Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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969
ACUS11 KWNS 212016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212015
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-212145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...THE WESTERN
SHORE OF MD...AND SRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212015Z - 212145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL/ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE
IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN DELMARVA
PENINSULA...CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THE WRN SHORE OF MD WILL CONTINUE
EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND SRN NJ. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE...WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HINDERING
GREATER INSTABILITY. 20Z RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND
500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND RECENT VWP ESTIMATES FROM
KDOX SHOW SOME INCREASE IN SWLY/WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS TO AROUND 25-30
KT. THIS MARGINAL COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME TRANSIENT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW
ISSUANCE.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 08/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   39447597 39727549 39757514 39717467 39527417 39137455
            38667490 38017517 37947570 38027637 38297679 38587704
            39047657 39447597




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