Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290550
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-290715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Areas affected...southern Indiana...northwest to northeast
Kentucky...and southwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 290550Z - 290715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe-weather threat should continue through
the early overnight in vicinity of the Ohio River from far southern
IN and adjacent northern Kentucky counties into far south-central
Ohio.  Primary risks should be isolated strong wind gusts and hail.
WW 170 and WW 171 will be allowed to expire at 06Z.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery across far southern IN,
northern tier of KY into south-central OH indicated a composite
(generally east-west oriented) outflow boundary was located south of
much of the ongoing storms across this region.  Residual moderate
instability and strong effective bulk shear oriented parallel to the
surface boundary suggest line segments will be the primary storm
mode.  These primarily elevated linear structures within the
extensive band of storms extending from far southern IL/IN and
adjacent northern KY spreading into far southern OH will persist
through 08-10Z, prior to expected weakening of low-level warm air
advection.  This latter occurrence is expected as a strong 50+ kt
850-mb jet extending from southwest into central KY translates
eastward, while low-level flow across the discussion area veers and
weakens.  The overall diminishing of stronger forcing for ascent
overnight should result in a decreasing trend in the potential for
stronger sustained storms, precluding the need for a new watch.

..Peters/Guyer.. 04/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38368773 38868620 39178473 39578339 39338216 38648237
            38368357 38188447 37858587 37668710 37558789 38368773



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