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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270432
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-270900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND
MASSACHUSETTS

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 270432Z - 270900Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD
OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC
HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL
PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY
APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO
THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

..MARSH.. 01/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41337383 42037347 42597232 42937087 42477023 41786981
            41146995 40767095 40587176 40487261 40477338 40777390
            41337383