Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230931
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-231030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH EXTREME NERN OK AND NWRN
THROUGH NCNTRL ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230931Z - 231030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES
OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING FROM
SWRN MO THROUGH EXTREME NERN OK INTO NWRN AND NCNTRL ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
FROM SWRN MO THROUGH EXTREME NERN OK MOVING SEWD AT 30-35 KT. THE
NEAR-SFC LAYER IS MOIST BUT STABLE. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY
REMAINS ABOVE THE MODEST SFC INVERSION WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE
INDICATED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. A 25-30 KT SWLY LLJ
INTERACTING WITH THE SEWD-ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SEWD DEVELOPMENT OF MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME WHICH /IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RELATIVELY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND BY 14Z. IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A
THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS RECENTLY REPORTED
BY A JOPLIN MO SFC OBSERVATION.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36779409 37009337 37349278 36479172 35629161 35319317
            36519486 36779409




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