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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260556
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-261200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF S-CNTRL/SERN VA AND THE LOWER DELMARVA
PENINSULA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 260556Z - 261200Z

SUMMARY...SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR BECOMING COMMON THROUGH
12Z.

DISCUSSION...A SFC LOW ACROSS NRN FL AND SERN GA AS OF 0530Z WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE NC OUTER BANKS BY 12Z AS
AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES
MOVES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...BOTH COOLING AND MOISTENING OF THE
LOW-LEVELS WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT MAINLY HEAVY SNOW.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL INTO SERN VA ARE ALREADY
BELOW FREEZING AS OF 0530Z WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING...AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z AS NLY TO NELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE SFC LOW APPROACHES. WHILE RESIDUAL DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 00Z
WAL SOUNDING WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN VA AND THE
LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO SO WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET.

STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WAA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWFALL
RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR SERN VA SUGGEST THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES AS SOME WARMING MAY OCCUR IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER...AND SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY NEAR FREEZING.
SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
12Z AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NRN
GA/FAR NWRN SC MOVES OVER THE AREA.

..GLEASON.. 02/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36557887 36618014 37647820 38147699 38437577 38477501
            37927520 37107576 36807650 36557734 36557887

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