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000
ACUS11 KWNS 062219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062219
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0419 PM CST FRI DEC 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS...CENTRAL AND SRN
AL...NWRN GA AND WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062219Z - 070015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY-SCTD SHOWERS/LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL GULF STATES. THE STRONGEST STORMS
HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK ROTATION...AND MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A FEW STG WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 22Z REVEALED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS EXTREME NWRN GA...SRN
LA...AND INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EWD
MOVEMENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SEGMENT OF THE FRONT...RELATIVELY
LITTLE MOVEMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SEVERAL HOURS. DIURNAL HEATING
OF A MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE
OF 500 TO LOCALLY 750 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG WITH
MINIMAL INHIBITION. TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS MOSTLY BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST WIDELY-SCTD SFC-BASED SHOWER AND LOW-TOPPED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ECHO TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY AT OR BELOW 25
THOUSAND FEET.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD-MOVING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION WILL LARGELY REMAIN N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...BUT MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND PRE-FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STG WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OWING TO
MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR RISK HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS/BUNTING/HART.. 12/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31468922 32738724 33928549 34458462 34418424 33828406
            32368499 31098607 30488690 30378787 30178892 30088994
            30809028 31468922