Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250550 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The forecast remains on track. Some local observations and a few
webcams are starting to reflect dropping visibilities. Mainly
freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points to align
better with the trends in observations.

UPDATE Issued at 1024 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

SOME PESKY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS
SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE FALL A BIT. WITH THAT SAID...OPTING TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE SPS AND HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY AS IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED AN UPGRADE LATER...BUT NOT
READY TO GO FOR IT AT THIS POINT WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. A
FEW VALLEYS LOCATIONS SUCH AS PAINTSVILLE AND QUICKSAND HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S ALREADY...SO DID DROP THE VALLEYS A FEW
MORE DEGREES TO AROUND 60. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE Issued at 818 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

We had some late day mixing that sent dewpoints down into the mid
60s for most of the area. This will put cross over temperatures
for fog tonight a bit lower than earlier anticipated. However,
with that said, based on the fact that some valley locations have
already fallen into the lower 70s this evening, opted to bump lows
downward, especially in the valleys. Thus, now we are looking at
low 60s for most valley locations. This should fall under the
lower cross over temperatures, but perhaps we may be dealing with
a more shallow dense fog layer, more confined to the valleys
tonight. Thus, have cut back on fog on the ridges and beefed up
the fog wording in the valleys. Guidance continues to hit fog hard
just about everywhere, but plan to hold off on any fog advisory
for now and see how temperatures respond in the next few hours. If
temperatures continue to drop off faster than expected, we may end
up cooler tonight and thus, a thicker fog layer and more of a need
for an advisory.  Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Surface analysis shows front still remains across portions of
northern and central KY this afternoon. Therefore we do remain in
a fairly warm and moist airmass this afternoon. Guidance shows a
reasonable inversion remaining in place and this seems to be
inhibiting any shower or storm development this afternoon. Also
low stratus hung in across a good portion of eastern KY though the
early afternoon. Did keep a isolated chance as some of the data
suggested some omega in the layer as a weak wave passes through.
What is left of the previously mentioned boundary is expected to
progress south of the region tonight, as a surface high builds
south and centers across the Mid Atlantic. The skies are expected
to clear tonight as CU looses the diurnal heating. These skies
will combine with low level moisture in place and inversion to
lead to patchy and eventually areas of dense fog. Therefore will
mention this in a HWO and hoist a SPS as well. In terms of models
both the GFS/NAM soundings have this thought and therefore
confidence is building.

Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights
as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across.
Therefore while the weak front drops south not much reprieve temp
wise will be seen across the region, as the models show 591
height building northeast. While we do remain dry the temps are
expected to climb into the upper 80s for Saturday. Saturday night
we see clear skies and potential for valley fog, while surface
high pressure skits the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

The upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern CONUS
for several days will finally start to break down on Sunday as a
strong upper level low drags a cold front towards the region. This
upper level low will track eastward along the US/Canadian border
Sunday and Monday before lifting into the Eastern Canadian
provinces. As this occurs, the trof will deepen and pass through the
OH Valley Wednesday while nudging the ridge westward. Weak ridging
will move into place on Wednesday before a quick moving shortwave
enters East Kentucky Thursday evening. Confidence is low regarding
this shortwave as the operational GFS and ECMWF differ in speed and
placement. Decided to stay close to a general blend of model
guidance in the late part of the period.

At the surface, moisture and precipitation chances will increase
Sunday as return flow sets up ahead of the approaching cold frontal
boundary. This boundary is progged to move through the region Sunday
night into Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely
along and ahead of the front during this time period. A few
additional showers may be possible Tuesday evening as the trof axis
passes by overhead. Cooler and drier air will then filter into
Kentucky by Wednesday dropping dew points down into the 50s. This
will feel much more comfortable than the past several days with 70
degree dew points. Dry weather will persist through Thursday morning
before a quick moving low moves into East Kentucky Thursday night,
bringing a chance for showers into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Fog will be the main concern through 13z. Visibilities will
gradually drop off, especially between 08 and 12z, with airport
minimums likely achieved across all of the TAF sites at some
point. KJKL will be more in question given its higher elevation;
however, think there is enough confidence to go with a small
window of LIFR or worse visibilities/ceilings between 11 and 13z.
The fog will burn off by 13z or just after, with VFR conditions
expected through the rest of the period, thanks to an upper level
ridge of high pressure building into the region. Winds will remain
light through the period as well.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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