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ACUS11 KWNS 232310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232310
TXZ000-240045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX AND FAR WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 213...

VALID 232310Z - 240045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 213 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 213 CONTINUES...WITH A LESSENING TORNADO
POTENTIAL ASIDE FROM LARGE HAIL AND WHAT SHOULD BE AN INCREASING
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX.
PORTIONS OF WATCHES 213 AND/OR 214 MAY WARRANT A SPATIAL WATCH
EXTENSION.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL MERGERS APPEAR TO ALREADY BE LEADING TO
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TX LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...ROUGHLY 50 MILES TO THE NORTH OF I-20 AND
SWEETWATER/ABILENE AREAS AS OF 2245Z. ALTHOUGH SOME TORNADO THREAT
MAY CONTINUE...MAINLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE/INITIAL-MERGER
DEVELOPMENT...A MORE MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
AND CONTINUED CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
UPSCALE/MCS DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION/GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD/ACROSS
I-20...INCLUDING THE SNYDER/SWEETWATER/ABILENE AREAS. SOME INCREASE
IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 1-2 KM AT WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DYESS
AFB/SAN ANGELO OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF
INCREASING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW/SUSTAINED PROPAGATION.

FARTHER NORTHWEST...A MERGER BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AMARILLO AREA AS OF 2245Z. A
SPECIAL 21Z OBSERVED SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE
RATE PROFILE WITH AN ADJUSTED 2500+ J/KG OF MLCAPE WITHIN A VEERING
WIND PROFILE /45-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/. LARGE HAIL WILL THE
PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL
SHOULD RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS DEVELOP/PERSIST ALBEIT WITHIN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER/OUTFLOW INFLUENCED ENVIRONMENT.

..GUYER.. 05/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   35550245 35800077 33899978 33289881 31799921 32790198
            35550245

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