Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 032230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032229
SCZ000-GAZ000-032330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / SC LOW COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032229Z - 032330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM SERN GA INTO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN
GA AND NEARING THE GREATER SAV AREA AHEAD OF A SEWD-SAGGING QLCS.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.  LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE
DURING THIS PERIOD OWING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 80/70 ON THE
IMMEDIATE INFLOW TO THE S OF THE ONGOING SUPERCELL CLUSTER BEFORE
DIURNAL HEAT LOSS THIS EVENING.  AS STORMS TRACK NEWD TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...COOLER TEMPS /LOW TO MID 70S/ MAY IN TURN PROVE
LESS FAVORABLE BUOYANCY-WISE BUT ADEQUATELY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS /0-3 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2 PER S2 VIA THE KCLX VAD/ MAY
ALLOW SOME TORNADO RISK TO MOVE INTO THE SC LOW COUNTRY VICINITY.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31718259 32568128 32448095 32098085 31868103 31488238
            31718259




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