Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 272014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL



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