Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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263
ACUS11 KWNS 261813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261813
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261813Z - 262015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE
INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
HOUR...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  INSTABILITY IS
VERY STRONG IN THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG
SUGGESTIVE OF A HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME
GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.  ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VORTICITY INGEST OF ANY ISOLATED
UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  GENERALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LESSENED EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA...WITH GENERALLY HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION
EXPECTED THAT WILL CONTAIN A HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.

..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34750057 36290086 37180087 37830067 38269991 38269958
            37779911 37059874 36499863 35919854 35389863 34839878
            34489927 34399982 34420017 34750057




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