Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 170750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170750
MOZ000-KSZ000-170915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170750Z - 170915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE TO
OCCASIONAL HAIL AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING FROM ERN KS INTO WRN AND
SWRN MO. A WW CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN
KS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER ERN KS AND WRN MO NEXT
FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY IS INITIATING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING
VORT MAX AND WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NE
OF A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NCNTRL KS SEWD THROUGH ERN OK.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS
MUCH OF KS...AND THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A 35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL
PROMOTE A GRADUAL EWD DESTABILIZATION INTO WRN MO THIS MORNING. BOTH
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 700-500 MB...BUT WITH A SMALL INVERSION AROUND 500 MB.
EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
A THREAT OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39499569 39129381 38089250 36899250 36619383 37859575
            39029668 39499569



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