Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 091857
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO TRY TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
VERY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S ALONG I-64 BUT REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOG WILL THEN BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT. WHILE FOG
IS A GOOD BET OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...THE DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY LIMIT IT/S EXTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH TO MID 60S IN THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE
BORDER AS IT WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO THE
MID 80S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE TN/VA BORDER AND IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO WAYNE COUNTIES. BY SATURDAY
EVENING SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA...IT WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED AND WET
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY THIS TIME THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME
GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS THE COLD AIR AND THE UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE BLENDED TEMPERATURES LOOKED PRETTY
GOOD...HOWEVER DID NUDGE THE TEMPS TOWARD THE RAW ECMWF AND THEN MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TOPOGRAPHY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE
PRECIPITATION LATELY...PARTLY DUE TO THE DRY SPELL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION AT THE TAF SITES DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO DRIER AIR
TRYING TO ADVECT IN BUT PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING A PERIOD OF
LIFR CONDITIONS JUST PRIOR TO DAWN SEEMED PLAUSIBLE AND WAS
CONTINUED. WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD SLOWLY BURN OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...ABE



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