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ACUS11 KWNS 242145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242145
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN SD...CNTRL/WRN NEB...NWRN KS...NERN
CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242145Z - 250015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A LEE TROUGH ARCING S OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS INTO WRN NEB AND NW KS. WEAK
CONVERGENCE INVOF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH DEEP PBL CIRCULATIONS TO
ITS W ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS PER MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
W OF THE TROUGH -- LOCALLY REACHING 40-60F IN CONVECTIVELY
UNDISTURBED AIR -- WILL YIELD A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS
WITH INTENSE MICROBURSTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. WITH TIME...MERGING COLD
POOLS COULD YIELD LOCALIZED POCKETS OF UPSCALE GROWTH/MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS CONVECTION SPREADS ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS.

THE AIR MASS IS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER...BUT MOISTER...E OF THE LEE
TROUGH...FEATURING GREATER MLCAPE WITH EWD EXTENT. AS SUCH...A RISK
FOR LOCALLY SVR STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...WITH ISOLATED SVR
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE ERN EXPANSE OF SUCH RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY
PROGRESSIVELY GREATER MLCINH IN THE COOLER AIR ACROSS ERN PARTS OF
SD/NEB/KS...EVENTUALLY ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING. ALSO...WHILE
DEFINITIVE ESEWD-DIRECTED ANVIL SPREAD PER VIS IMAGERY IS LIKELY A
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED HIGH-LEVEL FLOW -- BOOSTING CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION -- VWPS SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND 0-6-KM BULK
SHEAR ARE ONLY MODEST...WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43449969 44500052 44470271 43110293 40400383 39530253
            39960007 41299943 43449969

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