Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300831
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD STARTING AT HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASED IN DENSITY TO THE WEST.  RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER YUMA COUNTY.

HIRES NMM...ARW...AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
21Z...AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES
ALOFT TRANSLATE TO BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG IN THE PROFILE...WITH
CAPE VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.  WITH 0-6 SHEAR VALUES ON THE
FRINGE OF 40 KTS...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.  KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS OUTPUT DUE TO BLANKETING
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MID MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS FLOW AND CROSS OUR REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME... ON THE SURFACE... ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
BROUGHT IN BY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THIS PATTERN WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KMCK AND
KGLD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH SITES BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE INTO THE REGION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS


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