Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 242107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242107
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND...NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242107Z - 242200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY
ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS ACROSS SERN MT...AIDED BY STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING AND A POSSIBLE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS FROM 20Z PLACED A WEAK SFC LOW
NW OF MLS...WITH A TROUGH PROTRUDING SEWD INTO NERN WY...AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL MT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WAS
POSITIONED E OF THE SFC TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S F /HIGHER THAN BEING DEPICTED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE/...AND
IS CO-LOCATED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG PER MODIFIED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED...AND
WEAK CAPPING MAY STILL BE PRESENT DESPITE TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-90S F...WHICH WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS IF ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP...AND A SUBSEQUENT
THREAT FOR BOTH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...THE NEED FOR A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM.

..ROGERS/WEISS.. 07/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   46440556 46530397 46500313 46300280 45750257 45240325
            45110474 45030634 45050749 45680815 46230820 46550768
            46440556



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.