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ACUS11 KWNS 190041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190040
KSZ000-OKZ000-190145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...

VALID 190040Z - 190145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY
ACROSS CNTRL KS.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS S-CNTRL KS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS 3 MAIN STORMS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS
IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION OVER CNTRL KS AS OF 0040Z.  THESE
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INGEST RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AS THE
STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NE AT 30 KT.  A LONG ESTABLISHED
SUPERCELL OVER ELLIS COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO RUSSELL/LINCOLN/MITCHELL
COUNTIES.  SURFACE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
STORM ARE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE LED
TO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z/19 TOP RAOB
/4300 J/KG MLCAPE/.  STRONG MASS FLUX IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS SUPERCELL IN N-CNTRL KS AND SERN NE.  AS THE LLJ
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...CYCLING LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES WITH THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE SOME
TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.

FARTHER S...LESS REFINED STORM STRUCTURE OVER
EDWARDS/KIOWA/COMANCHE/CLARK COUNTIES IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME
UPSCALE GROWTH TENDENCY.  AS SUCH...THESE MESSY MODE STRUCTURES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY EVOLVING INTO QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
FROM HERE FORWARD.  NONETHELESS...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE AT HVL PROFILER /40 KT AT 0.5 KM AGL/ WILL AID IN STORM
ORGANIZATION.  AN EVENTUAL BOWING COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
WILL FAVOR DMGG WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

..SMITH.. 05/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37029968 39179906 39409752 38899712 37439728 36919841
            37029968

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