Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231720
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231720Z - 231815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.  TORNADO WATCH IS
BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...CIRCULATIONS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAVE
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER WRN FL PENINSULA.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK BUOYANCY...SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 5.5 C/KM...THOUGH 1000 J/KG MLCAPE DOES EXTEND NWD
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF EVOLVING TSTMS.  WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
MAXIMIZED WELL INLAND...FOCUS/VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE NARROW WARM SECTOR.  CURRENT THINKING IS
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOWER 70S.
WHILE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE NOTED WITH MOST DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   31508602 31418368 30018341 29608482 30228646 31508602



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