Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 151434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151434
NCZ000-VAZ000-151630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC...SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151434Z - 151630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ERN NC AND SERN VA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OR
PERHAPS A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO COULD OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A N-S ORIENTED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY EWD...IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 40+ KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG
PER MORNING MHX RAOB...RELATIVELY BACKED SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE SHEAR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONGER LIVED
STORMS...PERHAPS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES. ONE
PARTICULAR CELL APPROACHING KEDE HAS SHOWN WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AT
TIMES...BUT NOTHING TO INDICATE A TORNADO AS OF YET. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A BRIEF TIGHTENING OF
CIRCULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

..JEWELL/HART.. 04/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   34467687 36417691 36887677 36917590 36117554 35727542
            35367536 35167556 34857605 34467687



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