Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 131800 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

ONGOING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WARRANTED FRESHENING UP THE POP GRIDS
TO EXTEND MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS ADD IN MENTION OF DRIZZLE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EVENTUALLY EXPECT DRY AIR TO WORK IN
ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP. ALSO FRESHENED
UP THE NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...BUT THIS LED TO LITTLE CHANGES IN THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THESE PARAMETERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FRESHENED UP THE LATEST HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER TEMPERATURE RISE
WITH THE ONGOING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE STATIONARY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALIGNED FROM NORTHERN OHIO DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CHURNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH THE NEARBY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THE THROUGH AXIS PULLS FURTHER AWAY THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL...WILL
STAY ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE PATTERN.
CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING AN ONGOING FETCH OF
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE
NORTH...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES
PASSING ABOVE THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED ONE OF THE STRONGER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT A BIT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT CONCENTRATED BATCH OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK BRINGING SOME BRIEF RESURGENCE TO THE TROUGH.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT DOES START TO BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS ERASING THE TROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF IN RESPONSE
TO STRONGER TROUGHING BUILDING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.
SLIGHT RIDGING THEN FOLLOWS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME QUESTION CONCERNING THE STABILITY OF THE
DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THAT ALSO CASTS DOUBT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS...HAVE FAVORED A MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER HEADS THIS WAY
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EAST KENTUCKY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL PRESS SOUTH DEEPER
INTO KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A LIKELY DRY FRONT AT
ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS HIGH THEN DRIFTS TO THE EAST BEFORE STARTING
TO MODERATE LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH NONE OF
THESE HIGHS WILL PARK DIRECTLY OVER EAST KENTUCKY...THEY SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY THREAT OF SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD MORE OF A DIURNAL
TREND EACH DAY AND ALSO TO GO A BIT DRIER LATTER IN THE PERIOD. DID
TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT SOME
MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

IFR TO MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY AS A UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF DRYING
ARE NOW STARTING TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO VFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...FIRST AT KSYM AND THEN LAST AT KSJS. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING INTO THE REGION...DON/T EXPECT FOG OR DRIZZLE TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE TONIGHT. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT THE POTENTIAL
OF A LOW STRATUS DECK SETTING UP IF NOTHING ELSE...BUT EVEN
THEN...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED. AS SUCH...ONLY MENTIONED SCT
MVFR DECK AT THIS TIME BETWEEN 3 AND 14Z. BY TOMORROW...DRY AIR WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES...WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN VFR CU CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN CONDITIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW



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