Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012013
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN ND...ERN SD...SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012013Z - 012115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA.

DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALED WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR
S-CNTRL ND...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS SE...AND
A TROUGH EXTENDING TO ITS SW. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES...IN CONCERT WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A
SEWD-PROGRESSING IMPULSE ALOFT...SHOULD OFFER ENOUGH FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING CU FIELD NEAR DICKEY/LAMOURE COUNTIES IN
ND...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING.

AMPLE INSOLATION /E.G. SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90/ AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR/SW OF THE WARM
FRONT. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-35
KTS SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLULAR/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A STRONG-WIND THREAT IN MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TO THE SW OF THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT...CLOUD COVER/OVERTURNING FROM MORNING CONVECTION HAS
LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AND THE RESULTANT SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.
NONETHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

..PICCA/HART.. 08/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45090010 46510041 46960015 47129844 46489679 44829445
            44059490 43659564 43509685 45090010



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