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ACUS11 KWNS 151519
SPC MCD 151519

Mesoscale Discussion 0183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Areas affected...Eastern SC/far southern NC/extreme eastern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151519Z - 151745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of the eastern Carolinas and far eastern GA are
being monitored for some potential of increased damaging-wind risk
through the afternoon -- especially after 17Z. Present indications
are that Watch issuance is unlikely, though convective and
environmental trends will continue to be monitored through the

DISCUSSION...An established squall line across the Piedmont region
of SC extending into extreme east-central GA will continue advancing
eastward toward the Atlantic coast through the afternoon, with some
development northward into far southern NC anticipated. Ahead of
this activity, surface pressure falls on the order of 1.5-2.0 mb per
2 hours are analyzed within a warm sector in which low-level winds
are relatively veered. A related influx of partially modified Gulf
moisture will continue to foster modest boundary-layer
destabilization amidst fairly widespread cloud coverage. While this
cloud coverage will tend to mute prospects for more robust
destabilization, especially given the presence of surface dewpoints
only in the middle/upper 50s, strong tropospheric wind fields exist
across the region.

With 45-50 kt of flow around 1 km above ground per area VAD wind
profiles, convective momentum transport may support localized
damaging wind gusts -- especially in association with line-embedded
rear-inflow enhancements and meso-vortices. The most-likely timing
of increased severe potential should be after 17Z. While a
brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out, the overall dearth of
moisture return and paucity of buoyancy should tend to limit such
potential. Furthermore, with convective-line-preceding flow in the
lowest km above ground largely oriented parallel to the line,
convective inflow and gust-front convergence will be limited, thus
restricting overall convective intensity. If it were to become
apparent that more robust destabilization were to evolve, Watch
issuance probabilities could subsequently increase.

..Cohen/Hart.. 02/15/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32738204 33138138 34157937 34447837 34127812 33507899
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