Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232207
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-240000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OH/SOUTHEAST LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232207Z - 240000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OH THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH A LIMITED SEVERE RISK ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI
IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN A SPATIALLY NARROW/MODEST MOISTURE-QUALITY WARM
SECTOR...WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 750-1250
J/KG MLCAPE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR
THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX
WITHIN THE BASE OF A NORTHWEST ONTARIO-CENTERED UPPER TROUGH. WHILE
PREFRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND MODEST BUOYANCY/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LIMITING FACTORS...STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR/GLANCING
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUSTAIN SOME STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH...A LIMITED SEVERE RISK MAY ALSO EXIST IN THE
SHORT-TERM ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL RISK AS PER WSR-88D
VWP DATA FROM DETROIT...AGAIN...PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND MODEST
MOISTURE /LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE
LIMITING FACTORS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON   40908497 41538447 42328371 42898324 42968247 41968277
            41458193 40728189 40218318 40428473 40908497



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