Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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007
FXUS63 KGLD 161948
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR TORNADO WATCH
#176 THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WITH SFC HEATING...INITIAL PLACEMENT OF DRYLINE BECOMING A BIT
CLEARER WITH TDS FALLING AT ITR...GLD AND SYF AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. FRONTAL ZONE/WEAK SFC LOW ALSO APPARENT NEAR YUMA
ALTHOUGH CLOUD FIELDS AND DRYING OUT OF AIRMASS IN VICINITY NOT
SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR RAPID INITIATION. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
HIGH RES DATA HAVE SLOWED PRECIPITATION TIMING IN CWA UNTIL AFTER
18Z WITH BEST CHANCES IN 21 TO 00Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY...STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS RAP AS IT SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING CURRENT SFC EVOLUTION WELL. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
AND INITIATION POINTS BECOME CLEARER...WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ARE
GENERALLY OVERCAST WITH NOTICEABLE CLEARING APPEARING OVER EAST
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 60S FROM WEST
TO EAST RESPECTIVELY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH. A
DRYLINE...ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...IS RECEDING EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENT LOCATION OF THIS DRYLINE IS FROM
TRENTON NEBRASKA TO BREWSTER TO SCOTT CITY KANSAS. LATEST WSR-88D
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...NEW SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR
FLAGLER. THIS SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE COMBINATION WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENTIAL IN TODAY`S SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT IS THIS
TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

***THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOCUSES ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TODAY...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF ANOTHER TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS.***

TODAY...WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY AS MANY
PIECES COME TOGETHER. OVERALL...FEEL THIS IS ANOTHER DANGEROUS
SATURDAY WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER AND CLOSE ATTENTION NEEDS TO
BE PAID TO LATEST FORECAST UPDATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WITH LITTLE ADVANCEMENT TO THE EAST FORECAST UNTIL AFTER
00Z/6 PM MDT. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS...DO NOT FORESEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
DRYLINE TO RACE EAST AS FORECAST BY MANY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS. INSTEAD...HAVE USED THE LATEST NAM 12 AS THE BASIS FOR MY
FORECAST WHICH INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY DRYLINE. BY THIS
REASONING...MORE OF TRI-STATE REGION IS UNDER THREAT FOR A HIGHER
IMPACT DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS THREAT MAY EVEN EXIST AS
FAR WEST AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.

THREATS:
THE THREATS TODAY ARE LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS
AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINS FROM TRAINING STORMS
ARE ALSO A CONCERN SO FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ADDITIONALLY...THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE QUICKLY WITH STORM
MOTIONS AS FAST AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

LOCATION:
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR VIOLENT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPC
GRAPHICS FOR BETTER RESOLUTION AS WE STRONGLY AGREE WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT FOR LOCATIONS OF THE ENHANCED AND MODERATE RISK AREAS.

TIMING:
THERE MAY BE A FEW ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST...MOST SIGNIFICANT ROUND BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER NOON. THIS IS
WHEN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
SPREAD EAST. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FINALLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND MOVE ON FROM THE WEST.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:
A TORNADO OUTBREAK SEEMS LIKELY TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS. CLOSE ATTENTION NEEDS TO BE PAID TO LATEST FORECAST UPDATES
AND WATCHES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE ISSUED TODAY. STORMS...ONCE THEY
DEVELOP...WILL ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY BECOME SEVERE AND MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST. RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SO PLEASE BE
AWARE OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND DEEPEN... CREATING A NEGATIVE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 0-
6KM SHEAR PROFILE IS STRONG WITH 55-65KT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING 200-400 J/KG AT
BEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP POPS IN THE REGION IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
LOW CAPE AND WEAK THETA-E GRADIENTS HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE HIGH SHEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.

A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY. EARLY GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONG
LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE AND DEEPEN THIS TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME
LONG FETCH RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. CAPE VALUES ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO 800-1200 J/KG WITH
LIMITED SHEAR OF 30-40KTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. IT
IS VERY EARLY STILL HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

BOTH TAF SITES WILL BEGIN TO SEE TRW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF EACH AIRPORT...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BETTER POTENTIAL IS FOR KMCK BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY TRW
POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 06Z...TRW ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITH VCSH FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCT050-070 UNLESS THUNDER DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BEGIN
AT SSW 20-30KTS...BECOMING WNW AT KGLD BY 02Z SUNDAY AT
15-25KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 11Z SUNDAY. FOR KMCK...SSW WINDS BEGIN
BACKING TO THE SE THRU 00Z TONIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE WNW BY 06Z
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES REGION...WITH 15-25KTS MAINLY AFTER
16Z SUNDAY...5-15KTS BEFORE THAT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...JN



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