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000
ACUS11 KWNS 182357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182357
MTZ000-190130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182357Z - 190130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ARCING N-S IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG/COMPACT
VORT MAX CROSSING MONTANA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EWD WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. WITH
40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY GGW/BLX VWP...CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS
ERN MT. AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY WITHIN AROUND 40-50 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF ITS ONGOING
POSITION. EVEN FARTHER E...PROGRESSIVELY LESS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OWING TO EARLIER CLOUD-STUNTED SFC HEATING SHOULD DEPLETE SUCH
POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48180746 48610749 48700691 48290638 47590619 46550627
            45780688 45550751 45520840 45870832 46270753 46830709
            47240702 47810719 48180746

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