Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010307
AZZ000-010430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND CNTRL ARIZONA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...

VALID 010307Z - 010430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY STILL INCREASE WITH
VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...PERHAPS ALSO SPREADING TOWARD THE PHOENIX METRO AREA
TOWARD 05-06Z.

DISCUSSION...EXPANDING/COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT WITH
INCREASING AND INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE TUCSON
AREA.  THIS MAY CORRESPOND TO SUPPORT FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MIGRATING MID/UPPER WAVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH THE 04-06 TIME
FRAME...AIDED BY INFLOW OF NEAR SURFACE AIR STILL CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATELY LARGE CAPE.  WITH TIME...IT ALSO SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE SUBSTANTIVE AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL.  AIDED BY 20-40 EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW THIS COLD POOL SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER
DESERTS...NEAR THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER...WHERE THE VERY WARM TO
HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GUST FRONT.
STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WHICH COULD ALSO
SPREAD TOWARD THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA.

..KERR.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   31671191 31941286 32021335 32161397 33071321 33651227
            32611071 32051082 31701105 31671191




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