Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 272346
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR to IFR ceilings in place across NE OK and western AR are
the short term focus and this forecast has trended more
pessimistic with little to no improvement in ceilings expected
across far NW AR. Patchy fog is also possible late tonight
with ceilings then gradually rising by mid to late morning
with high MVFR to low VFR ceilings prevailing by afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/
Clouds continue to linger this afternoon across much of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the wake of the cold front and
associated upper level low that brought showers and thunderstorms
to the area yesterday into this morning. These clouds are expected
to continue to erode through the evening hours. Could see the clouds
fill back in or see some fog later tonight into Tuesday morning.
Our attention will then turn to the next storm system that is set to
affect the region. The next upper level low to affect the region will
be over Arizona as day breaks on Tuesday and will slowly eject out
across the plains Wednesday into Thursday morning. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Oklahoma Tuesday
afternoon and move into the eastern part of the state Tuesday evening/night.
The severe potential will continue with these storms into the overnight
hours as the elevated instabilities become favorable as the low level
jet strengthens. Large hail and strong gusty winds will be the concern.
The threat for thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday as the upper level
low and attendant surface system moves across the area. With more than adequate
instability and deep layer shear, the threat for severe weather will continue.
Tornadoes, Large hail and damaging winds will all be possible on Wednesday
afternoon and evening across a good portion of the area. Heavy rain will also
become a concern during this event with 2 to 3 inches possible. The showers
and thunderstorms end on Thursday as the system departs.
The active weather pattern continues with shower and thunderstorm chances returning
over the weekend as the next storm system moves through the region.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 48 74 60 75 / 10 10 80 80
FSM 49 76 60 74 / 0 10 40 80
MLC 49 77 63 75 / 10 10 70 80
BVO 44 72 57 74 / 0 10 80 80
FYV 45 72 58 71 / 0 10 40 80
BYV 47 69 55 69 / 0 10 40 70
MKO 47 76 62 73 / 10 10 60 80
MIO 45 72 58 70 / 10 10 70 80
F10 48 75 61 76 / 10 10 80 80
HHW 52 76 63 77 / 10 10 60 80