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000
FXUS64 KTSA 150205
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

IT IS A QUIET EVENING OUT THERE. WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF AND THE
FIRE DANGER HAS COME DOWN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR TUSCON AZ.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. NO REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR
THIS EVENING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY SATURDAY... LIKELY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT LIQUID RAINFALL EVENT IN SEVERAL MONTHS WILL
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND DISSIPATING SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER TEXAS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THEN TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT ELEVATED STORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME SMALL HAIL IN OUR
AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO ARKANSAS...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS SUNDAY. THE MUCH STRONGER AND THUS
COLDER NAM HAS BEEN DISCARDED FOR THIS FORECAST AS ALL OTHER
MODELS AGREE ON A WEAKER...WARMER SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING...DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
EARLY IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF COOLDOWN
WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT BEFORE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  68  44  46 /   0  80  90  60
FSM   48  69  51  53 /  10  80 100  70
MLC   52  68  48  49 /  10  80 100  60
BVO   37  70  40  47 /   0  70  90  60
FYV   40  67  47  47 /   0  70 100  70
BYV   41  66  46  46 /   0  60 100  70
MKO   47  68  47  47 /  10  80 100  60
MIO   40  70  43  43 /   0  70 100  70
F10   48  66  47  47 /  10  80  90  60
HHW   51  67  49  52 /  10  90  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30