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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230011
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-230145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Areas affected...Central/southeast IL...Southern IN...Northern
KY...Far Southwest OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 230011Z - 230145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
with a threat of hail and locally damaging wind. At this time, watch
issuance is considered unlikely due to questions regarding the
magnitude of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have developed across portions of
southeast IL into southern IN, along and just north of a surface
boundary draped across the region. For the short term, large MLCAPE
of 2000-3500 J/kg will support robust updrafts with a threat of
marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind, though rather weak
effective shear is expected to limit storm organization. A modest
southwesterly low-level jet of around 20-30 kt (per IWX and PAH
VWPs) may continue to support slightly elevated convection just
north of the surface boundary for much of the evening. While
convection is expected to remain generally disorganized, growing
storm clusters later this evening may support short-lived bowing
segments capable of damaging wind. At this time, the threat is
expected to remain too limited in magnitude for watch issuance.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39968826 39978761 39378629 38998502 38928405 38938343
            38768296 38138317 38008359 38098500 38178593 38368674
            38608734 38778785 38918896 39329015 40029006 39968826