Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291751
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AR/NRN LA/NERN TX/SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291751Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
FROM NERN TX TO NWRN LA ALONG A ZONE OF MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BEING SUSTAINED NWD FROM FAR SERN
OK TO SRN AR. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MODEST ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NWD...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE SHV VWP IS SAMPLING AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP
SHEAR THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...INCLUDING
SUPERCELL CLUSTERS. SVR WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO RISK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
INTERACTING CELLS MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. WITH
CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF STORM INFLOW...STORM INTENSITY
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE SOON.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32049397 32049610 32639647 33639599 34329466 34159291
            33459213 32499240 32049397




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