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000
ACUS11 KWNS 190141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190141
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0841 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...Extreme southeast OK into much of AR...western
TN...and the MO Bootheel

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...

Valid 190141Z - 190315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126
continues.

SUMMARY...Some increase in severe potential remains possible later
this evening. New watch issuance is possible if storms begin to
increase.

DISCUSSION...Convection has thus far struggled to intensify from
southeast OK into western AR, likely due to remnant weak capping (as
noted on the 00Z LZK sounding) and a lack of stronger large-scale
ascent. However, WV imagery suggests a weak shortwave trough may be
approaching the region, and a stronger cold frontal surge is
expected into a larger part of AR later this evening. These factors
may result in increasing storm coverage with time tonight near the
front as it moves southeastward.

Rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints near 70F) beneath modestly
steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support MLCAPE in excess
of 2000 J/kg prior to frontal passage, with deep-layer shear
remaining sufficient for organized convection. A few stronger
cells/clusters may evolve with time, with an attendant threat of
large hail, locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. With the
threat eventually expected to spread eastward and extend beyond the
expiration time of WW 126, new watch issuance is possible.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34299504 35909367 36579259 36609247 36189001 36008941
            35128970 34519031 34339067 34159130 34059186 33969344
            34079459 34299504