Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260817
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT
TUE APR 26 2016

A RELATIVELY STRONG H5 TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STRATUS LINGERING
INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS MAINLY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT COMBINED WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS
CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF HWY 283 HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
RISKS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACTIVITY
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK JET STREAM FORCING WILL KEEP
THE SYSTEM FROM BEING PUSHED EAST VERY QUICKLY AND AS A RESULT WE
COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT
TUE APR 26 2016

SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY AND
FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE H5
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LOWER POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS KGLD AND
KMCK. EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP BY 09-10Z AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KMCK. TREND SHOULD
BE TOWARDS IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KGLD AROUND 12Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD. STRATUS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING AT KMCK AS
FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KMCK BY TUESDAY EVENING AS DRIER
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL (2 INCHES OR LARGER) EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL
WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KMCK. THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE EVEN AT KMCK...SO I KEPT MENTION LIMITED TO
VCTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR


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