Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012005
AZZ000-012230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ARIZONA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012005Z - 012230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
TOO MINIMAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE SERN AZ
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN
ASCENT PRECEDING A SALIENT ELY WAVE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...MID-LEVEL UPWARD MOTION TODAY IS MORE NEUTRAL. AS
SUCH...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO TERRAIN-DRIVEN
CIRCULATIONS...WITH LESSER TSTM/SVR-TSTM COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS...SOME INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SUFFICIENT MONSOON-RELATED MOISTURE
AND SFC HEATING SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE
STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EMX VWP IS SAMPLING ENHANCED /20-30 KT/ MID-LEVEL ELYS/SELYS WITHIN
A TIGHTENED HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT-BASIN AREA ANTICYCLONE
AND A CYCLONE WELL SW OF THE CA COAST. DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY THIS
FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES...WITH DEEP PBL MIXING/LARGE DCAPE ENCOURAGING STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS POTENTIALLY BECOMING LOCALLY SVR. ALSO...A FEW
INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY OF THE
MORE DISCRETE...WEAKLY ROTATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS -- PARTICULARLY
WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE DEEP SHEAR IS
STRONGEST. HOWEVER...AREA-WIDE...SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED
FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   31551176 32581204 33361268 34361410 35461422 35701292
            35481109 34760965 33240920 31570935 31321018 31551176




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