Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242304
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/FAR EASTERN
AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...205...

VALID 242304Z - 250100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL MO...FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL...AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. TORNADO WATCHES 203 AND 205
CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z AND 03Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...AMID LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SEMI-BROKEN
BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED/LINE-LEADING DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN MS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO RISK
EXISTS PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-LEADING/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AIR MASS.

FARTHER NORTH...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO AND
ADJACENT FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY ADEQUATE
PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
RISK WITHIN A MODERATELY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME.
HOWEVER...A MODESTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT IL/KY/NORTHWEST TN...WITH A TREND OF BACKING
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37059242 38499197 40059142 38958966 37868928 36288910
            35418863 33928892 34289072 35879092 36569119 37059242



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