Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 162056
SPC MCD 162055

Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS...western MO...northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 162055Z - 162330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts could accompany small
convective clusters into the early evening hours -- east of recently
issued Mesoscale Discussion 1649. Watch issuance is unlikely for
this eastern regime.

DISCUSSION...Persistent elevated convection within a band of
isentropic ascent from north-central OK to the lower Missouri Valley
is becoming near-surface based in response to continued diurnal
surface heating. This activity may produce isolated severe wind
gusts within a fairly narrow spatial window -- the eastern extent of
which is marked by drier/more stable air emanating from an
anticyclone farther east. Nevertheless, 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
with upwards of around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE may support a few bouts of
intense convection with isolated severe wind gusts. Relatively weak
deep shear/ascent will mitigate the overall severe risk, as this
activity tracks eastward/northeastward into early evening.

..Cohen/Guyer.. 09/16/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36609626 37869544 39199441 38809383 37119440 36469558
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