Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 131913

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
113 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

18z water vapor imagery indicated cwa under fast WSW flow between
trough over the PAC NW and southern plains ridge. At the sfc, cold
front was well to the south of the area and was located roughly along
a KCNC to KPTT line with high pressure building into the area. A
large area of stratus was observed immediately behind the front
which was slowly eroding across the forecast area.

Main near term concerns will be fog and precip potential tonight,
followed by magnitude of the winds tomorrow.

For tonight, warm air advection will increase as lee trough and
low level jet intensify through the evening. This increase in
winds will begin to advect higher mixing ratios into the area
above the frontal zone. While several models breaking out light
precipitation, sounding profiles appear to suggest very shallow
moisture profile similar to light drizzle as opposed to any deep
precipitation processes. There is a small threat for storms after
midnight however across southeastern CWA. Vertical profiles
suggest destabilization will occur through the night with around
1000 j/kg of elevated cape by 9z. This looks to remain somewhat
capped, but with persistent forcing and nearby frontal zone
providing more focused ascent, think there is a small chance for
storm development.

Other concern that will likely have a large impact on sensible is
potential for fog development tonight. Short term rapid update
models continue to suggest moisture profile will become more and
more favorable for fog development overnight as moisture content
increases. With todays cloud cover limiting temps, some portions
of CWA will be preconditioned for fog development. Best chances
are along the KS-CO border and would not be surprised to see
dense fog developing, but confidence not high enough for any

On Saturday, cold front will quickly advance across the area
during the afternoon hours. Still a fair amount of disagreement
with magnitude of winds behind the front and how deeply mixed the
atmosphere will be. GFS looks quite windy and with dewpoints
bottoming out could create a quick period of critical fire
weather conditions. However, this seems to be the outlier at this
point and a period of wind gusts to around 45 mph the most likely
scenario. Regardless of the post front humidity, strong winds will
make an enhanced fire threat given current state of fuels.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Ridge across the southwest US on Monday flattens, resulting in NW
flow shifting to more of a western direction Tuesday. Large scale
trough is shown to deepen by the end of next week across the western
US, with increasing spread beyond our current valid period on
evolution/timing of this trough.

Effectively these shifts in flow aloft will have little change in
sensible weather as downslope/lee troughing keeps WAA in place along
with above normal temperatures. A stable dry air mass will also
persist through the extended periods keeping conditions dry. There
may be weak cold fronts that move near our northern, and the lee
trough may occasional shift further southeast as shortwave troughs
propagate near the Canadian border. The air mass changes are
brief/slight with southerly flow in the BL quickly recovering.

Highs temperatures should be in the 70s, and we may see some
locations approach 80F particularly Thursday with deeper SW flow.
Overnight lows will tend to range near seasonal normals in the upper
30s/lower 40s due to clearing skies and decreasing overnight winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

MFVR ceilings will persist for the next 2 hours or so before some
gradual scattering of cloud field is expected with heights
hovering around the MVFR/VFR threshold. Main concern will be for
the overnight hours as persistent daytime cloud cover and
increasing return flow will provide a potentially strong set up
for overnight fog. Still a wide amount of uncertainty about extent
and magnitude of the fog, but given latest trends feel confidence
in IFR or less categories enough to mention for GLD terminal with
more of a low stratus threat for MCK.




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