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000
ACUS11 KWNS 220014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220013
TXZ000-220145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 220013Z - 220145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRYLINE STORMS INTO
THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SMALL ...BUT
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO APPROACH SAN
ANTONIO WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS GENERALLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RECENT STORM MERGER EAST OF
JUNCTION.  GIVEN MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY SYSTEM RELATIVELY
INFLOW...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA BY 02-03Z.
PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INFLOW OF
UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE
BEFORE REACHING SAN ANTONIO.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE...AND THE RISK FOR A DAMAGING DOWNBURST
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE INCREASING.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30510093 30820064 30989953 31229848 31749752 32249723
            32449686 32059647 31109730 30479805 30269814 29959813
            29409839 29329877 29369932 30049974 30510093

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