Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271954
FLZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271954Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SCNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS COULD
HAVE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD ACROSS ERN AND SRN FL. ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...SFC DEWPOINTS
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 90S F. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS SCNTRL
FL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. AS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...MOVES INLAND ACROSS SCNTRL FL...THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY CELL
ROTATION. IF CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE CAN OBTAIN SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE...THEN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS SCNTRL FL INCREASES.

..BROYLES/HART.. 03/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27248029 27558070 27368134 26318187 26018156 25948131
            26038077 26118053 26558013 26938014 27248029



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