Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 302222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302221
KSZ000-302315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302221Z - 302315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE AND ANY ASSOCIATED
HAIL/WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING HAS REMOVED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE ZONE OF
DIFFUSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE
INTERSECTION WITH A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR HYS.  DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO I-70.  THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE
SPREADING NEWD...BUT ONLY MID-UPPER 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT MLCAPE
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  THUS...THE HAIL/WIND RISK WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLE WHERE
WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE RICHER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
WATCH AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON.. 09/30/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39179900 39519768 39739680 39639654 39369652 38689724
            38089790 37619842 37249894 37089947 37309973 38149943
            38849936 39179900



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.