Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260439
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-260615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK THROUGH NRN ARK AND NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8...

VALID 260439Z - 260615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS MOVING THROUGH SERN OK AND NRN AR WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL THROUGH 06Z. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL TX MAY POSE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...BUT A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNLESS TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING PRIMARILY NORTH OF A COLD
FRONT FROM NCNTRL TX THROUGH SERN OK INTO NRN AR. AN AXIS OF
MARGINAL TO MODERATE MUCAPE PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER NCNTRL TX. SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS STRENGTHENED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SUGGESTING
STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING MID-LEVEL
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

BACKBUILDING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER
NCNTRL TX WHERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A THERMAL INVERSION BETWEEN 850-700 MB
IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH.

..DIAL.. 03/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33419803 34939554 36009259 36019135 34769138 33989455
            32999759 33419803



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