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ACUS11 KWNS 222346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222345
ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-230215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN CA...CENTRAL/SRN ORE...NWRN NV.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222345Z - 230215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
NNEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.  THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF MID-UPPER
TROUGH DESCRIBED BELOW.  MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
KLAMATH MOUNTAINS OF NWRN CA AND WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STG SFC HEATING
AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE OVER NWRN NV.  ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT IS BEING AIDED FURTHER BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT RELATED TO
NEWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN CA.  COMBINATION OF THESE EFFECTS
WILL MAINTAIN STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES IN PRECONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHILE SFC DEW POINTS CONTINUE IN MID-40S TO MID-50S F
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS YIELD
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VARIES WITH DEPTH OF
CAPE...WHICH REGULATES LAYER THROUGH WHICH SHEAR IS COMPUTED.
HOWEVER...MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT ARE ESTIMATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
ORE AND NWRN NV...GENERALLY DECREASING FARTHER SW WHERE BUOYANT
LAYER IS SHALLOWER.  WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL/GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED TO SFC.

..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...STO...MFR...EKA...

LAT...LON   41242345 42812254 43762148 44572062 44781941 44501848
            43841797 42231855 41381872 39571883 38891927 39321993
            40672073 41302139 41002264 40652274 40002284 40432325
            41002348 41242345

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