Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020121
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136...

VALID 020121Z - 020315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THEREAFTER...CELLS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ROBUST SUPERCELLS ARE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. RECENT
KIND VWP DATA DEPICT A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CYCLONIC
ROTATION...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO VIGOROUS WESTERLY
FLOW AT/ABOVE 6 KM AGL. FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL ZDR ARC SIGNATURES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...DEPICTING RAIN DROP SIZE SORTING WITHIN A
VEERING STORM-RELATIVE WIND PROFILE. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES.

FARTHER EAST...A NORTHWARD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
INITIATING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO. MOST
LIKELY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALTER THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE INDIANA CELLS MOVING EAST WILL WEAKEN OVER
TIME. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LOW SFC DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS SUCH...DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

..PICCA.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38838812 40358693 40518525 40348370 40008299 38858311
            38818386 38818484 38418645 38258773 38418819 38638822
            38838812




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