Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 130930
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for locations generally west of a
line from Trenton to Colby and Wallace through 16z Monday. Highest
confidence in dense fog exists in this area per short term model
guidance. Goodland area has been at 1/4 mile for about 2 hours now
and that should continue through the night. Increased cloud cover
quite a bit both low clouds and cirrus overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Once again main issues to address will be onset, location and
coverage of stratus and fog. Morning upper air soundings, surface
observations, and satellite showing a moist air mass remains to our
and southeast. This has been the same air mass that has been over
and near the area since the end of last week.

Currently lee side trough is developing as surface ridge has pulled
to the east. Tightening gradient and pressure falls seen on analysis
and captured by the model output. This is going to cause breezy
conditions over the western third of the area. This strengthening
southerly flow will pull the saturated air mass back into the region
during the night. Through the day the guidance has shown a little
tendency to start development a little further west. Hrrr and Rap
have been doing the best recently have caught onto this.

With latest trends have adjusted fog west through Monday morning
from earlier thoughts. Wherever this forms, it will likely become
dense since the air mass has not changed. Evening shift will have to
pin this down. Fog looks like it dissipates by late morning.
However, stratus looks to hang into the afternoon. Even with stratus
hanging on longer today, temperatures rebounded nicely. So kept the
temperatures near the blend except for the far west which has shown
a tendency to be too cool in this pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Zonal flow will prevail on Thursday as we will be on the upstream
side of a retreating ridge. A trough will push into the Pacific
Northwest early Thursday and move southeastward. This will move
quickly southeastward, bringing a cold front across the region very
early Friday morning. The frontal passage will be dry; however, a
secondary weak post-frontal theta-e boundary will move from
northwest to southeast during the afternoon. This will allow for a
chance of showers or mixed precipitation mainly across our
northernmost counties.

A relatively strong ridge will be in place to our west as we head
into Saturday, keeping the CWA on the downstream side with sustained
northwest flow aloft. This will encourage persistently dry
conditions through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

For KGLD, vlifr conditions expected from taf issuance through
about 16z with winds from the south to southwest occasionally
gusting near 25kts. After 17z vfr conditions return with winds
from the southwest then south at speeds under 10kts.

For KMCK, vlifr conditions expected from about 07z-10z with
mvfr/ifr conditions through 19z or so...winds from the south or
southeast under 10kts. From 20z-03z vfr conditions expected with
light southeast to south winds. After 04z there is a good
possibility of stratus and possibly fog/br moving back west over
the terminal. Right now just have a scattered deck around 300` but
if models are correct ifr/vlifr cigs expected.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ this morning for
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027.

CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for COZ090>092.

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ this morning for
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99



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