Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251717
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AR...NRN MS...NW/N-CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 251717Z - 252115Z

SUMMARY...AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM SW AR EWD INTO N-CNTRL AL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS TRANSITION...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SE AR AND FAR NE LA IS SNOW WHILE PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS
FARTHER E IS STILL RAIN -- I.E. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS ROUGHLY THE MS
RIVER. THIS RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AS THE
MID-LEVELS COOL IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL TX. ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EWD...THE SYSTEM WILL TREND TOWARDS A MORE NEUTRAL OR POSSIBLY
A SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT. RESULTANT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW -- SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER
HOUR -- ONCE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. BEST ESTIMATES PLACE
THIS TRANSITION LINE OVER CNTRL MS BY 19Z AND NW AL BY 21Z. GIVEN
THE SENSITIVITY OF PRECIP TYPE CHANGES TO SMALL TEMPERATURE
CHANGES...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS PROBABLE BEFORE A TRUE
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

..MOSIER/DARROW.. 02/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34229198 34539035 34718886 34728758 34698732 34648696
            34558678 34358666 34058674 33658694 33118743 32858779
            32828801 32648903 32668993 32659137 32689213 33089284
            33459288 33809272 34229198



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