Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290045
TXZ000-290145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle/South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 290045Z - 290145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...While an isolated marginal severe risk continues across
remaining-valid portions of Watch 93, additional Watch issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection has intensified along an eastward-advancing
Pacific cold front; which has merged with a southwestward-moving,
convectively reinforced boundary -- across southwestern parts of the
TX Panhandle and the western TX South Plains. Steep midlevel lapse
rates sampled by NM/west TX 00Z soundings suggest that a few robust
convective cores will be possible during the next few hours.
However, inflow for this activity will remain rooted above the
stable surface layer, while elevated CAPE layers erode owing to the
influx of cooler low-level air from the north/northeast. As a
result, convection may weaken as it advances farther east,
particularly while exhibiting a cluster-type mode (as opposed to
discrete supercells). While a few instances of small to marginally
severe hail may occur -- aided by 45-60 kt of effective shear --
additional Watch issuance is unlikely.

..Cohen.. 03/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33140176 34200249 35260273 35500206 35460046 35160021
            34880036 34760106 34350123 33570120 33190124 33140176




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