Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 271409
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FEATURE A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS
TRAVELING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL NOTHING NOT MENTIONED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE ON TO
THE EAST WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MOST CURRENT OBS AND SENT TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ACTIVITY ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY MOVING ENE TOWARD EASTERN KY THIS MORNING.
HRRR HAS SOME CLUE ON THIS...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE QUITE ROBUST
IN SPOTS. THIS INITIAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WAVE AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
WESTERN KY THIS MORNING AND WILL PROGRESS EAST TODAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. GRIDS FINALIZED AND SENT TO
NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

OVERALL MODELS INITIALIZED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN QUITE WELL BASED
ON 00Z UA DATA. THIS MORNING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW BEGINNING TO
CUTOFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTING
THIS UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ANOTHER
WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WE REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOME CAM
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION DOES FIRE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE DID KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE A
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...0-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 40 KNOTS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND GIVEN THAT MANY
OF THE CAMS ARE MODEST...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS AT THIS
JUNCTURE. OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN IT/S WAKE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
BECOMES A BIT MORE CONFINED FURTHER NORTH. STILL...THIS WILL MEAN
A CONTINUED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...AS
SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...BEFORE TROUGHING AND PASSING SHORT WAVES TAKE OVER
THEREAFTER. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE
NEARBY...ADDING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH EVERYDAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WSR-88D RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NE INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST TODAY WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF CIGS TAFS SITES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR
TODAY BASED ON DOWN STREAM OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF STORMS AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE
WINDS COULD GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ


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