Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 212305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212305
FLZ000-GAZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...

Valid 212305Z - 220000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

SUMMARY...Limited severe/tornado risk lingers across remaining
portions of Tornado Watch 14 across parts of the Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...As the more vigorous portion of the broken band of
convection stretching from the South Carolina/Georgia coastal waters
westward across the Florida Panhandle continues to shift farther off
the Georgia coast, less-organized storms persist westward to the
Calhoun/Bay/Gulf county area of Florida.  Storms are ongoing near
and just to the cool side of convective outflow, where sufficient
CAPE and ample shear persist.  While short-term convective trends
have remained generally unchanged -- i.e. storms sub-severe,
increasing large-scale ascent is noted farther west into southeast
portions of Louisiana/Mississippi per WV and radar loops.

At this time, it appears that a relative minimum in severe risk may
persist through the scheduled 22/00Z expiration of Tornado Watch 14.
However, an anticipated increase in risk later this evening may
require additional WW issuance near or to the northwest of the
current watch.

..Goss.. 01/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30668350 29818438 29528517 30138598 30148666 30498651
            30688574 30468417 30668350



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