Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 132107
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon water vapor imagery detected a digging upper low off the
southern CA...with deep southwesterly flow transporting abundant
Pacific moisture into the southern Plains. This moisture along
with broad low-level warm air advection has resulted in periods of
light freezing rain/drizzle throughout the afternoon...with the
main impacts across northeast OK. The precipitation has shown a
convective nature at times...with a few lightning strikes noted
with the batch of freezing rain currently moving through western
Osage county.

The freezing line hasn`t budged much today...and currently
extends from extreme NE OK...through the middle of Tulsa county to
south of the OKC metro. While the GFS has finally trended
colder...the ECMWF and higher-res NAM models continue to have a
better handle on the low-level temperatures as were once again
followed very closely for this forecast.

Regional radars are showing an area of expanding precipitation
across southern OK/northern TX this afternoon...with this activity
will continue to lift north through the evening and overnight.
With the freezing line expected to remain nearly quasi-stationary
overnight...the most favored area for additional ice accumulation
will continue to be along and north of I-44. Will not make any
changes to the current Ice Storm warning and Freezing Rain
advisory...although there are some indications (read ECMWF
solution) that northern parts of Creek county and western and
northern sections of Tulsa county could approach warning
criteria. I just don`t have the confidence to upgrade at this
time...and will allow the evening crew to further monitor.

The freezing line is expected to retreat a bit northwest on
Saturday...although areas northwest of I-44 should remain right at
the 32F mark. Additional significant icing should extend into
Saturday night in these areas...with the overall heaviest amounts
across western Pawnee into western and central Osage counties
where local ice totals around a half to three-quarters of an inch
will be possible.

The freezing line will lift rapidly north of the area by early
Sunday...in advance of an approaching upper level low. Much higher
dewpoints will overspread the region...with a large band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the forecast
area Sunday evening into Monday as the upper low ejects northeast.
While an isolated severe storm can`t be ruled out...locally heavy
rainfall will be the main concern with this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  34  33  53 /  80  80  70  40
FSM   44  49  47  61 /  70  60  50  40
MLC   37  44  40  60 /  70  50  50  30
BVO   30  33  32  52 /  70  80  80  40
FYV   41  46  44  57 /  80  70  60  40
BYV   37  43  40  53 /  80  80  60  40
MKO   36  40  40  57 /  80  70  60  30
MIO   32  34  34  54 /  80  80  80  30
F10   34  37  36  56 /  80  80  60  40
HHW   49  57  52  65 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Saturday for OKZ058-060-
     061-064-065.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ054>057-059.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18


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