Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 271618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271617
WIZ000-MNZ000-271815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MN...W-CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271617Z - 271815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SVR COVERAGE TO BE TOO LOW TO
MERIT A WATCH BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED. THIS
AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MARGINAL RISK IN THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW JUST SEWD OF AIT
WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR HCD AND THEN FURTHER
SWWD INTO NWRN IA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY /DEPICTED WELL BY
THE 68 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM/ EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW NEAR HCD. TSTM
IN MEEKER AND MCLEOD COUNTIES IS VERY NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT AND HAS
RECENTLY SHOWN INTENSIFICATION.

DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MOIST -- DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
-- BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR --6.5 DEG C PER KM BETWEEN 700
AND 500 MB ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING -- AND THE OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
MODEST. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN
WITH THIS WEAK INSTABILITY...THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR -- RECENT MPX VAD SAMPLED 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR -- AND POTENTIAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS AS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
TORNADO OR TWO DOES EXIST GIVEN THE INCREASED SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45029477 45479413 45579258 45219138 44699084 44109156
            44419456 45029477



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.