Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271913
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271913Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION SHORTLY
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING
FROM JUST W OF PYX SWD TO SW OF PPA IN THE FAR NW TX PANHANDLE. THIS
CU APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF
A WEAK MOISTURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH RECENT
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG. OVERALL KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES OVER 40 KT. WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED...A WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   37159968 36259929 35049950 34419986 34710119 35450134
            36950109 37159968



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