Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 142330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Upper level ridging is building eastward into the Northern and
Central Rockies toward the plains, with a closed upper low over
Texas/Oklahoma. Satellite imagery shows axis of subsidence mid-
upper  dry air encroaching on our western and northern CWA while
a plume of high moisture streams northward.

This afternoon-Tonight: As upper low continues to transition
eastward high clouds will exit the region and surface low pressure
and west-southwest flow will overtake our CWA late tonight. Mixing
heights are limiting potential gusts this afternoon, however we
will  still see 15-20kt winds prevail through the early evening
before decoupling of the low levels takes place. There should be
better radiational conditions tonight than last night, though with
the moderation of the air mass aloft most locations will see lows
very similar (20s...still above normal).

Wednesday: SW flow through the boundary layer will result in
increasing WAA through the day and projected air mass should
support  at least 60F across our CWA. Some warmer guidance is
indicating potential for mid 60s. Gradient is much weaker than
today and LLJ will have shifted out of the region, so I am not
anticipating breezy conditions again. Tds may decrease enough in
the west to lower RH below 20%, but with lack of gusty winds
critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Forecast concerns will be how warm does it get on Thursday and
chance of precipitation at the beginning of next week. Satellite
showing an amplified flow from the Pacific into North America.

Wednesday night...Weak jet moves across the area which may produce
some cloud cover. Also downslope winds and warm air advection will
make for a mild night.

Thursday/Thursday night...Ridging aloft with little to no cloud
cover will allow for a good warmup. There will be downslope winds in
place through 700 mb although not terribly strong. Temperatures
through 700 mb are also warmer than yesterday as well. So
considering that and with some collaboration, high temperatures were
raised from what the builder produced.

Friday...Surface trough/weak cold front moves into the area,
especially the northwest two thirds of the area. So temperatures
will be cooler and what I was given looks reasonable.

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still in disagreement at
the beginning of next week. However, the Ecmwf and Gfs are in closer
agreement than yesterday with the Gfs becoming more like the Ecmwf.
The Canadian is still showing a closed circulation moving across and
it also has it coming across much faster.

The Gfs shows a left front quadrant moving across the area Sunday
afternoon and evening whereas the Ecmwf is showing jet lift about 12
hours later. Considering the current and expected amplified flow, a
more slower solution will probably end up more right.

In general the Sunday into Monday time frame will be the period of
concern for precipitation. New builder pops cut back on pops during
this time, especially on Sunday afternoon and evening. Have a little
more confidence in precipitation since models are in better
agreement. However, there is still a lot of detail differences.
Outside of cosmetic/minor adjustments, left the pops alone for this
period. Some cape in the column not too far away. Considering what
looks to be a rather strong system and some other instability
parameters, decided to put in an isolated mention of thunderstorms.

For temperatures, left those alone considering the uncertainty and
differences. In general, temperatures look to remain above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 428 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. North winds will quickly
decline during the first hour of the TAF. Through the TAF winds
will gradually turn from the north to the southwest by Wednesday




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