Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260434
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-260600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NEB...WRN IA...EXTREME SRN MN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...

VALID 260434Z - 260600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WW...AND
MAY SHIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN NEB AND WRN IA DURING NEXT 2-3
HOURS.  CONVECTIVE/INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF THREAT EXTENDING E OF CURRENT WW.

DISCUSSION...BKN/WAVY SQUALL LINE IS EVIDENT AS OF 430Z FROM SWRN
CORNER OF MN TO CLAY COUNTY NEB.  THOUGH GUST FRONT HAS REMAINED AS
MUCH AS 10-15 NM AHEAD OF E-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL NEB
SEGMENT...SUFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAS OCCURRED TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR GUSTS.  FOR EXAMPLE...52-KT GUST WAS MEASURED
AT HSI AT 0339Z.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX...ENABLING
FORCED ASCENT OF FAVORABLY BUOYANT NEAR-SFC AIR ATOP GUST FRONT AND
INTO UPDRAFTS.  GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM-SECTOR SBCINH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...HOWEVER MUCAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000 J/KG OVER SRN MN TO 2500 J/KG OVER SERN
NEB...AMIDST ROUGHLY 40-KT SWLY EFFECTIVE-SHEAR VECTORS...BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.  ISOLATED SVR HAIL ALSO MAY
OCCUR WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN
NEB...AND ISOLATED SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER EXTREME SRN MN.

..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40619796 41819787 42079717 42569683 42639648 43039628
            43449619 43759400 42259419 40939560 40239704 40619796




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