Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232229
TXZ000-240000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST/SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 232229Z - 240000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NEAR-TERM ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TX. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ALONG A WAVY DRYLINE...WHICH EXTENDS
GENERALLY SSWD FROM NEAR KPVW TO KFST. SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE HAS STALLED NEAR I-27/HWY 87...AND WFO LUB HAS ADDED AN
ADDITIONAL ROW OF COUNTIES TO TORNADO WATCH 199. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TX...WHERE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSING A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THUS FAR
INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...BUT AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ESTIMATING
MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ALONG/E OF THE CAPROCK. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE
INCREASING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
BECOMES MORE LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY MATURE
STORM AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING.

..ROGERS.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33930011 31569989 29610074 29490118 29680132 29710208
            29700265 30760277 32370203 33610205 34460155 34710098
            34610024 33930011




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