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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 091654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091653
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-091930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...SRN VT...WRN CT...FAR NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091653Z - 091930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PA...NRN NJ...MUCH OF NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NW PA. SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE
GENERALLY SW TO WSWLY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. SFC
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F. CONTINUED
SFC HEATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
AND SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. AS LAPSE RATES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. THE THREAT
MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND CELL MERGERS.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40367686 39867937 40898053 42007950 43727486 43887390
            43707323 43327279 42817268 42187300 41447423 40367686

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