Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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500
ACUS11 KWNS 250019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250018
OHZ000-INZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 454...

VALID 250018Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 454 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA THIS
EVENING.  DECREASING LIGHTNING TRENDS AND GRADUAL STABILIZATION
SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TENDING TO
WANE...THOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 01Z.

DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING TRENDS ARE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN OH AND INDIANA.  THESE TRENDS SUGGEST THE
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS LIKELY PEAKED ACROSS WW
454...SUGGESTING MUCH OF THIS WATCH SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 01Z.

DESPITE THOSE FACTORS...RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN TO EASTERN INDIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OH
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN
25 KT PER VAD AT IND/ILN AND DTX/ SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS
FOR THE SHORT TERM /01-02Z/.  THIS THREAT SHOULD WANE FURTHER /AFTER
02Z/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES.

THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM ALLEN COUNTY INDIANA TO GRANT AND CLINTON
COUNTIES.  THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING MCV...NOW MOVING
EAST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOWER MI/INDIANA BORDER.  SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY FURTHER AIDING IN THE REDUCTION IN CU
DEVELOPMENT WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

..PETERS.. 08/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40288701 40498589 41148520 41638461 41718391 40698385
            40588440 40028475 39348479 39138557 39038619 38998669
            39228706 39938706 40288701




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