Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 061749
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STRATO CU 2-3 THSD FT LIFTING ABOVE 3 THSD FEET AND BECOMING
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDER MOVING INTO NE OK
SITES KBVO KTUL KRVS BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z TONIGHT WITH LOWERING
CONDITIONS. SHOWER THUNDER AREA SLOW PROGRESSION EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO NW AR TAF SITES LATE NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. TAF SITES
KBVO KTUL KRVS MOST VULNERABLE FOR RAIN/THUNDER LATE NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE UPDATED FORECAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
PERSISTING AWHILE LONGER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS EXCEPT FOR BVO/TUL/RVS. THESE CIGS WILL LIFT DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT AT LEAST BVO TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...AND PERHAPS TUL/RVS AS WELL. MVFR...AND LIKELY PERIODS OF
IFR...CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN TSRA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NW AR TERMINALS
AND POSSIBLY BVO AS WELL...BUT PROBABILITY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY TODAY...THOUGH VERY HUMID WITH A
PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE
GULF. THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE PRESSURES RISE
IN ITS WAKE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF RAIN/STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS
AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. THE LATEST DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND RIDE UP THE STALLED FRONT...BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SAME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE FIRST ROUND
WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS...TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS...FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARM ADVECTION STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RETREATING WARM FRONT BEFORE
THINGS TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR
REGION. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS WE RETURN TO A NW FLOW PATTERN WITH ANOTHER FRONT
SLATED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  80  69 /  10  70  80  80
FSM   90  75  88  73 /  20  10  40  50
MLC   89  75  84  73 /  10  20  50  50
BVO   92  70  77  66 /  10  80  80  80
FYV   86  72  80  70 /  20  20  70  60
BYV   87  72  80  70 /  20  20  70  60
MKO   89  74  82  71 /  10  30  80  60
MIO   91  70  78  67 /  20  80  80  80
F10   89  74  81  70 /  10  40  70  70
HHW   91  75  89  74 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ054>067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21


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