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000
ACUS11 KWNS 050154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050153
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX...NE TX AND SW AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 050153Z - 050800Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING FROM NCNTRL TX ENEWD INTO SW AR. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD REACH A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITHIN
THE HEAVIER BANDS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAINS NEWD INTO NCNTRL AR. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
COLD AIRMASS IS SETTLING SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE FREEZING
LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM LITTLE ROCK AR WSWWD TO NEAR
DALLAS/FORT WORTH. THE AREA SOUTH OF FORT WORTH IS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
TOP OF THE COLD AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT
THE SFC WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE MCD
AREA. ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE...SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE DEPTH
OF THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER DEEPENS ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

..BROYLES.. 03/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33389296 33569237 33909207 34219198 34539210 34709246
            34649330 33969554 33459764 33079844 32419863 31689801
            31649735 32299572 33389296