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000
FXUS64 KTSA 012342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
DRIER AIR IS TEMPORARILY WORKING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO
CONDITIONS AT KBVO...KTUL AND KRVS WILL LIKELY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
BACK IN TOWARDS MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT FOG FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SLOWLY RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DECENT WARM
UP EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVER-
RUNNING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING/LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION COULD
INITIALLY BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE...THEN SNOW...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS SE OK/NW AR...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05