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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231352
OKZ000-TXZ000-231445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S-CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231352Z - 231445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL NEAR ADM CAPABLE OF ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS SEWD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. IF WEAKENING DOES NOT OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY
OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...PORTION OF CNTRL OK MCS HAS ACCELERATED S/SEWD WITH
INTENSE REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES AND HAIL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE
RECENTLY REPORTED. EXPECTATIONS WERE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE LLJ HAS COMMENCED DIMINISHING PER
FDR/FWS VWP DATA AND AS THE SUPERCELL CLUSTER SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT AT 700 MB. THE 00Z NSSL-WRF SIMULATED THIS
CLUSTER QUITE WELL AND SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY NOON.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE CLUSTER RIDING ALONG THE MUCAPE GRADIENT AND
DEVELOPING TOWARDS POTENTIALLY GREATER BUOYANCY...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER THIS CLUSTER MAY PERSIST WITH A SEVERE
THREAT EVEN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WANES.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34629674 34179584 33719581 33199605 32939674 33019718
            33199759 33719781 34129791 34439750 34629674

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