Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 022229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022229
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SERN NEW YORK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022229Z - 030000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BRIEF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT MUCH OF
THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK CITY BETWEEN NOW
AND 00-02Z.  THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...AT
BEST...TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS COULD
NEVERTHELESS PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ADVANCING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REMAINS A FOCUS FOR RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIVE UPSCALE GROWTH OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY SEEMS
UNLIKELY...AT LEAST A NARROW LINE OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE
PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SHORT AFTER 23Z...AND
PERHAPS THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY AREA NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 01Z.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 09/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   41567655 41957612 42137471 41477357 40777329 39397448
            39207570 39457622 39907603 40807616 41567655



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