Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 190201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
901 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016


Today`s frontal boundary has pushed through about two-thirds of
the forecast area before becoming largely stationary along a line
from just south of McAlester to near Poteau to north of Fort
Smith. This front will make some northward progress overnight, but
likely remaining south of Interstate 44, as low level warm
advection increases some in advance of the approaching upper level
disturbance. Isolated showers or thunderstorms remains possible
toward daybreak especially across northwest Arkansas in response
to the warm advection.

A few changes were made to the previously forecast low
temperatures, mainly to lower values north of Interstate 44, given
current dew points. Additional changes were made to increase Sky
cover, with tweaks to other elements according to observational
trends. Updates already out.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 639 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

MVFR or lower conditions are expected to develop late tonight as
low clouds and fog overspread the area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon, and may affect the
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites. Conditions may
improve to VFR in some places Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

A cold front was positioned from Southwest Texas through East
Central Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas and extended northeast
through the Midwest and the Great Lakes Region this afternoon.
This boundary had become nearly stationary across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas with northerly winds and drier air behind
the front and southerly winds...higher dewpoints and scattered
cloud cover ahead of the front.

This evening the cold front looks to drift a bit further southeast
into Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas before retreating
back northwestward into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight. At the
same time upper level shortwave currently moving
across the Inter-Mountain expected to continue to shift
eastward into the lee of the Rocky Mountains Wednesday morning. In
response increasing 20-40KT LLJ along the front over
an expanding area of warm advection will allow for a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms mainly within the higher terrain
locations of far Northwest Arkansas into far Northeast Oklahoma.
Temperatures tonight should also remain warm...60s...for much of
the CWA with 50s possible north of the boundary...mainly northwest
of Interstate 44.

The upper level shortwave is forecast to move into the Plains
Wednesday which should kick start the cold front to push
southeastward through the CWA. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase through the day with likely chances over Southeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night as the trof axis of the shortwave moves into the region.
Above seasonal average temperatures ahead of the front along with
developing instability over the region could create a few strong
to marginally severe storms during the afternoon and evening
hours. The greater potential for this looks to be over Northwest
Arkansas into Southeast Oklahoma.

The cold front exits the CWA Wednesday night with the majority of
the precip tapering off from northwest to southeast late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning ahead of the exiting trof axis.
Behind the departing trof axis Thursday...breezy northerly winds
and much cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s/low 70s are
forecast for the CWA. The cooler airmass should remain over the
region Friday and into Saturday before heights begin to rise with
a building ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains. This
will help to begin a warming trend with temperatures back in the
80s Sunday into early next week.




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