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000
ACUS11 KWNS 280433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280432
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-280600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TENNESSEE...WRN AND CNTRL N
CAROLINA...WRN S CAROLINA...NRN GEORGIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...450...

VALID 280432Z - 280600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448...450...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
BE NEEDED TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...AN EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF STORMS...FOCUSED WITHIN A
NARROW PRE-FRONTAL PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...HAS BEEN
MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING A BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AND...AS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION TAKES A MORE EASTWARD TURN TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...FORCING FOR CONTINUING SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH.  THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY
RECENT RADAR DATA WHICH SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING TRENDS TO CONVECTION
MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED 40-50 KT
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STORMS
ENCOUNTERING THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
COULD STILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME.  HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
OUTPUT...SUGGESTS PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE LOW.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35608213 36008048 35647947 34098258 34238436 35248520
            35578400 35608213

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