Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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619 ACUS11 KWNS 120359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120359 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-120600- Mesoscale Discussion 1652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Kansas...northeastern Oklahoma...southwest through east central Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120359Z - 120600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorm development has begun to weaken. As this continues, peak wind gusts along the associated gust front are likely to follow suit. DISCUSSION...Notable surface pressure rises (up to 2-4+ mb 2-hourly in 03Z surface observations), associated with strengthening convective cold pools, have supported a period of locally strong to severe northwesterly surface gusts and southeastward propagation of stronger convection, in the presence of otherwise modest southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. However, increasing inhibition for seasonably moist, potentially unstable parcels within the southeasterly low-level updraft inflow has begun to contribute to substantive weakening of convection. As this continues over the next few hours, the risk for localized damaging wind gusts is expected to continue to wane. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37799426 38639284 39479216 40129050 40948943 40678859 39628896 38639118 37469261 36689481 37429627 37799426 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH