Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 251139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251138
FLZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251138Z - 251315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER
THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITH A CORRESPONDING
UPTICK IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN A
STEADY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES.  THE
STORMS OVER MANATEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES ARE INVOF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMP/DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEG F TO
THE N AND MID 70S IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE STORMS.  A
STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
KMLB DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH BACKING NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENLARGEMENT IN HODOGRAPHS /200 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM
SRH/.  GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /REF. 00Z MFL RAOB/
CHARACTERIZED BY A 17 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY...STORM ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH A
LOW...BUT NOT INSIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.  WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27708273 28938087 27998053 26908236 27708273




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.