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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231923
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY AND ADJACENT NRN CO/SWRN SD/WRN PORTIONS OF
THE NEB PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231923Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK --
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS AREA IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.  A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS THE SERN WY VICINITY NEAR AND W OF CYS...AND INTO
ADJACENT NRN CO.  STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN --
JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A N CENTRAL CO SURFACE LOW IS
BEING MAXIMIZED.  EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE...AS GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION /MIXED-LAYER CAPE CURRENTLY
AVERAGING AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA/ CONTINUES.

WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...SHEAR -- PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL ELYS ARE OBSERVED N
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW -- HAS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS...AS WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT TO SLY AT NEAR 50 KT AT
MID LEVELS.  AS SUCH...STORMS WHICH CAN BECOME SUSTAINED WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE/ROTATE...AND POSE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE.  LATER...STORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL-SCALE BANDS...MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD AND
REACHING PARS OF SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..GOSS/HART.. 09/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   40990552 41600512 42320579 43120643 43740662 44870607
            44770459 44310332 43030265 42060275 40670339 40340488
            40990552