Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261730
TXZ000-261930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH
TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261730Z - 261930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED...SHORT-DURATION SVR-TSTM RISK WILL EXIST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A
WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER STARR COUNTY TX
WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND A SFC WIND-SHIFT
AXIS. AHEAD OF THE ESEWD-MOVING STORM...DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING
SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AMIDST
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F IS SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER A
MODIFIED 12Z BRO RAOB. THIS RAOB SAMPLES STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WITH THE BRO VWP SAMPLING AROUND
30-35 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR...SUSTAINED...MARGINAL-SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS MAY BE EXHIBITED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE BROWNSVILLE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OR SO. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SHORT-TERM. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE SMALL
SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SVR-TSTM RISK IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 03/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   26209841 26499854 26739828 26639772 26319729 25959723
            26209841



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