Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 022346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022346
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386...

VALID 022346Z - 030115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH
CNTRL OK NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. AT THE CURRENT TIME...A WW SOUTH OF WW
386 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES CAN BE ADDED
TO THE CURRENT WW AS NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN OK IN VICINITY OF
AN E-W FRONT. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SWWD WITHIN A GENERALLY MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY MULTICELLS.
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER /30-40 KT/ AND SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES REMAIN
POSSIBLE. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE
ALONG WITH 6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS CNTRL OK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORMS MIGHT REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST 02Z...AFTER WHICH LOSS OF DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN
A GRADUAL DECREASE.

..DIAL.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36809983 36499847 36359638 36409494 36389408 35829371
            35079421 34749512 34709691 35289895 36460033 36809983



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