Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 060601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060601
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-060630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD / NWRN IA / EXTREME SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393...

VALID 060601Z - 060630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND THE ERN BOUND OF
SEVERE WATCH 393.

DISCUSSION...KFSD RADAR SHOWED RAPID TORNADOGENESIS WITH A
MESOVORTEX AROUND 0520Z /PER 50 KT ROTATIONAL VELOCITY AND CC
MINIMUM/ AS A GUST FRONT FROM LEADING CONVECTION OVER SWRN MN/SERN
SD INTERSECTED THE BOWING SEGMENT.  THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV IN THE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION NEAR THE KEYA PAHA COUNTY NEB/TRIPP
COUNTY SD BORDER.  AS THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO MOVE E/SEWD ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA...AN APPRECIABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ AMIDST A VEERING FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT THE NOTION FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY.
THE PRIMARY WIND DAMAGE RISK WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOWING SEGMENT AND ANY SUBSEQUENT MESOVORTICES THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP.  AS A RESULT OF THIS EXPECTED RISK...A WATCH
EXTENSION-IN-AREA OR A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE
EVOLVING THREAT.

..SMITH.. 07/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   43519714 43709622 43819534 43349498 42879548 42719625
            42769726 43519714




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