Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 302003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302002
MOZ000-ARZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCNTRL ARKANSAS THROUGH SCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302002Z - 302200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN/NCNTRL ARKANSAS
THROUGH SCNTRL MO BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM NWRN ARKANSAS
THROUGH CNTRL MO. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
DRYING WITH IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT
STILL BE SLIGHTLY CAPPED TO SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK IN MOST OF
THIS REGION...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH BE MULTICELL IN
CHARACTER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL AND
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES TOWARD
MID-EVENING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35179374 35999345 36919299 37919229 38589169 38429103
            37679075 36409187 35149272 34799365 35179374




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