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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 161047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161046
LAZ000-TXZ000-161245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL PLAIN...W-CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161046Z - 161245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SEWD TOWARDS THE TX COAST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM LRD
NEWD TO IER. RADAR TRENDS SHOW TSTMS INITIATING ALONG AND N OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT PUSHES SWD TOWARDS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY
IN FAR E TX APPEARS TO BE SURFACE-BASED WITH A RESULTANT ORIENTATION
MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR FOR A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER W...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING RESULTANT FROM VORT MAX APPROACHING FROM NRN MEXICO.
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 50 KT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 03/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27679977 28359953 30059678 30839471 31729366 31529306
            31129285 30309345 28969594 27479854 27679977

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