Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 191842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191842
MNZ000-NDZ000-192115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Areas affected...Portions of ND and western MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191842Z - 192115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...There will exist some isolated severe hail/wind potential
with convection spreading across the area from this afternoon into
the early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection has exhibited slight intensification within
a band of midlevel ascent from southeast Saskatchewan to southwest
Manitoba, preceding a compact vorticity maximum embedded within
40-50 kt of 500-mb northwesterly flow. Continued diurnal heating of
a relatively dry boundary layer ahead of this disturbance will
continue to contribute to marginal instability, with MLCAPE around
250-500 J/kg though with lacking MLCINH. As such, convection will
spread into and across the discussion area throughout the afternoon
and into the evening, and may increase in intensity during the next
few hours. Moderately strong mid/high-level flow will support ample
convective ventilation and sufficient deep shear for sustained
convective cells. Moderately steep midlevel lapse rates may support
isolated marginally severe hail. Also, as low-level lapse rates
steepen, the potential for well-mixed/dry low-level profiles to
support evaporatively cooled downdrafts will exist. Isolated
marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. While the compact
nature of the upstream disturbance and related preceding
upward-motion response will likely support some severe potential,
the overall dearth of moisture and paucity of buoyancy should render
overall limited/marginal severe potential.

..Cohen/Hart.. 06/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46179805 47370080 48850264 49020004 48889768 48399628
            47339540 46259522 46179805




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