Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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641
ACUS11 KWNS 062020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062019
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-062245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...CENTRAL/SRN MN...NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062019Z - 062245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z REVEALED A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MN. THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST...AND
LIE FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY
00Z/7 PM CDT.

STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AVERAGING IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLD
FRONT...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR
THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. DESPITE GENERALLY
WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY...CONTINUED HEATING AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR LOCALLY
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...HOWEVER THE
EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND BRIEF TIME FRAME SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WATCH.

..BUNTING/HART.. 05/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44369708 45179489 45669357 46239224 46339130 45929102
            45099168 44179352 43799488 43359674 43259838 43879847
            44369708




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