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292
FXUS64 KTSA 152334
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Heavy thunderstorms are affecting KTUL/KRVS currently, and latest
radar trends indicate that KBVO should stay north of the strongest
activity. Outflow boundary has outrun the main convective line,
which will lower the threat for strong winds. Storms should
affect KMLC later this evening. Some of the weakening activity may
make it into far NW Arkansas this evening, but most of it will be
north of those terminals. Short term guidance would suggest
another round of storms is possible after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Messy forecast over the next few days, with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, including some continued heavy rain
potential, through at least the end of this week.

Immediate concern is the developing area of showers and
thunderstorms near the I-35 corridor across central and northern
Oklahoma. This convection should continue to increase as a mid
level wave moves to the northeast across northern Oklahoma and
into southern Kansas this evening. Instability is higher across
northeast Oklahoma than in areas near I-35, per current
mesoanalysis, which should lead to an increase in the intensity as
the showers/storms push eastward. At the very least, the stronger
storms should pose a locally heavy rain threat, with at least some
potential for hail and strong winds as well. Most the afternoon
and evening storms should be north of the Kansas and Missouri
borders by midnight.

There should be a lull in the shower and storm activity across
most of the forecast area through much of tomorrow morning, but
chances should increase once again during the afternoon and
definitely by evening as a stronger upper level disturbance and an
associated front approach the region. These storms may pose a
greater threat of severe weather, given the stronger wind fields,
in conjunction with high instability. The aforementioned front
will push through the forecast area Thursday, moving the
thunderstorm potential with it to the southeast.

Yet another disturbance will approach from the west late Thursday
night and into Friday, with an accordant increase in the
thunderstorm potential, generally from southwest to northeast.

Things may finally dry out somewhat during the weekend, with
thunderstorm potential likely limited to diurnal afternoon
development by early next week. Upper level high pressure will
build into the forecast area next week, which should bring a
return to more seasonal temperatures by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  89  72  90 /  90  60  60  10
FSM   77  92  77  90 /  40  30  50  50
MLC   76  88  75  90 /  50  30  50  40
BVO   73  91  71  88 /  50  60  60  10
FYV   72  86  73  86 /  50  40  50  40
BYV   73  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  40
MKO   77  88  74  89 /  80  50  60  30
MIO   74  90  70  87 /  60  60  60  10
F10   76  88  73  89 /  80  50  60  20
HHW   76  91  76  91 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ066-067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
AVIATION...06

CORFIDI