822
FXUS64 KTSA 280104
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
804 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next week with
     heat indices of 95-102 F across the area.

   - Daily scattered showers and storms expected much of the next
     week with locally heavy rains and downburst winds the primary
     hazards.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The overall theme of the previous forecast remains intact, with
scattered thunderstorms continuing across much of the area and at
least some coverage likely to continue through the evening and
into early Saturday morning. The only real change to the going
forecast has been to adjust POPs slightly using the short-term
blend to indicate a relative minimum in coverage late evening
prior to another likely increase after midnight. Strong storms,
producing wind gusts 40 to 50 mph, will remain possible,
especially along and south of I-40 where the environment is
largely undisturbed and downdraft CAPE is highest. Locally heavy
rainfall remains a concern as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered storms ongoing this afternoon are likely to persist
well into the evening. Strong instability is in place along and
south of Interstate 44 with steep low level lapse rates and deep
moist profiles. Wet downbursts are likely with the strongest
storms. Slow storm motions and intense rainfall rates will allow
for locally heavy rains. Uncertainty remain in how long into the
overnight hours storms can continue to develop but the moist
profiles with minimal overnight capping may allow storms to
persist into the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Near persistent pattern continues Saturday and Sunday with the
plume of deep moisture remaining across the local area supporting
good coverage of afternoon showers and storms. Expect daily heat
index values to remain near seasonal normals.

Weak cold front may move into the region on Monday and pushing
slowly southward through Tuesday. The front would mark a focused
corridor of higher showers and storms and may usher in slightly
drier air across northern locations but this scenario remains
uncertain. The pattern shows no large changes through late next
week and the forecast will continue with daily shower and
thunderstorm chances with temperatures near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Thunderstorm impacts for the first few hours of the valid TAF
period should be limited to the W AR sites and MLC, with more
quiescent conditions at the NE OK terminals for at least a few
hours. The expectation is for a further expansion in thunderstorm
potential early Saturday morning, likely in the predawn hours,
that may impact the E OK sites, spreading eastward after dawn into
the W AR terminals. TEMPO and PROB30 groups have been structured
temporally around this general idea at each site. Southerly wind
gusts tomorrow afternoon will be most likely at the NE OK sites,
although they should remain around 20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  91  76  94 /  40  40  20  20
FSM   74  91  74  95 /  30  50  10  40
MLC   73  91  75  93 /  30  30   0  20
BVO   70  90  72  93 /  40  40  30  30
FYV   71  87  72  91 /  40  60  20  50
BYV   71  86  71  91 /  30  60  20  60
MKO   73  88  74  92 /  40  50  10  30
MIO   71  88  72  92 /  30  50  30  50
F10   72  90  74  92 /  40  40  10  20
HHW   73  90  73  92 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22