Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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494 ACUS11 KWNS 100639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100639 IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-100845- Mesoscale Discussion 1625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern NE...western IA...southwest MN...extreme northeast KS/northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100639Z - 100845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and isolated hail remain possible overnight. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into northwest IA and southwest MN. Recent measured gusts have generally been subsevere in the 40-45 kt range, and increasing MLCINH with time and decreasing deep-layer shear with eastward extent may tend to limit severe-wind potential somewhat. However, substantial buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and a well-established cold pool could still support intensification of this QLCS on a localized basis, with isolated damaging gusts possible. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates could also result in some hail potential with the stronger embedded cores, and also with more discrete development ahead of the primary convective line. ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 43949643 44109534 43989433 43149378 41589347 40669452 39779589 39799701 40239868 40399846 40579800 41299665 42199618 43229634 43949643 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN