Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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633
FXUS63 KGLD 141728
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1128 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Update to forecast issued to remove mention of morning fog.
Current obs from around the region show fog has burned off. No
other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Temperatures will change little through the short term with high
cooling slightly from the upper 80s and lower 90s today to the
80s on Wednesday while lows will remain in the upper 50s and 60s.

An upper level short wave ridge transitions the high plains region
today with a trough deepening and broadening across the western
U.S. through Tuesday. As the upper flow over the region turns more
southwesterly, weak disturbances in the flow begin to lift out
across the region overnight tonight. This series of disturbances
will combine with the diurnally driven instability expected across
the region today to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms
that transition the region through the evening and overnight
hours.

A more significant set of impulses aloft is set to lift out of
the main upper trough and across the high plains region late
Tuesday through early Wednesday. A deepening lee trough reflected
at the surface will transition the area and consolidate into a low
pressure center that will help focus the convection during the
afternoon and evening before pushing east Tuesday night. This is a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon
and evening across the majority of the area.

Weak ridging is expected Wednesday night as the impulses lifting
out of the region deepen into a trough that tracks across the
northern plains. As a result of only weak instability across the
region and weak ridge aloft, only isolated thunderstorms are
expected to move off the favored higher terrain areas of the
front range and dissipate as they move onto the plains during the
late afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Showers and thunderstorms persist through the long term with below
to near normal temperatures.

The best opportunity for precipitation during this extended period
is on Thursday. A weak cold front nudges into the area from the
north early in the morning with moisture and instability returning
to the region throughout the day. Additionally, a disturbance
travels across the region through the zonal flow aloft. This
setup generates shower and thunderstorm chances throughout
Thursday, with the best chances in the evening.

The aforementioned cold front lingers near the area heading towards
the weekend. On Friday, a shortwave trough pushes across the
northern and central Plains, keeping slight to low chance PoPs in
the forecast. Drier air moves into the region over the weekend as
upper ridging builds in behind the trough. This will limit showers
and thunderstorms, with only spotty slight chances remaining.

High temperatures are generally in the 80s throughout the period
with a few locations reaching the low 90s on Sunday. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

For KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Slight chance of thunderstorms across the area this evening.
Omitted mention of VCTS or VCSH due to lack of confidence in where
storm formation would be, if any. Skies should remain clear and
winds light and out of a southerly direction through the morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...SME



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