Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered to overcast varying MVFR-VFR ceilings should lift to all
VFR conditions over the next few hours as the cloud cover from the
remnants of tropical system Cindy lift north northeast. Overnight
tonight...broken to overcast VFR conditions look to fall back to
MVFR conditions...especially across parts of Northwest Arkansas. A
cold front is forecast to push south into the region starting
around 12z Friday morning with MVFR conditions and precip chances
with the front. Have introduced prob30 groups for Northeast
Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas for precip timing. Greater
precip potential for TAF sites FSM/MLC look to be just outside of
the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1015 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Tropical depression Cindy continues to make its way northward
this morning with scattered to overcast low and mid level cloud
decks across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A few areas
of light drizzle had pushed into parts of Southeast Oklahoma and
Western Arkansas though had dissipated fairly quickly.

Through this afternoon...the remnants of Cindy are expected to
begin its northeastward turn and approach Southern Arkansas. This
track should continue to keep the majority of the precip east of
the CWA with small rain and isolated thunder chances mainly over
parts of Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Severe
weather is not anticipated.

Broken/overcast cloud cover over Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas today should help to keep temps slightly cooler this
afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 80s forecast. More scattered
cloud cover for Northeast Oklahoma will allow for low 90s to be
possible. Low level moisture from Cindy over the region combined
with upper 80/low 90 afternoon temps will create heat indices in
the mid/upper 90s mainly over Northeast Oklahoma.

Overall the ongoing forecast seems to be in good shape at this
time. Have added minor tweaks to temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids
based on current trends/observations for the morning update.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  85  62  85 /   0  40  10   0
FSM   74  88  66  86 /  10  50  20  10
MLC   72  89  65  82 /   0  40  30  20
BVO   70  83  59  84 /  10  40  10   0
FYV   69  82  60  82 /  10  40  10   0
BYV   70  81  60  82 /  10  40  10   0
MKO   72  86  63  84 /   0  40  20   0
MIO   70  84  59  83 /  10  40  10   0
F10   72  86  63  83 /   0  40  20  10
HHW   74  92  69  82 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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