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176
FXUS64 KTSA 191527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1027 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon for most of
eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, as both temp and dew
points are running a few degrees higher than this time yesterday.
Precipitable water values are also a bit higher across the area,
which decreases confidence in lower dew points mixing this
afternoon. Given these trends, would anticipate many locations
will see HI top out between 105 and 108, with exception of
normally cooler areas of northwest AR and extreme northeast OK,
along with some areas west of U.S. 75 where high-res guidance
remains more bullish with lower dew points later this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 544 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue at all sites through the forecast
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure continued to be the main feature across the Southern
Plains this morning with mostly clear skies and light winds
observed over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. In
response...hot and humid conditions are expected again today.
Slightly more cloud cover south of Interstate 40 could also be
possible this afternoon which may create a non zero potential of
an isolated thunderstorm within the higher terrain locations.
However...with such isolated coverage expected will continue to
keep pops below mentionable criteria.

Low level flow is forecast to again be south to south- southeast
this afternoon which could help to keep temps from getting out of
control then if there was more of a southwesterly component to
the flow. Thus...high temps close to or a degree or so warmer
compared to yesterday is forecast this afternoon. Depending on
just how much mixing occurs with the southerly flow today will
determine just how high heat index values climb this afternoon.
Current thinking is that indices should be in the mid 90 to near
105 degree range...with the potential of some isolated
periods/locations of 105+. Thus...will hold off on any headlines
at this time with the day shift monitoring conditions for any
changes.

Heat and humidity underneath high pressure is expected to remain
common through the rest of the week with forecast temperatures in
the mid 90s to around 100+ possible by the end of the work week.
Thus...with these conditions...heat headlines will likely be
needed tomorrow...Friday and possibly into Saturday.

Late in the weekend and into the first part of next
week...thunderstorm chances return as the ridge of high pressure
flattens allowing for a shortwave to possibly drop out of Canada
into the Great Lakes region. A trailing frontal boundary is
progged to sag southward toward the CWA Sunday night/Monday and
retreat to the northeast Tuesday. Latest model solutions differ on
the details on just how far south the boundary gets and will thus
continue with small chance pops Sunday night through Tuesday.
Temperatures during this time look to be more closer/slight below
the seasonal average which is welcomed for late July.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  77  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   96  76  98  76 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   95  74  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
BVO   97  70  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   91  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   93  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   95  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  72  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   96  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   95  74  96  74 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12