Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 192055
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge flattening some as a
trough in Canada moves east.  Water vapor shows pockets of higher
moisture, but the moisture is not very deep.  At the surface the
cold front was in southern South Dakota. Ahead of the front was a
pre-frontal trough which extended south across the High Plains.
Behind the pre-frontal trough winds were from the northwest.

Tonight the northwest winds will become light in the early evening.
Lows will be similar to last night due to the same air mass in
place.  Overnight the cold front will begin to move into the Tri-
State Area from the north.

Monday morning the front will stall roughly halfway through the Tri-
State Area then pivot over the east half of the forecast area,
becoming more of a backdoor cold front.  Due to the dry environment
and laminar upper level flow overhead, do not anticipate any
precipitation, with the front.  Locations west of the front will
have temperatures similar to today with a breezy south wind, but not
quite as warm.  East of the front will be cooler with an east wind.
The breezy south winds and very dry air may lead to critical fire
weather conditions for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in East
Central CO.  See fire weather section for further information.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Monday night-Tuesday night...high pressure slowly strengthens across the area
with east to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph, locally higher at times. As the
surface high slowly moves east Tuesday night winds slowly become east to
southeast at similar speeds.

Low level moisture may pool immediately along/behind the front after midnight
Monday night generally from Yuma to Goodland/Burlington to Leoti/Russell
Springs. As a result some fog is possible. Otherwise there will be a chance
for some light rain mainly along/east of the CO/KS border. Rain chances
decrease from west to east during the morning with dry conditions expected
in the afternoon as moisture moves away from the area. Another weather
disturbance moves across the area from the west-southwest Tuesday night
bringing a chance for light rain and maybe some drizzle through midnight.
After midnight rain is expected to mix with or changeover to snow as the
weather system continues east.

Low temperatures Monday night in the upper 30s to low 40s. High temperatures
Tuesday currently upper 40s northeast/east to low 60s far southwest, subject
to change. Low temperatures Tuesday night in the low 30s.

Wednesday...at the surface we have about a 12mb pressure gradient across
the area with high pressure to our east and low pressure along the front range
of the rockies. Winds will be from a southeast direction and the gradient
supports breezy wording for many. Precipitation chances decrease from west to
east during the morning with dry conditions expected in the afternoon. An
upper level ridge axis moves across the area during the period ahead of an
organizing upper trough across the west. Majority of the forecast area will
remain under the influence of cool high pressure, the far west will be the
exception where warmer air aloft tries to move in. It appears that another
piece of energy and increase in moisture/clouds moves across the area
leading to another chance of light rain during the night, mainly across
our far north and eastern zones. Will have to watch for possibility of fog
during the night as well as GFS model continues to advertise saturated
boundary layer. High temperatures look to be in the low 50s east and low
60s far west. Low temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Thursday...12z GFS is now following yesterdays and this mornings ECMWF
run with regards to handling of an approaching 500mb nearly closed low near
the four corners area during the day intensifying and closing off to a
547-550mb low over southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas by 12z Friday.

Low clouds will slowly decrease from west to east as drier air moves in
from the west. There will however be an increase in clouds above the
boundary layer. GFS showing an instability axis setting up along the CO/KS
border where dryline is expected. Good low level convergence along the dryline
with favorable parameters to continue mention of afternoon thunderstorms.
Breezy to windy southerly component to the winds also possible.

For the overnight hours strong north winds develop generally along and west
of the CO/KS border on the backside of forecasted sfc low around Cheyenne
Wells to southwest Kansas area. Wraparound precipitation is expected in the
same area as strongest north winds after midnight with dry slot across the
remainder of the area. 850mb and 2m temperatures support all rain.

High temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures in the mid 30s west
to mid 40s east.

Friday...550-555dm upper low continues to slowly move east during the day
reaching the Wichita area then into southwest Missouri by Saturday morning.
Surface low shows a similar path. Strong north winds slowly spread east
during the day then decreases pretty quickly during the night as sfc high
noses into the area. Wraparound precipitation shield slowly moves east across
the area during the day and out of the area before midnight. High temperatures
currently advertised in the low to mid 50s west, low 60s east but subject to
be adjusted downward quite a bit if above mentioned scenario works out.
Low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s west, mid 30s east.

Saturday...dry weather expected. There may be an increase in high clouds late
in the day ahead of another approaching upper trough. Light winds during the
morning increase a bit from the southeast during the afternoon along and west
of the CO/KS border. Pressure gradient increases during the night with low level
jet overhead. Southerly winds breezy at times. High clouds increase quite a bit
as well. High temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70 with lows in the low 30s
to around 40.

Sunday...general idea is for the forecast area to be under troughiness aloft.
Could see a few rain showers across parts of far eastern Colorado during the
day. Currently have high temperatures in the low to mid 60s with lows in the
low 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy northwest winds will
become light by the early evening. Am less optimistic about the
fog tonight due to the lack of a shallow saturated layer
developing at the surface at 12z. The winds will turn from the
northwest to the northeast Monday morning as a backdoor cold front
moves through.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ001.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252-253.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for COZ253-254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL



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