Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 180533
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1133 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 06Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
In the near term, the main concern will be valley fog at the W AR
sites. As expected, dense fog has developed at FYV, and is
expected to eventually develop at FSM. XNA is also experiencing
some fog. These sites will see IFR or sub-IFR conditions thru
around 13Z. Low level moisture return will result in IFR cigs at
MLC by around dawn, which should continue into the afternoon
before going MVFR. In a change from the previous forecast, trends
suggest that MVFR cigs will lift north into NE OK sites as soon as
18Z, and may scatter out briefly during the afternoon. Strong
gusty S winds will prevail on Sunday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 934 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over
Arkansas this evening with light and variable wind across much of
our forecast area. Deepening trough through the Plains will
result in veering low level wind overnight then strong southerly
wind Sunday. Valley fog has already resulted in variable
visibilities across portions of wrn AR this evening, which will
likely continue overnight. Low clouds should develop into sern
Oklahoma late tonight, and then across portions of central/nern OK
Sunday. Rain chances still look to return late Sunday/Sunday
night with widespread activity Monday-Tuesday. Ongoing forecast is
trending well this evening and no changes needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 534 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 00Z TAF forecast can be found below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The latest HRRR is hinting at the potential for some valley fog at
FSM tonight. Since FYV is prone to valley fog as well, especially
after the recent rain event, have inserted tempo groups at both
sites for IFR fog around midnight into the early morning hours.
Increasing high cloud overcast and south to southeast winds
should lead to its demise Sunday morning. The HRRR also suggests
that the initial northwestward surge of low clouds/moisture will
miss our area to our west initially on Sunday. Given some
uncertainty, few to sct low cloud groups were maintained in the E
OK TAFs. VFR conditions will prevail for the most part on Sunday,
with potential for low end VFR cigs by the end of the day. Strong,
gusty S winds will also prevail on Sunday.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A rather unsettled weather pattern will prevail over the next
week, with several rounds of much needed rainfall expected.
Despite the overnight rainfall, fire danger will be a concern
Sunday as gusty southerly winds develop, and temperatures warm
into the 60s. Low level moisture will rapidly return north Sunday
afternoon and evening, and scattered elevated convection may
develop overnight Sunday night and persist into Monday evening.

The most widespread and heaviest rainfall is expected late Monday
night and Tuesday as a strong cold front drops south across the
area. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible,
but locally heavy rainfall looks to be the main concern.

Some drier air will work into parts of northeast Oklahoma Tuesday
night, but an upper level disturbance will spread light
precipitation back over the area during the day Wednesday. Surface
temperatures will likely remain below freezing across the northern
part of the forecast area, so the precipitation will fall as light
freezing rain in that area.

A warming trend will develop Thursday and last into the weekend,
but unsettled weather will continue, with rain chances returning
Thursday night into the weekend.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  63  57  71 /   0   0  40  50
FSM   34  62  54  71 /   0   0  40  50
MLC   36  63  58  70 /   0  10  40  50
BVO   29  64  55  73 /   0   0  40  50
FYV   28  59  53  67 /   0   0  40  50
BYV   31  60  52  68 /   0   0  40  50
MKO   35  63  56  70 /   0   0  40  50
MIO   32  62  54  69 /   0   0  40  50
F10   36  63  57  70 /   0   0  40  50
HHW   38  62  56  72 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....30



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