Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 142112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
212 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Forecast concerns will be the temperature forecast through Tuesday
which includes very cold chill temperatures Monday night into
Tuesday, and the chance of snow through tonight into Monday.
Satellite showing a progressive flow through the central Pacific
before becoming amplified from the eastern Pacific into the western
Atlantic. High amplitude ridge near the west coast of North America
has become slightly more amplified from yesterday.

Models started out fine at the jet level. Models were close on the
mid levels with the Ukmet and Ecmwf doing slightly better,
especially with the western ridge. The Canadian and Sref started out
the best on the low level thermal.

Today...Have been getting precipitation during the night as a result
of a left front quadrant of the mid and upper level jet on top of a
mid level baroclinic zone. Jet moves east through the morning with
it being just east of the area late in the morning. This
precipitation has been decreasing in coverage and intensity as the
night has progressed. Looks like it will be done by the beginning of
the day so will not include any precipitation this morning.

It looks like there will be more cloud cover around than previous
anticipated. That plus the newer guidance not as warm earlier, I did
lower the maxes just a little.

.LONG TERM...(Monday evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

...Wind Chill Advisory in effect Monday evening through late
Tuesday morning...

Monday evening/Tuesday: With an arctic airmass (~1055 mb high)
building southward through the Dakotas into the Central Plains,
clearing skies, and possible fresh (albeit light) snow cover,
expect temperatures to plummet into the single digits in far
west/southwest portions of the area and 0 to -5F (perhaps a few
degrees lower if fresh snow cover is present) in north/northeast
portions of the area. In other words, coldest north of I-70 and
east of Hwy 25. Breezy north winds Monday evening will weaken
throughout the night, however, with such cold temperatures, a 7-12
mph breeze will be sufficient to maintain dangerous wind chill
readings as low as -15 to -25 degrees, coldest north of I-70 and
east of Hwy 25. At this point, confidence is sufficient to warrant
the issuance of a Wind Chill Advisory, which is in effect from
00-18Z Tue.

Tue-Sat: Model guidance continues to indicate an amplified/
progressive synoptic pattern over the CONUS through next weekend.
As a result, forecast uncertainty remains above average,
particularly with regard to precipitation chances. At this time,
the relative greatest potential for precipitation (light/fleeting
as it may appear) is on Sat/Sat night. In general, expect dry
conditions and large diurnal temperature ranges Tue-Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

VFR conditions are expected with a possibility of lowering to MVFR
with light snow and lower clouds between 05-13Z as a colder
airmass moves into the region overnight and early Monday morning.


KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Monday to 11 AM MST
     /noon CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday for

NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Monday to 11 AM MST
     /noon CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081.



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