Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 040250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040250
LAZ000-040445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0850 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040250Z - 040445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...VERY LIMITED SEVERE RISK OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY/SPREAD EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF 7R5 (CAMERON LA)...WITH A COLD
FRONT NOW OFF THE TX COAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LA COASTLINE.  THE
EVENING LCH (LAKE CHARLES) RAOB REVEALS VERY LITTLE INLAND CAPE...AND
A VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE INLAND
LIGHTNING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME CONFIRMS THE WEAK CAPE WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT...AND THUS LITTLE IF ANY HAIL RISK IS EVIDENT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY RISK FOR DOWNDRAFTS REACHING SURFACE TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PARISHES.

WITH TIME...SOME SMALL NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT COULD
OCCUR INTO SOUTHEAST LA...AND THE LATEST NCEP HRRR DOES INDICATE A
FEW STRONGER CELLS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND
TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...LIMITED TORNADO THREAT COULD ADVANCE A BIT
FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO.  HOWEVER...SUCH RISK
WOULD APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY TO INCREASE TO THE EXTENT THAT A WATCH
WOULD BE CONSIDERED THIS EVENING.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 12/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29639331 29999298 30059217 30019075 29879017 29499003
            28999016 28979084 29419194 29489266 29639331




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