Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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016 ACUS11 KWNS 111901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111901 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112030- Mesoscale Discussion 1643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...Northeast KS into northern MO and west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111901Z - 112030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storm development is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening this afternoon near a cold front across extreme northeast KS into northwest MO, and also farther east into the Kansas City area. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across eastern NE/western IA will support scattered storm development with time along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. While deep-layer shear is relatively modest, strong to extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) will support vigorous updrafts, with an initial threat of isolated hail and damaging wind. Southwesterly 25-35 kt flow in the 850-700 mb layer could eventually support development of one or more small clusters or bowing segments, with an increasing threat of damaging wind. Watch issuance is likely this afternoon in order to cover these threats. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39459572 39719574 40089566 40339547 40439500 40089478 40029367 40149179 40139032 39859009 39339010 39149108 38619277 38579341 38359520 38679541 39099561 39459572 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN