Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232001

National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

MCV crossing east Kentucky into West Virginia has really zapped
our instability today. We really don`t see much CU out there.
There is a dewpoint/ouflow boundary draped across our far south,
near Middlesboro, where instability is much higher to the south of
this boundary. This would likely be the best area to see
development this evening as dewpoints have remained in the mid to
upper 60s back to the north. Temperatures have also remained a bit
cooler today to the north. All of this together has really
weakened the threat of storms for much of the area. With this in
mind, have opted to drop the flash flood watch for the northern
counties. Best rain chances will remain in the south closer to
that boundary this evening. Should see activity diminish quickly
by mid to late evening with dry weather expected overnight. With
more clearing expected tonight, we could see a good deal of
valley fog tonight. The cold front to the north will drop south
tomorrow afternoon/evening and may allow a few showers or storms
to pop up along the boundary at that time. Instability is rather
weak, but given the middle of the afternoon, can`t rule out an
isolated storm. As the cold front sinks to the south tomorrow
evening, dry weather will be seen through Monday night. We may see
another round of valley fog Monday night pending cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

Long term discussion to follow shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Dying MCS has really zapped the daytime warming thus far and thus
will keep thunderstorm chances at bay until after 20 or 21z. It
looks like there will be a narrow window this evening for a few
storms. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions should dominate the TAF
period. If we can clear out late tonight, we could have to contend
with some valley fog, although no impacts are expected at the TAF




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