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000
ACUS11 KWNS 160006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160005
NEZ000-COZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Areas affected...Parts of western and central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...

Valid 160005Z - 160200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452
continues.

SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms is possible across
the region by 8-10 PM CDT, accompanied by increasing potential for
damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Increasing thunderstorm development is underway along a
rough west-east zone of enhanced low-level warm advection extending
across central Nebraska, with an additional further increase in
thunderstorm development probable along a cold front now across the
Nebraska Panhandle.  Enhanced by convective outflow, models suggest
that the cold front may begin surging eastward during the next few
hours, as the zone of warm advection remains quasi-stationary or
slowly lifts northward.

Considerable consolidation and upscale convective growth along these
boundaries, particularly near their intersection, in the presence of
large boundary layer CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg), may become increasingly
centered northwest of Broken Bow by 01-03Z.  This may become
sufficient to support the evolution of a mesoscale convective vortex
and associated rear inflow jet that could be accompanied by an
increase in potential for damaging surface gusts.  Otherwise, deep
layer flow and shear are rather weak, though nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet (30-40 kt) may augment development later
this evening.

..Kerr.. 08/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41610266 41960218 42700141 42580012 41419903 40750042
            40660324 41610266