Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241542
NCZ000-SCZ000-241645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241542Z - 241645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONE OR TWO TORNADOES MAY EVOLVE WITHIN STRONGER SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINA REGION INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LONG-LOOP RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS REMNANT MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS MIGRATED ACROSS WRN NC/VA INTO THE NRN CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION.  AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF LIGHTNING-FREE
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING SWD TO
NEAR ILM WHERE DEEP CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING IS NOTED.  IT APPEARS
SRN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
UPWARD GROWTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE SFC DEW
POINTS ARE NOW RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 60S.  STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTS
DEEP ROTATION AS EVIDENT BY EVOLVING SUPERCELLS OVER BRUNSWICK
COUNTY NC.  THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
COULD EVOLVE WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AS TAIL END OF STRONGER
FORCING/CONVERGENCE TRANSLATE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS REGION.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 12/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   33588004 35867779 35817598 34747614 33097793 33588004



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