Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 250533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE FALL OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP A BIT ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER OVERALL DECREASE. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE EXPECTED LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA GIVEN THE ADDED WIND. THUS...HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE LOWS A
TAD. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO REFLECT LESS IN THE WEST AND KEEPING
SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHWARD. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE BULK OF THIS
CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO HAVE THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER EXIT THE
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WAS THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND THE COOLER
AIR IS SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. IN FACT SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE CHANGES. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TRACK
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THIS A LESSENING GRADIENT IS
OCCURRING AND WINDS HAVE REALLY LESSENED ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH A FEW
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY AN HOUR EARLY. THIS IS ALSO LINING UP WITH
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DROPPING
TEMPS THIS EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN CHECK. WILL LET THE OTHER
PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST RIDE BUT WILL SEND OUT A NEW ZFP TO TAKE
OUT THE NPW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THIS...A STRONG...BUT NOW DRY...COLD
FRONT IS PRESSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING ROUTINELY INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE OFFICE HAS RECEIVED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WINDS.
THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THEY REMAIN THERE IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST BUT ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AND ARE BRINGING IN A DIFFERENT AIR MASS. AS SUCH...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S ARE NOW REACHING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED FOR THE 30S. THE WINDS
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BUT ARE NOT QUITE THERE IN THE
WEST. AS THEY FURTHER SETTLE WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE
ADVISORY EARLY. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP...AND FULL-
LATITUDE...TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND IT IS THIS SECTION
THAT TIGHTENS UP AND MOVES EAST LATER TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE ALSO...A CLUSTER OF ENERGY WILL BE
RIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 AND HRRR INITIALLY AND
THEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WINDS SETTLING DOWN THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IT WILL ALSO MEAN A COOLER
EVENING...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN OF LATE. TUESDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER DAY BUT A QUIETER ONE AS WE WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
START TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING. LOOK FOR THESE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME THAT NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IS BRUSHED BY THE PCPN SHIELD FROM
THIS NASCENT COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE THREAT OF RAIN OR
SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS A TOUCH
OF IT JUST ON THE PEAK OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY OTHERWISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINNING
THE PERIOD AND THE FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THOROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
UPPER PLAINS AND DROP SE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
GOING INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER... GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES MAINLY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST WHILE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SO DID OPT TO BRING POPS UP A BIT FOR
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL WARM UP SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TIL WE GET TO THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO SLIGHT/CHANCE RAINS SHOWERS AS
FRONT SLOW PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.