Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241525
OKZ000-KSZ000-241730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241525Z - 241730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE
OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING ALONG A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE IN S-CNTRL/ERN KS INTO CNTRL OK.
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z LAMONT OK RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AMIDST LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
MODERATE BUOYANCY AIDED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9.0 C/KM.
CONTINUED PRE-FRONTAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOOST
BUOYANCY. AND...AS ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL PV MAX
CROSSING KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERTAKES THE
PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE EWD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE TULSA VWP INDICATES 50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS CONTRIBUTING
TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SOME SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL. DESPITE AT
LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A WEAKNESS IN THE 2-3-KM FLOW MAY
PROVE DELETERIOUS FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF MORE SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS. UNTIL CONSOLIDATION OF THE SFC CYCLONE OCCURS...CONFIDENCE
IN GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37729615 38119520 37299487 36339505 35669546 35469626
            35879684 37729615



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