Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231733
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 560...

VALID 231733Z - 231900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 560 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW.

DISCUSSION...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SERN LA INTO EXTREME SWRN
MS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S.
RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING SLIGHTLY AND THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MORE INSTABILITY WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  WHILE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION HAS
ORIENTED ITSELF ALONG WARM FRONTAL CORRIDOR THAT HAS ADVANCED
INLAND...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION MAY
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ALONG/AHEAD COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DISCRETE STRUCTURES BUT AN UPWARD EVOLVING LINEAR MCS COULD
ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT.  TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
GREATEST WITH SUPERCELLS ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT.

..DARROW.. 12/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31569373 32998782 30098784 28679371 31569373



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