Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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303
FXUS64 KTSA 031114
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
514 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
areas of light rain will continue to spread over the forecast
area this morning. VFR conditions at the start of the forecast
period will transition to MVFR and eventually IFR/LIFR by this
evening... with these conditions persisting through 12z monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of light rain starting to spread north into the region this
morning in response to amplifying upper trough over the desert
southwest and corresponding upper low over northern Baja.
Widespread areas of rain will likely continue today as stronger
warm advection/isentropic upglide develops in association with
strengthening low level jet. Lingering areas of light
precipitation will remain tonight before ending Sunday morning.

Rain chances will return late Sunday night into Monday as upper
low moves northeast out of northern Mexico and into the ARKLATX
region Monday night. Initial cold front will push through the area
Monday night into Tuesday morning as low pressure system lifts
into the Ohio river valley.

A much stronger surge of arctic air will move into the region on
Wednesday as upper trough swings through the northern/central
plains. Still a few differences in the operations models concerning
timing of front, but rain is expected to transition to light snow
before precipitation shifts east Wednesday night.

Very cold conditions expected into Thursday morning with wind
chills in the single digits as brisk northwest winds persist.
Arctic high pressure will settle over the area Thursday night into
Friday morning with lows in teens over much of northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  40  53  37 /  80  60  10  10
FSM   50  43  53  40 /  80  60  20  30
MLC   48  42  53  40 /  80  50  10  30
BVO   49  41  54  29 /  60  60  10  10
FYV   47  39  49  32 /  80  60  20  10
BYV   47  36  48  34 /  70  60  30  10
MKO   49  42  52  37 /  80  60  10  20
MIO   51  41  52  32 /  60  60  10  10
F10   48  42  54  38 /  80  50  10  20
HHW   48  44  53  44 / 100  50  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14



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