Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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949
FXUS63 KJKL 232150
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 450 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

Record warmth occurred again today as a warm front lifted
northward and sunshine broke through the clouds. It created enough
instability for scattered showers to percolate this afternoon,
along with a few isolated, sporadic lightning strikes. A few
showers were ongoing at forecast issuance, but have been on the
decline.

Models depict the frontal boundary slowly sinking back south into
our area this evening, with more showers developing. However,
there is disagreement on the rainfall amounts and the axis of the
precip. That being the case, confidence in forecast specifics is
low for this evening, and nothing more than broadbrushed chance
POPs were used. Both models show deep layer RH increasing
overnight, and a greater potential for showers. MOS POPS are quite
high for tonight as well. Taking this into account, have hit the
POPs hardest toward dawn. Showers should last into the day on
Saturday. The frontal boundary is expected to lift northward again
on Saturday, and forecast soundings also show weak instability
developing during the day. A slight chance of thunder is included
in the forecast for Saturday. Barring training, rainfall amounts
do not look overly impressive tonight and Saturday. If training
occurs and localized amounts are heavier than forecast, some water
problems can`t be ruled out. With a flood watch already in place,
will leave run. However, the heaviest rain will probably occur on
Saturday night.

On Saturday night, a strong low pressure system tracking through
the Midwest will bring a definitive cold frontal passage and a
band of showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Brisk low level flow
from the southwest will develop ahead of the front. If enough
instability can develop to mix down environmental winds, severe
weather can`t be ruled out. However the better chance is further
west. The front and its showers will be progressive, so that once
it passes overnight and early Sunday morning, our hydro concerns
will end for a while.



.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

A cold front will exit southeast Kentucky on Sunday, and rain
chances will decrease as the day continues. While the 12Z GFS pushes
the front far enough southeast Sunday night that rain chances would
come to an end, the 12Z ECMWF shows another wave moving northeast
along the front and thus keeping at least a slight chance of showers
in the far southeast into Monday. Our standard blended model
approach actually takes this into account and our forecast will push
rain chances back north Sunday night, with slight rain chances
lingering into Monday afternoon in the far southeast. Forecast rain
amounts Sunday morning will mostly be less than 0.25 inch. Any rain
from Sunday afternoon into Monday will be on the light side with
amounts of 0.10 or less.

Weak upper level ridging then builds into the area and a surface
high slides across the OH valley, before moving to the east coast
Tuesday night. This results in dry weather for Tuesday. Rain chances
return by Wednesday as short wave energy moves northeast from a
western U.S. trough. Rain chances then continue until another cold
front moves through the area on Thursday. Dry weather will then
return Friday, though a few showers may linger in the east to start
the day.

Temperatures will remain above normal with only a very slight
cool down with the frontal passage on Sunday. Temperatures return
to close to normal values with the passage of the late week cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

Mainly VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance, with just some
isolated MVFR. Isolated showers were occurring. A healthy field
of cumulus clouds had developed over the region at mid day, and
with continued heating, some of these will develop into additional
showers. The showers may bring sub-VFR conditions, but otherwise,
restrictions are not anticipated this afternoon. For most
locations, the showers should diminish as sunset approaches. A
cold front moving in from the northwest may keep showers going
into the evening around I-64. Elsewhere, after an evening lull,
showers should redevelop during the night as the front moves
southeast and a disturbance also passes through. The frontal
passage and showers are expected to bring deteriorating conditions
tonight, with a fall to at least MVFR. The northern part of the
area is forecast to drop to IFR conditions around dawn. The poor
conditions should last through the morning.

Winds will be brisk and gusty out of the south to southwest this
afternoon, sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph for most
places. Winds should diminish toward sunset.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from midnight EST tonight through Sunday morning for
KYZ044-050>052.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...HAL



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