Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE NEB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS PD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL
HI PLAINS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY HAS A SPLIT FLOW LOOK
IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF WAVES ARE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW BENEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
TODAY...AND ANOTHER IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. A HIGH LVL
MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
NEAR FORECAST READINGS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW IN A WEAKENING STATE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR AREA.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR FOG AT KFYV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE ARKLATX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR-MASS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND LARGE
UPPER HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INTO WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL
NUMERIC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  72  53  77 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   48  72  50  76 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   48  72  52  77 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   40  73  52  77 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   42  69  45  74 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   44  67  49  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   46  71  51  76 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   43  70  50  74 /   0   0  20  20
F10   47  72  52  78 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   49  72  51  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...30




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