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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241858
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-242100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AR...NRN LA...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241858Z - 242100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AS UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S DEWPOINTS ARE SPREADING NWD IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONT ANALYZED
APPROXIMATELY FROM NRN AR TO N-CNTRL MS. WITH A DEARTH OF ANTECEDENT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION IN MOST AREAS HAS
SUPPORTED MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG...AIDED BY 7-8 C/KM
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS. EVEN WHERE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BENEATH A CAPPED/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL PV MAX PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY HAS
RESULTED IN DEEPENING CONVECTION. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 40-60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/AR BORDER
OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER DCVA WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY
EXISTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE SHV VWP WILL
SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL AND TORNADOES. ALSO...STRONG
CONVECTION RELATED TO WRM ADVECTION IN CNTRL AR MAY FURTHER
INTENSIFY TOWARD THE MS RIVER AS INFLOW MOISTENS AMIDST RELATIVELY
BACKED SFC WINDS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. DMGG WINDS...SVR
HAIL...AND SOME TORNADO RISK MAY ENSUE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33549382 34119195 35079101 35009020 33899011 33249046
            32699114 32349289 32769398 33549382