Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 312047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312046
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-312245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312046Z - 312245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS TO THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE SOME HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
COULD OCCUR...OVERALL THREAT AND DURATION APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SLOWLY
ADVANCING DRYLINE...AND NEAR LEE/THERMAL LOW ACROSS SWRN KS...HAVE
LED TO  HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN KS TO THE TX
PANHANDLE...AND MORE RECENT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN KS.
WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DRYLINE AND SURFACE LOW...IN THE PRESENCE OF NEUTRAL TO WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID MORE ISOLATED STORM
INITIATION NEAR THESE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS
INITIATING AND MOVING EAST AMIDST WEAK DEEP-LAYER WLY STEERING FLOW
MAY HAVE ACCESS TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND SOME CHANCE AT PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. MOST HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WHERE DCAPE VALUES
WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS. STORM PERSISTENCE MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WATCH BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

..CARBIN/HART.. 08/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33850127 33430195 33510203 33830197 34700145 35130133
            35690120 36730099 37310112 37720125 37990149 38220116
            38160051 37830015 37490006 36550007 36020012 35080037
            34620062 34270090 33850127



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.