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000
ACUS11 KWNS 162056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162055
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-162330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS...western MO...northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 162055Z - 162330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts could accompany small
convective clusters into the early evening hours -- east of recently
issued Mesoscale Discussion 1649. Watch issuance is unlikely for
this eastern regime.

DISCUSSION...Persistent elevated convection within a band of
isentropic ascent from north-central OK to the lower Missouri Valley
is becoming near-surface based in response to continued diurnal
surface heating. This activity may produce isolated severe wind
gusts within a fairly narrow spatial window -- the eastern extent of
which is marked by drier/more stable air emanating from an
anticyclone farther east. Nevertheless, 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
with upwards of around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE may support a few bouts of
intense convection with isolated severe wind gusts. Relatively weak
deep shear/ascent will mitigate the overall severe risk, as this
activity tracks eastward/northeastward into early evening.

..Cohen/Guyer.. 09/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36609626 37869544 39199441 38809383 37119440 36469558
            36609626