Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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574
FXUS63 KGLD 231956
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
156 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Large upper low near SLC is organizing a surface low in north-
central Colorado which will ultimately move into NE/SD overnight.
Resultant tight pressure gradient will continue to generate gusty
south winds to 40 mph through the afternoon...diminishing
somewhat this evening to SSE 20-30. Later tonight a surge of
cooler air will arrive as winds shift to northwest.

Main concern/uncertainty in the short term is the initation and
evolution of convection later this afternoon and overnight. Wind
shear is strong but instability not all that great. Forecast cinh
values remain fairly impressive this evening east of the Colorado
border so storm coverage is somewhat uncertain. Models struggle
to produce much in the way of storms this evening, especially for
areas further south, but as main shortwave swings out into Kansas
overnight models end up generating a band of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Thinking main threat is strong wind
gusts, but if an elevated supercell develops isolated large hail
cannot be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Upper low and associated trough/cold front will traverse the Plains
Saturday night into Sunday. The cold front will be just east of the
CWA by Sunday morning with strong CAA in the wake of the front as
we head through the day on Sunday. Highs will climb into the upper
60s. We could see frost especially in northwestern portions of the
CWA as temperatures fall into the upper 30s Sunday night with lows
otherwise generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The upper low will continue moving eastward into the upper
Mississippi valley on Monday, weakening the CAA into the region and
allowing afternoon high temperatures to rebound into the 70s. Winds
will shift gradually southward Monday evening and overnight into
Tuesday. A cut off low, situated over southern Arizona, will be
pulled into the pattern as we head into Tuesday afternoon. The left
over trough and associated warm front will push across the northern
most portions of the CWA late Wednesday night and into Thursday.
Slgt chc PoPs return to the forecast for areas mainly north of
Interstate 70 for Thursday afternoon and evening as this trough
traverses the region. Temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees
each afternoon Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

VFR both TAF sites through the period. Surface winds will
gust 30-35 kts from the south this afternoon and 20-30 kts from
the SSE this evening before shifting to NW 10-20 overnight.
Thunderstorms will develop in eastern CO and approach the TAF
sites this evening with best timing 00-04Z for KGLD and 04-08Z for
KMCK. Kept precip as VCTS both sites due to uncertainty of storm
coverage.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DLF



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