Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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616 ACUS11 KWNS 131942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131941 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-132115- Mesoscale Discussion 1662 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern VA...central MD...the eastern WV Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131941Z - 132115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind remains possible through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Earlier convection across MD and eastern VA has generated a westward-moving outflow approaching central VA. Meanwhile, other storms have developed this afternoon along/east of the Blue Ridge. Deep-layer flow is quite weak across the region, resulting in generally disorganized storms. However, strong heating of a very moist airmass (PW around 2 inches) has resulted in MLCAPE increasing above 3000 J/kg in areas outside of convective outflow. The large PW and favorable buoyancy will support a threat of localized wet microbursts, both with storms along the westward-moving outflow, and the storms moving slowly eastward off of the Blue Ridge. Outflow collisions may result in brief upticks in storm intensity through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37087924 37287915 38457862 39607818 39677813 39657761 39627756 38717763 37807778 37437785 36807772 36917839 36877871 36787934 37087924 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH