Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 181933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181932
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV/SRN AND ERN ID/SWRN MT/WRN AND NWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181932Z - 182130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONGER...SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.  AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWED A CORRIDOR
OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM NERN NV THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
ID TO SWRN MT...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS CONFLUENCE/FRONT.
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDANT TO A MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN NV/SRN ID /PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS LIKELY COMPENSATING FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
500-1000 J PER KG/ ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING
PRODUCT VERIFIES THIS TREND PER SEVERAL STORMS FROM NERN NV TO ERN
ID HAVING STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.  WHILE THE WEAKER INSTABILITY
MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS...INCREASING BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SUGGESTS STORM
ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 09/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...
REV...

LAT...LON   40601752 41721647 43141468 44051385 44821313 45361238
            45621044 44581025 42881153 41531314 40501447 40501551
            40601752



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