Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 152030

National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017

Quiet weather has settled over the area. Cold air advection is
ongoing as a surface ridge builds in from the west. The air mass
is dry enough that low level moisture has already eroded and left
mainly clear skies behind.

The clear skies will last into tonight, but will be interrupted
over the northeast part of the area. A jet streak rotating around
a large northeastern CONUS trough/upper low will bring an increase
in clouds late tonight, and lasting into Thursday morning. Models
do not indicate any precip with it locally, just a slight increase
in upslope precip further to our northeast. This feature departs
on Thursday, and clouds should be on the decrease in the
afternoon. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure ridging will
slip away to our east on Thursday. This results in the return of
warm air advection, which subsequently will support ridge/valley
temperature differences on Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017

The highlight of the long term portion of the forecast is
unseasonable warmth. In fact temperatures are forecast to average
close to 15 degrees above normal for the Friday through Wednesday
period. This will continue to help boost our 2016-2017 average
winter time temperature, and with above normal temperatures expected
to prevail through the end of February it is possible both Jackson
and London may experience their warmest December to February periods
on record. Average temperature for December 1, 2016 to February 14,
2017 has been 41.2 at Jackson and 41.1 at London. The warmest
December to February on record is 41.6 at Jackson in 2011-2012, and
41.5 at London in 1991-1992. Records at Jackson date back to 1981
and at London to 1954.

The forecast period begins with upper level ridging extending from
the southeast U.S. through the western Great Lakes. An upper level
low will move northeast from Texas and weaken as it moves through
the TN and OH valleys this weekend. There is good model agreement on
this scenario. This will result in a chance of rain mainly across
the southern and central parts of the area from Saturday into Sunday

As we move into next week upper level ridging from the Gulf of
Mexico into the Great Lakes will once again be the dominant feature.
Monday looks to be the warmest day of the period with maximum
temperatures around 70 Monday afternoon, or 20-25 degrees above
normal. Another upper low which will be over northern Mexico at the
start of the week will drift east northeast through midweek while a
weak short wave trough moves through the northern stream helping to
damp out the high amplitude ridging. As to be expected there is less
model agreement with the evolution of the overall upper air pattern
next week but at this point it appears that rain chances will return
Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday with mild temperatures


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

MVFR ceilings lingered near the TN and VA borders at TAF issuance.
These ceilings will rise and break up early this afternoon, and VFR
conditions will then prevail area wide through the end of the
period. Northwest winds gusting around 15 mph will diminish toward
evening, and then remain light through the end of the period.




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