Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1113 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Main concerns will be ending of precipitation and how cold does it
get tonight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue across
the area this afternoon. This is a result of a slow moving and
closed off mid/upper level storm system. This system will not begin
leaving the area until later tonight and tomorrow morning. As a
result, will have to keep lingering precipitation going until early
tomorrow afternoon.

This means I will keep high pops through the evening and then slowly
begin decreasing them during the last half of the night into
tomorrow morning. Even after the rainfall ends, thick low and mid
level cloud cover will not decrease until after sunrise tomorrow
morning. Also model output is keeping winds in the 10 to 15 mph
range, even over the far west. Because of the above reasoning and
collaboration with WFO BOU, have decided to cancel the frost
advisory. Feeling is that many factors will prevent widespread mid
30s temperatures.

Kept high temperatures cool for Saturday as a result of the
lingering cloud cover and north winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Saturday night: Dry conditions are expected with subsidence aloft in
wake of departing upper low. Air mass begins to moderate from the
west to the east, but with good radiational conditions our CWA should
still drop into the upper 30s. Surface Tds are shown to be in the
upper 30s, but not far off the surface lower Td`s could result in
some locations dropping to the middle 30s. This could be very
isolated due to the air mass change.

Sunday-Tuesday night: A quick moving shortwave trough embedded
within the mid-upper NW flow aloft will swing through the region
Sunday afternoon and evening following by a stronger negatively
tilted trough Monday and Monday night. There may be some weak
forcing as trough slides east to support precip chances returning
Tuesday afternoon. Best chances/coverage will tend to be ahead of
approaching trough Sunday night and Monday. Instability is marginal,
but with high shear environment we could see a few strong or
marginally severe storms develop: primarily late Sunday
afternoon/early Sunday evening.

Quasi-stationary front remains in place near our CWA through
Monday, before shifting south with stronger trough Monday night.
Temperatures Sunday through Monday night will tend to be near or
just below seasonal normals Sunday and Monday (highs near 70/lows
40s). Cooler temperatures will be in place Tuesday-Tuesday night
with CAA in place (Highs 60s, lows upper 30s-40s).

Wednesday-Friday: Guidance still shows main storm track aloft
shifting east, with westerly flow brining much drier air to the
region at least through Friday morning. Active pattern returns by
the weekend, and we could start to see shower/thunderstorm chances
return by Friday afternoon or Friday night. Temperatures in these
periods will trend warmer, with above normal temperatures in the 80s
both Thursday and Friday. Depending on strength of lee trough (and
WAA) we could see highs in the upper 80s or even 90 by the end of
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

IFR continues to be the prevailing conditions at both KGLD and
KMCK due to widespread rain showers. Ceilings will be gradually
lowering through the overnight, then gradually lifting through
Saturday morning and afternoon. Showers will slowly work their way
northward through the overnight and end Saturday morning. VFR
should return to KGLD by early Saturday afternoon and to KMCK by
mid to late Saturday afternoon.




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