Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010854
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
254 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS TODAY. TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED
DIAGONALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OUT OF NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHWETT KANSAS.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TODAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA WILL BE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS ITS
STARTS TO MOVE BACK NORTHEAST. POPS INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
A FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA AND INTO THE FA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.  POPS START DECREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
THE FRONT MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE  EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH THE FLOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH 100
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR EAST. COOLER READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MIN
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE WET WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A CLOSED LOW MOVES
ACROSS CANADA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS BY MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AS WARMER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST. THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AND BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE THE MOTION IS
TOWARDS THE SOUTH...SHORT RANGE HI RES GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES EITHER TERMINAL...SO I HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF 50 MPH OUTFLOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...AND AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THIS WILL MAKE
IT TO EITHER TERMINAL BEFORE LOOSING MOMENTUM...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS. OTHERWISE PREVAILING WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT KGLD
WEDNESDAY BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/WEAK FRONT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR



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