000
FXUS63 KGLD 150813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY, A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH SPRINKLES OR TRACE AMOUNTS AND
ISOLATED MEASURABLE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK ON TRACK. PLAN TO
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FA NEAR THE
UPPER LOW AS ITS MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION. FOR TONIGHT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FA NEAR THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS SMALL AREA. SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DWINDLE BY 06Z THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
ARKANSAS. GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING. CAPE VALUES RUN FROM 1200 TO 1400 J/KG BUT
SHEAR IS LOW. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MOVES IN BY 06Z THURSDAY SO
DOMINANT TYPE WILL BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE HARD TO MEASURE. CONSEQUENTLY WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS.
SOME MORNING SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA THURSDAY
MORNING AS MAIN DYNAMICS ARE OVER NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH BASED STORMS WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS REACHING THE SURFACE. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500-1800 J/KG
AND SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WAVE
AFTER 06Z. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST FA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A
VERY MINOR EVENT AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE FA.

850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE A CONTINUED WARM TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...LIFTED
INDICES OF -4 TO -7...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30 TO 40 KTS. ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE
WILL ALLOW MOST TO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SOLUTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY...SHEAR...THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LEAD ONE TO BEGIN
TALKING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BRINGING SOME COOLER WEATHER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THERE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES RETURN
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERING WITH SURFACE FRONT
STALLED OVER SW NEBRASKA AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. VIRGA SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH VCSH COULDNT BE RULE OUT AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

WITH FRONT STALLED ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASING WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WED AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCLUDED VCTS GROUP DURING THIS
ISSUANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR