Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210801

National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

Available shortly...

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

Fairly meridional pattern setting up through the long term period
that will lead to multiple chances of precip. The period does
begin with high pressure east of the region along the Mid Atlantic
coast Wednesday night. There will be a period where decoupling and
radiational cooling can occur early on before some mid to high
clouds stream into the region. After this high pushes east as an
upper level ridge will build across the region. This ridging the
return flow around the surface high will put us securely in the
warm sector by Thursday. This will lead spring like temperatures
through most of the period.

Then we focus attention on vertically stacked system ejecting out
of the Front Range Friday and moving into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Saturday into Sunday. There remains some timing
differences and therefore kept close to the blended guidance.
However did opt to cap POPs at likely given the timing uncertainty
at this point. Also in terms of storms it does look like we get
cutoff from better instability by convection along and near the
Gulf coast. This seems reasonable given this lines up well with
SPC severe probability climatology for this time of year. Overall
looks like QPE of around 0.75 inches is possible Saturday into
Sunday night. There could be a few showers Monday wrapping around
surface low, but ridging will build east ahead of next upper level


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

A cold front continues to sag south tonight and ceilings are
expected to lower into the MVFR range behind it form north to
south, at least briefly, during the first 6 hours of the period.
Convection is also possible along or south of a JKL to SJS line
with thunder also possible. The MVFR may linger in the north
through around 18Z though surface heating and mixing should lead
to an improvement to VFR in the south during the 12Z to 18Z
period. As high pressure builds into the area after 18Z
improvement to VFR in all locations should occur by 22Z. VFR
should then prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds
will average 10KT or less through the period.




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