Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 062256

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
356 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Shallow based convection had developed due to surface heating and
steep low level lapse rates. Due to dry lower layers, only expect
this to be flurries until the air mass stabilizes. North to
northwest winds will decrease to 15 to 25 mph during the evening
and about 10 mph less after midnight. Went with a blend for the
overnight temperatures.

For Thursday, northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Winds are lower due to not as good of mixing.
Left front quadrant of a northern upper jet along with some mid
level forcing will begin to affect the area during the middle and
late afternoon hours. Lapse rates are poor but considering the
strength of the lift, have inserted a slight chance of light snow
or flurries with little to no accumulation expected. Combination
of cold air advection and increasing cloud cover will only allow
high temperatures to climb into the lower and middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Overview: A highly amplified /meridional/ synoptic pattern,
characterized by deep ridging along the Pacific coast and deep
troughing along/east of the MS river valley, is expected to
prevail throughout the extended forecast period, with N/NW flow
aloft over the High Plains.

Thu night: Expect increasing mid/upper level cloud cover Thu night
in association with DPVA and differential thermal advection (the
latter entirely within northerly flow aloft, interestingly enough)
on the eastern periphery of a pronounced ridge along the Pacific
coast. A few snow showers cannot be ruled out anywhere in the
forecast area Thu night, though the relative best chance will be
along/west of the CO/KS border. Expect lows 5-10F warmer than
previous nights due to cloud cover and a N/NW breeze, in the
lower/mid 20s.

Fri/Fri night: Significant weather in the form of 1) high winds
and 2) critical fire weather conditions remain possible across
western portions of the forecast area (particularly eastern CO)
during the day Friday. Maximum wind gust potential and minimum RHs
remain somewhat difficult to ascertain due to uncertainty in the
evolution of mid/upper level cloud cover (and effect on
insolation/mixing) during peak heating, however, guidance is
fairly unanimous in showing the strongest H8-H7 flow (50-55 knots)
and warmest/driest conditions (lower/mid 50s and 15-20% RH)
along/west of the KS/CO border. Given the aforementioned
uncertainty and that the potential for significant weather is
still 36-42 hr out, it is too early to consider a high wind/fire
weather watch with the forecast package this afternoon. Expect
lows Sat morning ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s, depending
on cloud cover/wind.

Sat/Sat Night: Dry /relatively warm/ conditions and a lingering
20-30 knot NNW breeze may result in continued adverse fire weather
conditions during the day Sat. With less cloud cover and lighter
low-level flow /weaker sfc winds/, one would expect Sun morning lows
at/below those on Sat morning from a radiational cooling standpoint,
however, this may be offset (to some degree) by rising heights

Sun-Wed: Expect dry conditions, above normal temperatures and
breezy NW winds in assoc/w NNW/NW flow aloft on the eastern
periphery of an upper level ridge over the Pacific coast and
Intermountain West.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1011 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. The main concern
is the strong gusty winds through this evening and again late
tomorrow morning. For Kgld, until sunset north winds near 28 knots
with gusts around 39 knots are expected. At sunset those winds
decrease to near 17 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. From 06z
to 16z no gusts are expected with northwest winds near 10 knots.
At 16z the winds increase to around 15 knots with gusts to near 23

For Kmck, through 04z northwest winds of 19 to 22 knots with gusts
into the 27 to 32 knot range are expected. At 04z the gusts stop
with north to northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots expected through
the end of period.




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