Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301707 AAB
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
OVERALL LOW CHANCES AND EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE
MENTIONING IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MADE A RUN AT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE RAISED POPS IN REACTION TO THIS
FROM ABOUT TULSA NORTHWESTWARD. CURRENTLY... EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF PRECIP SEEMS TO BE COMING TO A HALT... IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
HRRR AND RUC MODELS. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING RAPIDLY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS WELL... CONFIRMING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED ITS EASTWARD LIMIT.
THAT SAID... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RACING EASTWARD ACROSS OSAGE
AND PAWNEE COUNTIES... WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INIATE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL JUSTIFY LEAVING THE HIGHER POPS IN
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY IMPACT BVO/TUL/RVS LATER THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE AT NERN OK SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
MLC/FSM AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
TSRA...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INTO ERN OK THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN OK. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE FLIRTED WITH ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL FOREGO AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN MARGINAL VALUES EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE SHORT DURATION.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER WEST BY LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MOST CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL AN WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. UPPER HIGH TO
REMAINED POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES NOTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND PER THE
GFS. LATER IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS AS
WAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WEAK NW FLOW. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS OBSERVED THE LAST WEEK GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06


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