Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 231957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY






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