Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291733
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-291900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA...ERN OK AND AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291733Z - 291900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX
THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESO-LOW OVER NE TX
WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST TX AND LA
EXTENDING NWD INTO AR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S F. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
SFC LOW ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SFC TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION
WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH
MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. IN
ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS AT SHREVEPORT AND IN WRN AR SHOW 35 TO 40 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT
APPROACHES THE OK-AR STATE-LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS
SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE
INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   31739281 31279369 31309450 32269485 32909490 34349501
            35119491 35659409 35569278 34719226 31739281



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