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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231211
FLZ000-231415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF BAY...GULF...AND WRN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231211Z - 231415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN GULF INTO WRN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES.  WATERSPOUTS COULD THREATEN THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF BAY COUNTY...THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS LATTER OCCURRENCE IS
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO GULF AND WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES.  THE LIMITED
SPATIAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OVER
GULF/WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES PRECLUDES THE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 12Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS EXTENDING FROM ERN BAY COUNTY SWWD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO /75 NM S PNS/...WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS EAST OF
THE BROKEN LINE SHOWING PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED SOME ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROKEN
LINE...WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS WELL
INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR BVE WITH A
MARINE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
/APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SE PNS/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN REMAINING
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SEWD TO THE SOUTH OF BUOYS SG0F1 AND 42036.
MEANWHILE...THE DISCRETE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING
NEWD NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE.

TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONS HAVE TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS MAINTAINING A HOSTILE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE-BASED.  IF THE MARINE BOUNDARY CAN
REACH COASTAL AREAS OF GULF AND/OR WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES BEFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS AND CONFLUENCE ZONE EACH MOVE EWD THIS MORNING...THEN
WATERSPOUTS COULD POSE A THREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 01/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30118565 30178556 30058538 29848515 29818487 29598483
            29538508 29548537 29658550 29838559 29948577 30118565