Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 231908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231908
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-232145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...FAR SWRN WI...FAR NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231908Z - 232145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY OCCUR...AND THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM FAR SRN WI INTO NERN
IA. THE AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
OWING TO AT LEAST MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SFC DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS COMBINED
WITH POCKETS OF AT LEAST FILTERED INSOLATION ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE
REACHING 3000-5000 J/KG NEAR AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SOMEWHAT
WEAKER BUOYANCY FARTHER N. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN NERN IA -- ON THE BACK EDGE OF A PERSISTENT
WARM-ADVECTION-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ASCENT RELATED TO MCV/S CROSSING PARTS OF
CNTRL/NRN IA ARE ALSO ASSISTING IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONGER TSTMS TO EVOLVE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 30-50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE -- AIDED BY WATER-LOADING PROCESSES.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AREAS OF CLOUDS -- LOCALLY STUNTING DESTABILIZATION
-- AND GIVEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR/ASCENT TO BE
SOMEWHAT RELEGATED TO THE COOL/CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41799236 42619226 43339172 43349080 42789021 41719043
            41359175 41799236




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.