Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 300444
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 820 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

Overall, forecast appears to be on track with just a few minor
tweaks to temperatures overnight. A bit of sky cover was also added
across the far western CWA as high clouds rounding the ridge make
their way into the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Expansive upper cyclone continues to wobble across the Ohio Valley
with a surface ridge poking through the Plains. The result has
been a pleasantly cool day...with low dewpoints and only a few
weak Cu in the cyclonic flow aloft. The upper system is expected
to remain quasi-stationary over the next 24-36 hours before
finally kicking north then east as the next system approaches the
west coast.

We`ll see another cool start to the day on Friday...with lows in
the 40s/low 50s. Expect a modest warming trend through the
remainder of the weekend...although dewpoints will remain low.

The aforementioned upper system will move onshore Sunday and
advance into the Rockies by Tuesday. Extended models continue to
differ in how much southern stream energy will eject
east...although latest GFS is coming around to the farther north
and more progressive solution of the ECMWF. Low-level moisture
will be on the increase by Tuesday and expect scattered convection
to move through the region later Tuesday night into Wednesday
before shifting east Wednesday evening.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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