Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281723
TXZ000-281830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 281723Z - 281830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue to develop across west Texas
over the next hour. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the
primary threats. WW issuance will likely be needed by 18Z.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows 1001 mb low over far
southeastern New Mexico with a corridor of low-level moisture
extending northward across west-central Texas to near the vicinity
of Lubbock. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the upper
50s and lower 60s F and the RAP is analyzing moderate instability
with MLCAPE values from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, water vapor
imagery shows a band of strong large-scale ascent associated with an
upper-level low in the Desert Southwest. This band of ascent will
move across west Texas over the next few hours providing support for
strong to severe thunderstorm development. The instability combined
with strong deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear near 55 kt on the
Lubbock WSR-88D-VWP will be favorable for storm rotation with
isolated large hail and possibly supercell development. The latest
HRRR develops a band of surface-based storms near Lubbock and moves
this convection northward eventually reaching the southern Texas
Panhandle later this afternoon. This is the corridor where WW
issuance is likely.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32030204 32380067 32790011 33549995 33929999 34340030
            34630070 34760113 34830162 34780219 34510258 34100285
            33470300 32640277 32030204



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