Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250258
LAZ000-TXZ000-250400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Areas affected...southwest and central parts of LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 250258Z - 250400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...In addition to an increasing risk for storms capable of
damaging winds moving into the area from the west during the
overnight hours, the potential exists for a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Latest subjective surface analysis indicates an
increase of surface dewpoints (into the mid-upper 60s degrees F)
over central and southwest LA that is probably the result of a
relaxing in boundary-layer mixing and the northward advection of
richer moisture.  The KPOE and KLCH VADs show 50-kt and 40-kt from
the south-southwest at 3km AGL.  According to short-term model data,
the strongest low-level shear will be located farther north over
central LA compared to the immediate coast.  Forecast soundings show
large looping hodographs with 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH.  As such,
the greatest conditional risk for a tornado may be in the
overlapping area of where the stronger low-level shear and the
northern extent of the richer low-level moisture.  At this point, it
appears this may be over central LA during the overnight hours.

..Smith/Thompson.. 03/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31639368 31469236 31169214 30569222 30249281 30219366
            31639368



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