Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242312
ILZ000-MOZ000-250045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MO THROUGH WRN  AND SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89...

VALID 242312Z - 250045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
FROM EXTREME ERN MO INTO WCNTRL AND SWRN IL THROUGH 00Z. WW 89 CAN
BE LOCALLY EXTENDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FARTHER EAST INTO SCNTRL IL
IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF FUTURE SEVERE THREAT...ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING A LINE OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING EXTENDS FROM EXTREME WRN IL THROUGH ERN
MO NEAR ST LOUIS AND IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS LINE
APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY AN MCV ON NRN END...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCEMENT. ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY RESIDES IN THE
DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY AROUND 40 IN CNTRL
IL ALONG WITH MLCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED DRY...INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER 00Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN HALF OF THE LINE AS CONVECTION
MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE REGIME ACROSS IL. THREAT MAY
PERSIST A BIT LONGER ALONG SRN HALF OF THE LINE INTO SCNTRL IL WHERE
NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY
GREATER INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38019051 39249023 39879040 40289008 40158956 39188935
            37988998 38019051




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