Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 061701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061701
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-061930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...NORTHERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061701Z - 061930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND INTENSIFY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF VA AND MD THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.  A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA INTO NORTHERN NC...WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S.  DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND PWAT
VALUES OVER 1.75 IN ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG.  A REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...WITH A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER WESTERN
NC...BOTH POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.  THESE
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
AFTERNOON.

MODELS AND VAD PROFILES SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS WHERE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.  HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
TRANSIENT.

..HART/MEAD.. 07/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36597937 37517926 39487831 39657694 38387674 36587696
            36057827 36247906 36597937




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.