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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231955
FLZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN COAST OF FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231955Z - 232200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT
SHOULD NOT WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
PENSACOLA WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN GA.
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS
MUCH OF FL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK
INSTABILITY MAINLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A 45 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHEAST OF
TALLAHASSEE EXTENDING SWWD ABOUT 130 STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE...ALONG
WHICH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THE TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP APPEARS
TO BE SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES MEASURED TO BE NEAR 230 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING SFC TEMPS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY INTO THE UPPER 70S F WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF SPINUP...MAINLY AS CELLS MOVE ONSHORE. THE POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE BUT THE
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 01/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29388275 29048245 28558239 28408257 28438279 28758288
            28928301 29338347 29648350 29818329 29698304 29388275