Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231755
WAZ000-ORZ000-232000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND VICINITY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN WA/FAR NWRN ORE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231755Z - 232000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG SPEED MAX IN THE BASE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NWRN WA IS ENHANCING DEEP SHEAR
AS SAMPLED BY THE RTX VWP. THIS VWP INDICATES A
WAA/VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENHANCING
LOW-LEVEL SRH...AND SUPPORTING 30 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. SFC
OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE SFC
FLOW...FAVORING INLAND PENETRATION OF MARGINAL PBL-ROOTED
BUOYANCY -- I.E. MLCAPE LOCALLY REACHING 150 J/KG -- AS DEWPOINTS
AROUND 50F GRAZE COASTAL AREAS. AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM 40-50 NM OFFSHORE...THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING BRIEFLY ORGANIZED/PERHAPS
WEAKLY SUPERCELLULAR -- AS EVIDENCED WITH WEAK/CYCLONIC STORM-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS THAT CROSSED PACIFIC/WAHKIAKUM COUNTIES. A STRONG WIND
GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PQR...

LAT...LON   46462403 46612378 46552354 46062355 45652372 45652396
            46282403 46462403



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