Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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710
ACUS11 KWNS 261813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261813
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-261945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261813Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
UNORGANIZED ENOUGH SUCH THAT WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SFC HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
/E.G. DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S/ HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AROUND
2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID
MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
GROWING CU/TCU...IN ADDITION TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED...TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE REGIONAL VWP AND MESOANALYSIS DATA DEPICT RELATIVELY WEAK 0-3
KM FLOW...SOME MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OCCURS AT MID
AND ESPECIALLY UPPER LEVELS...SUCH THAT DEEP SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
30 KTS OR SO MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
MOREOVER...ANY COLD POOL MERGERS WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE THREAT
FOR SOME STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. DESPITE THESE FACTORS THOUGH...THE
LACK OF STRONGER FLOW SHOULD TEMPER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

..PICCA/GUYER.. 08/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37088938 37498958 38388908 39178899 39568888 39928846
            40118757 39948644 39528604 38618612 38238617 37768676
            37128830 37088938




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