Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 171733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY AND THEN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE FA.  850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE LOWER 70S. MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE MID 40S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL...FALLING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THURSDAY AFTER THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE
IS SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND OR LESS
THAN 300 J/KG...SO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FILTERS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT WINDS 5-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT LINGERS OVER
SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS. LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND
15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR


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