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000
ACUS11 KWNS 220309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220309
OKZ000-TXZ000-220445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...North-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505...

Valid 220309Z - 220445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
continues.

SUMMARY...Line of strong to severe storms with primary hazards of
wind and hail should accelerate east across parts of north TX.

DISCUSSION...Trailing portion of an extensive QLCS extends to the TX
Big Country. Parts of this line have begun to surge/accelerate east
over the Low Rolling Plains and the primary hazard should be strong
to severe wind gusts as the line persists just south of the Red
River. The far southwest portion of the line should pose a risk for
isolated severe hail owing to a more semi-discrete mode. While the
00Z FWD sounding sampled mean mixing ratios of only around 11 g/kg,
a plume of richer boundary-layer moisture characterized by near 70 F
surface dew points is being advected north towards the Metroplex and
north-central TX. This might foster a maintenance of QLCS intensity
during the early morning, compensating for gradual nocturnal
cooling.

..Grams.. 10/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33779763 33779666 33719600 32979605 32539693 32199880
            32279956 32819945 33809802 33779763