Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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994
FXUS64 KTSA 210145
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
845 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A quiet and chilly overnight is on deck for eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Clouds persisting across portions of far eastern
Oklahoma and points east will likely move completely out of the
region around midnight, with clear skies areawide thereafter. With
winds dropping off as well, temperatures will drop into the 40s
across a majority of the region, with only parts of far southeast
Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley being slightly warmer. Only
concern overnight is some fog potential given the good radiating
conditions and the wet soils. Have elected to not include any fog
in the forecast given the weak signal in the available guidance,
but will pass along concerns to the next shift. Updates, featuring
very minor tweaks to low temperatures and the sky cover trends,
already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 655 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers/low clouds starting to shift east of NW AR TAF sites early
this evening. Surface high pressure will build into the region
tonight with light and variable winds into Sunday. Low level winds
should remain high enough to limit dense fog development
overnight, however this will continue to be monitored.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Overall a much quieter week coming up compared to this past week.

A cold front in association with the upper low lifting northeast
over the Plains will continue to sweep east across western
Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and into the
evening. A few showers and possibly a storm could develop ahead of
the front this afternoon, but precip chances will be better just
east of the forecast area and should be well east by evening.
Clearing skies and calming winds with surface high pressure
building into the region will lead to a cool night tonight. Some
fog is possible mainly in the valleys, mainly due to the recent
rains, but the overall scenario doesn`t appear to be favorable for
fog.

A deep shortwave trough is forecast to develop over the Plains as
energy dives south out of Canada on the backside of today`s
ejecting upper low. Lift in association with the wave, including
induced warm advection from the south and west, will bring shower
and thunderstorm chances Monday night and Tuesday. Instability
will be limited due to the fact that the true warm sector will
still be suppressed well to the south along a stalled frontal
boundary over central TX. As a result, severe weather potential is
too low to mention. The reinforcing cool front with this system
will bring below average high temps on Wednesday and another
rather cool night Wednesday night.

Ridging will build over the Plains in the wake of the deep upper
trough as it slides east. This will lead to a quick warm-up to
close out the week. The ridge slides east by the weekend with a SW
flow spreading back over the Plains. Depending on how the surface
features set up, there could be some potential for storms again at
some point during the Memorial Day weekend.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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