Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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249
ACUS11 KWNS 231517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231516
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-231645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid Missouri Valley and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231516Z - 231645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of small/near-severe hail may be possible
through the early afternoon hours across the mid Missouri Valley and
extending northeast. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...On the nose of a south/southwesterly 850-700 mb jet,
thunderstorms have organized across far northeastern Nebraska,
southeastern South Dakota, and northwestern Iowa. This elevated
activity should persist and evolve east/northeastward over the next
few hours, in tandem with warm advection related to the low-level
jet. Upstream 12Z soundings at OAX/LBF sampled steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates on the order of 8 deg C/km. While this is associated
with dry mid-level air that may enhance dry-air entrainment in new
updrafts, those that can sustain themselves will be aided by 30-35
kts of effective shear. As such, some threat for small to
brief/marginally severe hail will exist with these cells as they
develop east/northeast in conjunction with elevated instability.

..Picca/Hart.. 03/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   43769392 43109377 42349547 42409619 42569689 42899758
            43309809 43619811 44199744 44299644 44249511 44179437
            43889402 43769392




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