Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 310715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310715
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-311015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SC AND ADJACENT EASTERN GA COASTAL AREA TO
SOUTHEAST NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 310715Z - 311015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH 10-11Z.  HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR A POTENTIAL NON-ZERO/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT DURING THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NNE
ACROSS WESTERN SC INTO SOUTHWEST NC PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL
BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN INTO NC DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY
MORNING...RESULTING IN WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS.  DESPITE THIS
WEAKENING/DECAYING SYSTEM...THERE APPEARS TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/TSTM POTENTIAL.  THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS OCCURRENCE SHOULD REMAIN IN VICINITY OF
A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE GA COAST INTO SOUTHEAST SC AT A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND THEN
EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INLAND AND GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
SC/NC COAST.

THE WEAKENING KINEMATICS SUGGEST THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW INTO THE EARLY MORNING /10-11Z/.
HOWEVER...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /PW VALUES AT OR EXCEEDING 2
INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST/ COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 08/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   31588121 31988122 32808090 33378039 33817977 34557897
            34717849 34557802 34127826 33817892 33497946 32918006
            32708039 32418061 31608066 31348078 31588121



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