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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170847
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
247 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

PER CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL DATA...INCREASED CHANCE AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

AFTER THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING...THERE LOOKS TO STILL BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF DUE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT. DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE AND MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
GETTING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL...INSERTED FOG FROM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. DUE TO A RAIN COOLED MADE SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. ALSO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND WIND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REST OF THE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS WILL SUSTAIN MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WITH THE BEST THREAT IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT THE CWA...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH WHILE THE
FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN PEAK HEATING...BELIEVE
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS
LLJ INCREASES TO PRODUCE A LONGER HODOGRAPH TO SUSTAIN STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT
FRI MAY 17 2013

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS PLACING THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA FOR MONDAY MORNING...WITH STRONGEST 500 MB JET
OF 60 KNOTS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF KANSAS. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PREDICTED TO STAGNATE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE TRI STATE AREA.  THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH AN ELONGATED
TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION.  STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KNOTS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THETA E VALUES AT 850 MB ARE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 300 AND 310 K...PROVIDING MARGINAL MOISTURE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.  GFS IS PLACING HIGHER THETA E VALUES INTO
KANSAS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH VALUES AROUND 340 K.  THIS COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
PROPER DAYTIME HEATING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PROVIDING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  CAPE
VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW...WITH POSSIBILITIES OF REACHING 500 J/KG.
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS PRESENT IN THE
MODELS...FILTERING INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE THETA E VALUES BETWEEN 310 AND 320 K...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE MARGINAL MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. LIFTED INDEX
VALUES FOR THE PERIOD GENERALLY ARE AROUND -2 CELCIUS.  GFS HAS
HIGHER VALUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHERE LIFTED INDEX VALUES
WILL REACH BETWEEN -3 AND -6 CELCIUS.  GFS CAPE VALUES FOR FRIDAY
COULD REACH BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA...PROVIDING
CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
INDICATES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH LARGER CAPE VALUES FARTHER TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA.  BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE FOR FRIDAY
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE KGLD SITE UNTIL AROUND
10Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD
DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCK WITH
FOG JUST ABOVE MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SINCE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...BULLER