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ACUS11 KWNS 262214
SPC MCD 262213

Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Oklahoma and north central

Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

Valid 262213Z - 262345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will continue to increase
across parts of north central Texas into south central Oklahoma
through the 7-9 pm CDT time frame.

DISCUSSION...Discrete storm development is now underway across parts
of south central Oklahoma into north central Texas, where low-level
convergence has become locally enhanced near a pre-cold frontal
confluence zone in the vicinity of the dryline.  Further
intensification is likely during the next few hours within a
strongly sheared environment characterized by at least modest

Even within a narrow corridor of relatively higher moisture content
ahead of the dry line, moisture remains somewhat marginal for
intense convective development.  However, thermal profiles are
relatively cool at mid-levels with generally steep lapse rates that
appear quite favorable for severe hail in strongest storms.

A zone of enhanced mid-level forcing for associated associated with
a short wave impulse pivoting east of the south central high Plains
may augment storm development and perhaps support
consolidation/upscale growth of initially discrete storms into an
evolving line as early as the 00-02Z time frame.  As this occurs
potentially damaging wind gusts may become a more prominent threat.

Until then, large hail appears the primary severe threat.  The
extent of the tornadic potential remains a bit more unclear, but the
leading edge of a corridor of better low-level moisture return that
now appears to be spreading across the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex
may contribute to more favorable boundary layer conditions as it
gradually continues to advect northward into the Red River vicinity
through early evening.

..Kerr.. 03/26/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35509662 35619569 35019512 32999633 32299727 32569842
            34719750 35509662 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.