...BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
AFTER THE STRATUS BURNS OFF TOMORROW...REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS





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