Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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353
ACUS11 KWNS 251716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251716
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-251845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Areas affected...central and eastern NY...eastern PA...much of NJ
and northern DE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251716Z - 251845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms is expected to track quickly eastward
across central and eastern NY, eastern PA and into northern DE and
NJ this afternoon and early evening. Some isolated strong cells
could produce strong/damaging wind gusts. Trends will be monitored
for possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection along/just ahead of the eastward
advancing cold front has been increasing in intensity over the last
30 minutes or so. Downstream, the airmass has warmed into the 60s to
lower 70s in broken cloudiness with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s. This has allowed weak destabilization to occur, with
mesoanalysis indicating around 500 J/kg SBCAPE across the region.
Some additional destabilization is possible through the afternoon,
which should further aid in storm organization and intensification
over the next several hours. Strong deep layer shear parallel to the
front will favor line segments with perhaps some bowing in stronger
segments. While thermodynamics are unimpressive, fast storm motion
in conjunction with strong shear profiles may result in some
strong/damaging gusts. Modest lapse rates and lack of stronger
instability should limit large hail potential, though some small
hail is possible in strongest cells. Trends will be monitored and a
watch may be needed within the next couple of hours if
intensification continues. .

..Leitman/Hart.. 02/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   43447639 43957559 44187474 44167399 44007352 42927364
            41787387 40377440 39857466 39587542 39557582 40017678
            40967700 42337671 43447639




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