Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 192313
SPC MCD 192312

Mesoscale Discussion 0190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/western/northern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192312Z - 200145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop northward/eastward
through the evening hours, and an isolated/marginal severe risk
could evolve. Watch issuance will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms from parts of central/western TX into
southwest OK will continue to develop northward/eastward during the
next several hours. This will occur as midlevel height falls
continue overspreading the region amidst modest 850-700-mb warm
advection. Convection over southwest OK already is assuming somewhat
disorganized/cluster-type convective modes. This is consistent with
multiple subtle inflections in the hodograph representing deep
meridional flow indicated by the FDR VAD wind profile. With around
50-55 kt of deep shear, and modest strengthening of low-level shear
profiles through the evening, a few briefly severe storms could
occur. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with
this activity. Convective interference owing to increasingly
numerous thunderstorm development, coupled with a relatively more
dry/stable boundary layer compared to points south, should greatly
minimize the severe risk.

..Cohen/Thompson.. 02/19/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36609745 35239730 34889750 34899812 35319867 35979890
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