660
FXUS63 KLMK 312332
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
732 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Tonight, the cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the
   region.

*  Mainly dry weekend with the next chance for appreciable rainfall
   next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Currently, there is upper ridging over the eastern third of the US
and an upper trough over the western two thirds. Where the ridge and
trough come together near the Mississippi River Valley, there is a
stacked low pressure system over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Extending
south of this system, a cold front extends along the western side of
northern Indiana, through southern Illinois, and on down through
central Arkansas. It`s this front that is working east towards the
Lower Ohio Valley. Rain showers have made it about halfway through
the CWA. Model soundings show very little instability and some dry
air near the surface, so the chance for thunder is very limited.

Ahead of the precipitation, southwest winds are gusting from around
20 to 35 mph, but along the leading edge of the precipitation, winds
are veering towards the west or even northwest before backing
towards the southwest again as they ease. Showers can expect to
continue to work east until the front passes.

Tonight, the cold front should begin working into the CWA from the
northwest. High pressure, centered over the Midwest, will cause
winds to veer towards the northwest. With winds between 5-10 mph and
gusts to near 15 mph, cold air advection will begin cooling
temperatures as skies clear. By Friday morning temperatures in
southern Indiana are expected to be in the low 40s. Temperatures
will warm to the southeast into the mid to upper 50s near Clinton
County.

Tomorrow, as the surface high moves east towards the Great Lakes,
our northwest winds will continue to veer towards the northeast.
High temperatures will be limited to the upper 50s to mid 60s which
is about normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Friday Night through Sunday Night...

A cool, dry airmass will remain in place Friday night into Saturday
as high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes. Saturday
morning will be cool with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s in
southern IN and the Bluegrass to the mid 40s in southern KY. The
rest of the day looks pleasant with a light easterly wind and
afternoon highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday night into Sunday, southerly return flow strengthens
considerably from the southern Plains northeast across the Mid-MS
Valley and Midwest. This occurs between strong high pressure moving
east over the eastern Great Lakes and Interior Northeast, and low
pressure spinning up over the High Plains. While the main LLJ will
remain to our west and northwest during this time, we`ll see WAA and
moistening isentropic ascent. The frontal boundary to our south is
forecast to lift back north across the area as a warm front Sunday
morning, and some scattered light rain will be possible. We`ll see a
NE to SW gradient in temps, with Sunday morning lows ranging from
the low/mid 40s in the Bluegrass to the low/mid 50s in south-central
KY. The best precip chances lift north to mainly southern
IN/northern KY and points northward by Sunday afternoon. Our area
should be in a drier warm sector environment by Sunday evening.

Temperatures on Sunday should rise into the mid/upper 70s in most
areas. Expect a mild start to Monday, with lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Monday through Wednesday...

Highly amplified upper level flow is in place Monday with a deep
upper level trough evolving eastward over the Rockies and High
Plains. Downstream ridging will exist over much of the eastern
United States. A strong subtropical ridge is forecast to be anchored
over FL and the far western Atlantic, with the Plains low pressure
system expected to accelerate northeastward through the Upper
Midwest and Canada. Locally, we will see strengthening deep-layer SW
flow and additional WAA. We look to stay fairly dry on Monday with
an absence of deeper moisture and focused forcing. This should allow
temps to soar into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees Monday afternoon.
Expect breezy southerly winds Monday, with gusts of 20-30 mph
possible.

Widespread rain chances will increase on Tuesday, particularly
during the afternoon and evening hours, ahead of an approaching
cold front. There should be at least a chance for thunderstorms
Tuesday, depending on the thermodynamics. Rain chances are tapering
off by Wednesday as we see drier air filter in from the northwest in
the wake of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Winds are still south-southwest this evening as we await the cold
front to our west. Shower activity and lower ceilings will continue
for this evening and tonight, with most precip activity ending from
west to east through the overnight hours. With the front, expect
ceilings to lower to fuel alternate below 2k ft, but can`t rule out
some IFR ceilings with the frontal passage either. After the front
passes, we`ll quickly see improvements to flight cats, with VFR
returning to all terminals by tomorrow morning. Winds will also
switch from the SSW component we have now, to a N flow for tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CJP