Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221816
NCZ000-VAZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern VA and northeastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221816Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Localized strong/gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
over the next hour or two. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.
Due to the marginal overall threat and small spatial/temporal nature
of the severe risk, watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A MCV that developed from earlier convection is located
over southeastern VA as of 18Z. A small band of thunderstorms
associated with the MCV circulation has recently developed across
part of southeastern VA and northeastern NC. Visible satellite
imagery shows clearing downstream of this activity, and temperatures
have generally warmed into the lower 80s, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. This moist low-level airmass and diurnal
heating have contributed to the development of weak instability
across this region, with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, even though
mid-level lapse rates remain poor. Given the linear nature of this
small band of convection, locally strong/gusty winds may occur over
the next hour or two as it moves eastward to the coast and then
offshore. In addition, a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
out with the MCV circulation itself given the veering wind profile
noted in the AKQ VWP, as well as recent velocity data from the AKQ
radar. Due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment and
small spatial/temporal nature of the  severe risk, watch issuance is
not expected.

..Gleason/Weiss.. 05/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   35947670 36247686 36947700 37117636 37017587 36587576
            36227564 35977610 35947670




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