Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191652 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1252 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Thunderstorms are expected with the encroachment of a cold front this afternoon.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The early afternoon update featured further adjustments to near term POPs as per the latest radar and high res model trends. Insolation in the wake of morning clouds and weak convection is destabilizing the Upper Ohio airspace under an encroaching upper trough. Given the available boundary layer moisture with that warming, convective redevelopment along the associated weak surface reflection/reinforcing front emerging off the Great Lakes is likely. A slight severe risk/SPC -15%, was included in the HWO with pockets of dry aloft expected to enhance the severe potentail from marginal mid level flow and overall shear within the thermal trough. Showers and storms are projected to exit with the supporting shortwave early this evening. Precip. probabilities for the scenario were reconstructed using consensus-short blended guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Building high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned system will result in a dry and seasonable Sunday with slightly lower dewpoints/humidity. Warm, moist advection with flat ridging in advance of a midwestern shortwave as per the latest model solutions indicate increased humidity with a rapid temperature moderation above the averages for Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The aforementioned midwest trough/associated front are likely to provide the next precip chance by Tuesday. Eastern CONUS troughing is then forecast to support temperatures a few degrees under the averages for the remainder of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase through the afternoon with the approach and passage of a shortwave trough. Will maintain a VCTS/tempo TS mention in the tafs. VFR should return by evening under building high pressure. Surface flow will generally remain from the west at 10kts with occasional gusts to 15kts. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early Wed cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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