Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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991 FXUS62 KILM 170711 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 311 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure centered just to our north should provide dry weather and onshore winds for much of the upcoming week. A tropical disturbance expected to remain to our south could spread a few showers across the Carolinas Thursday or Friday. Warming trend forecasted for late week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Ridging aloft overhead and elongated surface high east of Cape Cod extended southwest will keep the region dry today and tonight. Strong mid-level subsidence will keep any clouds that develop from moisture in the 800-900mb layer relatively flat. Some of the guidance is showing some shower development this afternoon, but given the strength of the subsidence this seems unpossible. Have noticed a lot of the CAMs have started backing off on coverage this afternoon. Highs today will be near climo as the strongest subsidence from the ridging aloft is located farther north. Even though there will be some subsidence the easterly low level flow will ensure a healthy marine influence, despite water temps running about a degree above normal. Should be enough boundary layer mixing tonight that fog is not an issue, but moisture under the inversion may lead variably cloudy skies overnight. The combo of clouds and boundary layer winds will keep lows above climo. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong subsidence associated with deep ridging from the north will keep the area dry, sunny, and seasonable for the short term period, with PWATs below normal near 1 inch. High temps near normal both Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs around 90F inland and mid 80s across coastal counties with onshore flow and sea breeze. Low temps Tuesday and Wednesday nights in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main feature of the long term is a mid-upper trough that moves east to west south of the area Thursday into Friday. Looks like we may remain dry Thursday before pops increase a bit Friday with the disturbance. WAA and moisture advection dominates next weekend between Bermuda high and trough inland, with latest GFS and CMC keeping a piece of the late week disturbance lingering nearby into the weekend. Current forecast has increasing temps and chance pops for next weekend, and ensemble data supports warming trend late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will continue through the valid TAF period. Some SCT/BKN clouds, with bases between 3k and 5k ft, moving in from the north and northeast will linger into mid-morning before mixing out. Winds from the east again today with speeds around 10 kt during peak heating. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...East-northeast winds this morning will become more easterly during the day as the elongated ridge axis shifts west-northwest and a weak sea breeze develops. Gradient will keep speeds 10-15 kt. Seas will run a little higher than speeds would suggest due to the prolonged onshore flow and decent fetch. The easterly wind wave at 6-7 seconds will be dominant. Tuesday through Friday...Easterly/onshore winds persist Tuesday through end of the week around high pressure centered to the northeast. Winds sustained around 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20 kts through Thursday. A trough is forecasted to move either across or just south of the area around Friday, which will lighten the winds a bit while increasing thunderstorm chances over the waters Thursday night and Friday. Seas 3-4 ft Tuesday increase to 4-5 ft Wednesday through Friday as easterly swell builds. 6-footers possible late Wednesday through early Friday, particularly for outer coastal waters near 20nm from shore. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...III MARINE...III/VAO