Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270630
TXZ000-270730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU / TX BIG COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270630Z - 270730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE EXPECTED COVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SW-NE BAND OF INTENSIFYING STORMS
FROM NEAR SJT TO 45 MI W MWL.  A RECENT 42-KT GUST WAS OBSERVED AT
0555Z AT KSWW.  88D VAD DATA SHOW A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND 25-40 KT H85 FLOW FROM THE S IS ACTING TO
RETURN A MODEST INCREASE IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF TWO TSTM COMPLEXES OVER S-CNTRL TX AND SRN PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL TX.  PROCESSED OUTFLOW LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY IS
LIKELY EMANATING FROM THESE COMPLEXES W AND NWWD TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPING LOOSE BAND OF INTENSIFYING STORMS.  YET...STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES PER THE 00Z DRT AND MAF RAOBS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN VIGOR FOR SOME TIME BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS TO THE E.  IN SUMMARY...A MARGINAL
SEVERE-HAIL THREAT AND STRONG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   31520107 33089910 33159808 32329782 30949943 30840069
            31520107




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