Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260548
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD. LOOKING AT RUC
SOUNDINGS FOR TRIBUNE THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ABOVE
700MB...WITH A BULLS EYE OF NEAR 1500J/KG OF CAPE JUST WEST OF THE
KS/CO LINE IN EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY. THIS INSTABILITY DRIFTS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
MEANWHILE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
END AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH FAVORABLE JULY
SOLAR ANGLE SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS HAVE STILL REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(A LITTLE COOLER TOWARDS THE NW).

STALLED FRONT IN THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
COLORADO SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT RANGE). HIGH LCL/LFC OVER OUR CWA SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. IF UPDRAFTS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH...MAYBE LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION CONDITIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A WIND
THREAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OVER
CWA...HOWEVER DESPITE GOOD SURFACE-BL MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AIR MASS ITSELF IS FAIRLY DRY AND COVERAGE IS A QUESTION. BEST
FORCING WOULD ACTUALLY BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE (ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM POSSIBLE MCS IN THE NORTH) MOVES INTO THE
CWA. AT THIS POINT I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING COVERAGE ISOLATED AND
DELAYED EXIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WESTERN
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET.

DEEPENING ON EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY NAM) OR WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS HEIGHTS
AND PATTERN ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND A
RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. I KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S (AROUND 100F IN THE EAST). HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EARLIER
INITIATION OVER OUR CWA...WITH FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE SUN-MON
TIME FRAME...WHICH THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DROPS DOWN SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EARLY ON
WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT WHEN THE EC/GFS
BOTH GENERATE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THE FLOW.

THE PRESENCE OF A CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE WEEK
WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 22-25C RANGE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TRANSLATES TO LOW-MID 80S FOR HIGHS. THE
COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTERLY AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KMCK
SITE. AM THINKING THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG
OUT OF THE KGLD TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS MOVING IN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SOUTH OF KGLD WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS OFF. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL






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