Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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698
FXUS63 KJKL 270725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

The large upper level low currently over the western Great
Lakes region will gradually shift southward towards Kentucky
throughout the short term. Energy from this low is expected to
pivot into our area Wednesday afternoon, providing enough lift
for at least a chance for showers. Decided not to include mention
of thunder at this time due to model soundings showing very
limited instability.

In terms of sensible weather, today will finally feel like
autumn with a much drier airmass in place and seasonal
temperatures in the lower 70s. Patchy dense fog has developed
early this morning but should dissipate/lift around 13Z. Once the
fog dissipates, skies should remain mostly clear throughout the
day as the upper low stays far enough to our north. Tonight,
temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 40s before
rebounding into the low and mid 70s by tomorrow afternoon. As the
upper low approaches tomorrow afternoon, cloud cover and shower
chances will increase, with shower chances peaking in the
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

The models remain in decent agreement with the amplified and
blocky long wave pattern to dominate across the CONUS through the
majority of the period. An upper level low will drop south out of
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions through Friday, before
gradually shifting back to the north and diminishing through early
next week.

This will result in below normal temperatures and periods of
unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky through the first part
of the weekend. Dry weather and a gradual warm up will then ensue
as the low pulls away, and 500 mb heights recover.

The blended guidance came in very reasonable with the rain
chances through the period, so stuck close to the given values.
Sky cover did look on the high side, so dialed this back
somewhat. Also allowed for slightly warmer lows at night,
particularly when the system is closest to our area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Main concern during the early morning period is the potential for
fog development. Current thinking is that SME will be the main TAF
site to be affected due to earlier clearing and temperatures
already at saturation. Some fog is already being seen in the IR
fog channel just south of our border in TN and expect this to
spread northward as the clouds continue to push off to the east.
That being said, have introduced MVFR fog at SME but kept VFR fog
at LOZ and JKL through dawn. There is the potential for lower VIS
across the area but confidence remains marginal at this time. The
fog should lift by 13-14Z this morning and VFR conditions will
prevail with mainly clear skies. Winds will be light and variable
around 5 knots or less through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM



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