Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011135
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  82  53 /  20  60  70  10
FSM   88  71  85  58 /  10  20  80  50
MLC   88  73  86  56 /  10  30  70  10
BVO   88  69  81  52 /  30  60  70  10
FYV   84  69  81  53 /  10  30  80  40
BYV   84  68  81  54 /  20  30  80  60
MKO   88  71  84  54 /  20  50  80  20
MIO   87  69  81  52 /  40  60  80  20
F10   88  71  84  55 /  20  40  70  10
HHW   86  72  88  58 /  10  20  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





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