Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 020208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 02Z...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NWRN OK THEN NEWRD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS MO. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS ALONG
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY OVER MO AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
PROPAGATES SEWRD OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTED
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON
LEADING FLANK OF SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORMS...BELIEVE THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NERN OK AND NWRN AR
TONIGHT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING WRN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CARROLL/MADISON COUNTIES IN NWRN AR. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69


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