Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
320 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 253 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

The broad high pressure area aloft extending from the desert
southwest to the central plains retrogrades over the 4-corners
region by late Thursday. Several short wave troughs ride up the
back side of the high and emerge east of the Rockies over the
central and northern high plains region during this time.

As the upper flow becomes move zonal across the Rockies and
eventually somewhat northwesterly, the lee surface lee trough
deepens across the area from the Nebraska panhandle to northeast
New Mexico today and moves eastward across the central high plains
and forecast area overnight. The low continues to move slowly
across the plains on Wednesday dragging a cold front south across
the high plains behind it. Cooler high pressure is expected to
move into the region in the wake of the front Thursday and
Thursday night. Todays highs in the 90s to lower 100s will cool
into the 80s by Thursday.

With the prefrontal trough across the area today along with plenty
of available moisture and instability associated with daytime
heating in addition to front approaching the area on Wednesday and
a couple of short wave troughs aloft moving across the region,
expect scattered thunderstorms to move off the Rockies today and
across the forecast area during the late afternoon and evening
hours. A few showers are expected to continue overnight with
another round of scattered showers on Wednesday and Wednesday
night mainly across the southern portions of the forecast area
along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the region.
Thursday may see a few showers across eastern Colorado. With a
marginal risk of severe weather expected across the forecast area
today, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats
with some of the stronger storms late this afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

During the extended period an upper level ridge amplifies over the
Rockies creating a strong northwesterly flow aloft over the region.
The 700mb level shows significant amount of moisture over the local
area. Additionally, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to
move within this upper level flow, resulting in a chance of showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening for the period.

Temperatures during the extended area anticipated to be near


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Vfr conditions are expected for most if not all of the period. For
Kgld, south winds of around 12 knots will continue until mid
morning. At that time the winds will increase to near 18 knots
with gusts to around 26 knots. Near sunset the winds will decrease
to near 13 knots with gusts to near 22 knots and continue through
the rest of the evening.

For Kmck, south winds near 11 knots will continue the first half
of the period. From now until 13z there will be low level wind
shear. Late in the morning the south winds will increase to near
15 knots with gusts to near 23 knots. This last to near sunset
when the wind shifts more to the southeast and decreases to around
12 knots.

Thunderstorms are expected to be in the area during the last six
hours of this forecast. However since so late in the period and
some timing differences in model output, no mention of
thunderstorms has been inserted at this time and will be fine
tuned the closer it gets to the onset.




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