Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270055
OKZ000-270230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...

VALID 270055Z - 270230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LIKELY EXISTS ACROSS/NEAR NRN
PORTIONS OF WW 225...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
CURRENTLY FOCUSING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION /THE FOCUS OF WHICH IS PROGRESSING NWD WITH TIME/ OVER
BLAINE AND MAJOR COUNTIES. TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...SUGGEST THE ORIENTATION OF A WWD-MOVING
BOUNDARY IS THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THIS NWD INITIATION WITH TIME. THE
SHEAR PROFILE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING
UPDRAFTS...WITH LEFT-MOVERS HAVING A HISTORY OF RELATIVELY EFFICIENT
HAIL PRODUCTION. WITH THE PRESENCE OF 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND ROBUST BUOYANCY IN THE MID-LEVELS...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN
THESE STRONGER CORES SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
INDEED...THE LATEST KVNX DATA ILLUSTRATE AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER ROBUST HAIL CORE /DUAL-POL DATA SUGGEST
SIDELOBE CONTAMINATION AROUND 20-25K FT/ OVER ERN MAJOR CO.

HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS INSOLATION WANES AND CIN INCREASES.

..PICCA.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   36959809 36859735 36109718 35019731 34339750 34449835
            34749902 36299861 36949819 36959809



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