573
ACUS11 KWNS 111718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111718
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southern/central IA into northern
MO...western IL...and far southwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 111718Z - 111845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected later today, with a
threat of a few tornadoes, scattered damaging wind, and hail. Watch
issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has been ongoing this morning
across parts of central/eastern IA. This convection is helping to
reinforce a baroclinic zone across southern IA and northern MO, with
a surface low expected to move eastward along the baroclinic zone
this afternoon. As a convectively enhanced shortwave trough (with
multiple embedded vorticity maxima) moves across the region,
surface-based storm development is expected this afternoon within
the baroclinic zone and near the surface low.

Relatively strong heating of a richly moist airmass will result in
moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing into the
1500-3000 J/kg range. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some
initial supercell potential, with a tendency for storm clustering
possible with time. Favorably veering low-level wind profiles near
the surface low and baroclinic zone could support tornado potential
with any initial supercell development, along with some threat for
damaging wind and hail. The damaging-wind threat may increase with
time in association with any notable upscale growth. Watch issuance
is likely this afternoon in order to cover these threats.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
OAX...

LAT...LON   40079261 40129363 40139517 40379529 40819530 41199521
            41569442 42409187 42859055 42808978 42428927 41798917
            40538955 40049020 39989068 39979113 40039205 40079261

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN