Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241813
ARZ000-OKZ000-242015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND WRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241813Z - 242015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN OK. FRONTAL ASCENT AND STRONG
DCVA PRECEDING A PV MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN EWD PROGRESSION
OF ONGOING CONVECTION.  DESPITE CAPPING EVIDENT IN THE 12Z OUN
RAOB...ALSO SIGNALED BY STANDING WAVE CLOUD FORMATIONS/BILLOWS OVER
THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS...DIURNAL PRE-FRONTAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AN EROSION OF ANTECEDENT MLCINH WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. AS SUCH...FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...PREFRONTAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT -- MAXIMIZED INVOF A REMNANT/DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ANALYZED FROM SERN OK TO CNTRL/S-CNTRL AR -- MAY CONTINUE TO BOLSTER
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR AS
SFC WINDS VEER TO THE SSW /PER RECENT OBS/ AND SUPPORT THE INFLUX OF
RICHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY. GIVEN FAST MID-LEVEL
FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   36289461 36429343 35889243 34379234 33789306 33859433
            34399514 35659509 36289461



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