Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 290433

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1033 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Issued at 914 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Extended the isolated chances for rain over the west for another
hour or so based on latest radar trends. Weak upper level short
wave trough over the west is helping prolong the storms. In a
couple hours the lift/low condensation pressure deficits will
shift south, so am anticipating the weak storms to end with storm
activity shifting to the south.

Overnight the nose of the low level jet and strong/deep isentropic
lift will cause some isolated to scattered storms to develop south
of Highway 40. These storms will move eastward during the
overnight hours. Based on the low lapse rates, am not anticipating
any severe storms tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Visible satellite this afternoon shows cu developing across the
entire area but a bit more organized upstream near the Cheyenne
Ridge. This is all being driven by surface heating as upper
heights are actually rising. Latest runs of the hires models
suggest isolated showers/thunderstorms will drift southeast from
the Cheyenne Ridge before dissipating around sunset. Will carry
slight chance pops for northeast Colorado but not sure these will
get much further so left only 10 pops in Kansas and Nebraska
tonight. Some of the models develop precipitation after 12z as a
shortwave trough rotates up from the southwest around the southern
plains ridge, but there is better model consensus during the
afternoon hours for widely scattered development. It will be
moderately unstable by then but deep layer shear will generally
be less than 20kts. A storm or two could briefly pulse up to near
severe limits in that environment but overall the severe threat
will be on the low end for Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

A closed H5 low and associated trough will traverse the northern
Plains Sunday night and into Monday. This will drape a theta-e axis
southward into the central and southern High Plains, creating a
focus for thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon and evening.
There will be good instability in place with 3000 to 3500 J/Kg of
CAPE and little to no CIN but there is a discontinuity with the
axis of greatest deep layer shear. At the same time there will be
a secondary and weaker low pressure system positioned in the
southwestern States. This will serve to increase moisture flow out
of the south out ahead of the theta-e boundary. Global guidance is
not in very good agreement with regards to available moisture;
however, there is good agreement upon the placement of both areas
of low pressure in the upper levels thus, good pattern consensus.

All this considered, there will be a chance for the thunderstorms
that form on Monday afternoon and evening to become severe. Current
guidance points to the threat of large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes. Regarding the tornado threat, low level shear will be in
the 12 to 21 kt range which builds through the afternoon thus the
greatest tornado threat will be in the late afternoon and early
evening especially in the eastern portions of the CWA.

The northern system moves slowly east as we head into Tuesday with
the axis of instability further eastward and a bit more positively
tilted. There will be another chance of thunderstorms through the
day on Tuesday afternoon/evening with the system exiting the region
overnight into Wednesday. High pressure begins to build to the west
and slide slowly eastward late Wednesday and into the Thursday to
Friday time frame. Dry weather and warmer temperatures will be the
dominant weather type Thursday through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds will continue
through the TAF period. Storms are persisting over East Central
Colorado this evening, but am still thinking they should end
before reaching KGLD. Am anticipating storm activity for the rest
of the night to be south of KGLD.

Sunday storms may start to develop during the late morning over
the east half of the area, with coverage increasing during the
afternoon. Storm coverage still too sparse to be included in the
TAF at this time.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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