Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 102055 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO OUR EXTENDED TIME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ABOVE THE COLD SFC
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LED TO SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGERED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FROM JKL ON EAST. THE SNOW
ADVISORIES WERE KEPT IN PLACE THROUGH 6 PM IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA WHILE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE...ON PACE TO SET A
RECORD FOR A MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE HERE AT JKL. MEANWHILE...
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS AS WINDS
CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ADDING TO THE
CHILL.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH AND
RETREATS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE
KENTUCKY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK BATCH OF ENERGY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR
FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AND COMING TO AN END INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR
A CHILLY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES BY DAWN WITH ONLY A LIMITED DIFFERENCE ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES. SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS
WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING ON THURSDAY BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BY DAWN FRIDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SOME TERRAIN/SNOW DEPTH DIFFERENCES BOTH
NIGHTS. AS FOR POPS...WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY FROM JKL
EAST. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BRING VIS TO LIFR AND ALONG WITH IFR CIGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD BE MORE INFREQUENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY 00Z. THE
LAST REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 06Z
TONIGHT WITH ANY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS BREAKING UP TOWARDS DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-
088-104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF


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