Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 052203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052202
MNZ000-WIZ000-060000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052202Z - 060000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS NERN MN...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NRN ST. LOUIS COUNTY MN. A SFC COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE W OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN ND/WRN
MN...MOVING ESEWD WITH TIME. WHILE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST AS OF 22Z...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT OVER N-CNTRL MN...MOVING EWD WITH TIME. MOST
SHORT-TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
SCENARIO WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z...WITH INITIAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
GROWING UPSCALE INTO A QLCS GIVEN THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FORCING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MN. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SHOULD ALSO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT TO ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN 0-1KM SRH AROUND 140 M2/S2 PER THE KDLH RADAR AT 22Z.
IF CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

LAT...LON   46719460 47469433 48059395 48609343 48679288 48439206
            48249170 48169138 48329085 48179063 48169011 48008943
            47779000 47289112 46779195 46609222 46309365 46719460




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