Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 300244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300244
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-300415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
MISSOURI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...102...99...

Valid 300244Z - 300415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100, 102, 99 continues.

SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms
will persist for the next couple of hours across the region, with a
threat for damaging-wind gusts, a few instances of severe hail, and
a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have evolved into a mix of several
clusters and semi-discrete cells embedded within stratiform
precipitation this evening. Fostered by convergence along the
western edge of a southerly low-level jet, this broad area of
convection continues to spread northeast. While they will encounter
an increasingly narrow and less buoyant warm/moist sector south of a
warm front close to the Mississippi River, some opportunity still
exists for all severe hazards this evening. With this weak, yet
sufficient low-level buoyancy present, effective storm-relative
helicity around 200-300 m2/s2 remains favorable for low-level
mesocylogenesis. Indeed, recent KSGF data has depicted
brief/occasional tightening of rotation with cells over Texas and
Powell counties.

While some potential exists for cells currently near/north of Little
Rock to track into northeast Arkansas (outside of the current
watch), buoyancy will likely remain too limited for an organized
severe potential. Nonetheless, convective trends will be monitored
as cells approach this corridor.

..Picca.. 03/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36939045 36049114 34749201 34649241 34869261 37119233
            38639249 39099237 38779047 37889011 36939045



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