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ACUS11 KWNS 241943
SPC MCD 241942

Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Areas affected...Portions of NM and far south-central CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241942Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally
damaging winds should persist through early evening. Watch issuance
is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Beneath upper ridging centered over northern Mexico and
the Southwest, persistent weak low-level easterly flow across NM and
south-central CO is encouraging initially isolated convective
development across west-central NM. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop across NM this afternoon aided by terrain-driven
circulations. Visible satellite imagery shows almost total clearing
along and west of the central mountain chain of NM, and temperatures
have warmed into the 80s and lower 90s across lower terrain. Modest
low-level moisture characterized by upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints
is present across this region, and combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates and diurnal heating, MLCAPE generally ranging 500-1000
J/kg has developed. Although mid-level northwesterly winds weaken
with southern extent across NM, there is sufficient mid-level flow
to support mainly 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear. This should be
sufficient to weakly organize thunderstorm updrafts, and isolated
instances of large hail and strong to locally damaging winds may
occur with any thunderstorms across this region through the
remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the early evening.
There may be some potential for loosely organized convective
clusters to develop and move southeastward across western/central
NM, perhaps posing a slightly greater wind threat with time.
Regardless, the overall severe threat will likely remain too
isolated to warrant watch issuance due to the marginal
thermodynamic/kinematic environment.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/24/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


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