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000
ACUS11 KWNS 141941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141940
KSZ000-MOZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Central into northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 141940Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to form by 21-22Z over parts of
central Kansas, with increasing coverage by late afternoon and
evening into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows CU beginning to form along a
pre-frontal trough across central KS where a narrow plume of strong
heating persists. This area of heating lies just north of an
extensive midlevel moist plume extending from the TX Panhandle into
northeastern KS, also coincident with the western fringe of a 40 kt
low-level jet and acting as an effective warm front. Showers are
also beginning to consolidate into more intense cores within this
moist plume.

As the cold front continues to develop southeastward, storms should
form along it, and also invigorate the leading storms currently
extending from near Wichita to Kansas City. Initially, supercells
are possible, with long hodographs favoring damaging hail and winds.
As the front deepens with time, storms will consolidate into a
squall line, with strong shear oriented parallel to the boundary
possibly resulting in a QLCS.

..Jewell/Hart.. 10/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38869766 39149703 39479614 39669516 39639494 39459478
            39209466 38899467 38599474 38339513 38109570 37599677
            37229744 37059797 37059865 37139892 37309901 37579911
            37809908 38159895 38259864 38649798 38869766