Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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849
FXUS64 KTSA 081114
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
514 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
NW surface winds will increase today at all sites...with the
strongest gusts expected across the NE OK and NW AR site where
30-35 kt gusts can be expect through the afternoon. Winds will
begin to lessen during the last half of the TAF period.
Otherwise...VFR elements will prevail at all sites through the
entire period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong winds will prevail across the forecast area today w/
regional VWP data sampling 30-40kts currently which will be tapped
with expected mixing heights. The result will be 35 to 45 mph
gusts across eastern OK and possibly 30 to 40 mph gusts across
western AR. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than recent
days...however humidities will remain low as dewpoints
fall...with the resultant conditions being supportive of rapid
spread to any wildfires today. Areas of low clouds will pass
across far NE OK and far NW AR today with a few sprinkles
possible...otherwise clear skies will prevail for several days to
come beneath a very dry northwesterly flow pattern.

The forecast remains consistent in keeping the area between much
colder air to the north and east...and much warmer air to the
southwest. Also remaining consistent is the large spread in
potential temperatures...however confidence has increased somewhat
in supporting above normal temperatures for mid to late week.
Latest data also suggestive a stronger and more westward surge for
the cold air by next weekend...however uncertainty in this time
frame is very large within ensemble data. Dry weather is expected
to prevail until possibly late in the weekend...and even this
potential has decreased with the latest guidance.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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