983
FXUS64 KTSA 251718
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2025

   - Hot and humid conditions will prevail for the next week with daily
     heat indices of 95-105 F across the area.

   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms likely much of
     this week.

   - Storm coverage may increase early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Surface high continues across the Deep South with southerly low
level flow over the CWA. Area remains on the edge of summertime
high pressure ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley. Isolated,
diurnal convection expected south of I-44 this afternoon in
moderately unstable airmass. Weak deep layer shear will promote
strong downdrafts with more robust updrafts. Will need to monitor
high temperatures as some locations yesterday exceeded forecast
values by a couple of degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Conditions today will largely mimic what we saw yesterday.
Seasonable temperatures and humidity will yield HI in the 90s to
around 100 degrees in most locations. Isolated, largely terrain-
driven convection is expected once again, perhaps with slightly
greater coverage and a bit farther to the west. Again though,
most locations remain dry, and any storms will dissipate quickly
after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Subtle pattern shift Thursday and Friday will focus storm chances
more toward areas near the OK/KS border as some flattening of the
ridge occurs. This may allow some influence of the large plume of
subtropical Pacific moisture over the high plains to push farther
southeast. By early next week a series of waves moving across the
northern sates may push a backdoor cold front toward our region
with the net result being higher precip chances.

Temperature-wise, conditions will not change much the next few
days, possibly trending up slightly this weekend but remaining
below heat advisory levels in all likelihood. The arrival of the
backdoor front may cool things down a tad next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southerly
winds will be gusty this afternoon then diminish with sunset.
Winds on Thu expected to be lighter as surface gradient weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  74  91  75 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   95  74  94  74 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   91  72  91  71 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   91  72  91  72 /  20   0  10   0
BYV   92  72  91  72 /  20   0  10   0
MKO   90  72  90  73 /  20   0  10   0
MIO   90  72  90  72 /  20  10  10  10
F10   90  72  89  73 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   89  72  90  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24