Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 172018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172018
SCZ000-GAZ000-172215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN SC AND ERN/SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172018Z - 172215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEW
POINTS AROUND 70 F AND PW AROUND 1.7 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/.  ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND -10 C 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR RAPID CLOUD
TOP COOLING WITH MOST OF THE STORM CELLS IN THIS REGION PER GOES-R
CLOUD TOP COOLING PRODUCT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IS
SUPPORTING SOME STORM ROTATION WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
BEING THE GREATEST THREATS WITH PRIMARILY PULSE-TYPE STORMS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A
SEWD MOVING BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND INTERACTIONS OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 09/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON   33548205 34008078 32767973 32318014 31808078 31568129
            31588170 32468225 33548205



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